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Mikey's Short Term Trading Rules

1) Make up a list of stocks, commodities or ETF's to trade. This list should be names that have good earnings and high relative strength.
2) Monitor this list and throw out the weaker names
3) Buy only stocks or ETF's that are intermediate and daily up (green) and the market is Daily and intermediate term up (green)
4) Buy pullbacks on these stocks to the 20 and 50 day averages
Usually you get 4 to 6 20 day pullback buys and 2 or 3 50 day pullback buys in an intermediate term trend
5) More agressive traders can buy the 7 day average in the first 3 to 8 weeks of the uptrend.
6) Buy pullbacks not runups. A buy should not be easy or exciting but difficult and somewhat scary. DO NOT CHASE
7) Place stop at 5% below the buy price. Do not remove
8) Sell 3 to 5 days after the stock price takes out its most recent 2 week high with at least 15% gains
9) Uptrends that are 12 weeks or more may be ripe for a correction. The first 2 pullbacks to the 50 day are usually safe.
Intermediate term uptrends and downtrends generally last from 8 to 16 weeks with 12 weeks being the norm.
10) Shorting is a viable strategy in downtrends for experienced traders only. In general, reverse the above rules
11) Tweet Mikey @themarketshadow with questions or ideas

Wednesday, May 29, 2013

Market continues to weaken Utilities in a freefall

 The DJI declined 106 points with increased volume as declines led advancers 4 to 1.  The utilities index continued its decline and is now in a free fall heading for the 200 day average. The 1182 declines on the NYSE is the biggest since April 15 th.   It is notable that there were more new lows on the NYSE than new highs. The level to watch on the DJI  is 15180 which has held two pervious selloffs.

Gold and commodities showed some life today and with the sell off in the dollar and bear watching. International stocks are showing a lot of red and at this point the trends say go to the sidelines.

I am sure you have been reading and hearing how well real estate is doing.  The stock market is seeing some thing different.  LEN (Lennar) and Z (Zillow) both broke their daily uptrends.  They are now sells.  This is the beauty of watching trends rather than arguing with price and going with the majority opinion.

Mikey


DJI Close 15302.80 -106.59
    DJI Trend Summary
    Long Term UP/ Intermediate UP/ Daily UP/Short Term down
    Hourly down 5-23 15304
    Daily Uptrend: 13412 on 1-2 (100 trading days) (Ave trend 60 days-90 days)
    Intermediate Uptrend: at 13412 on 1-2( 100 trading days)
    Long Term Uptrend 11315 on 11-1-10  2 years + 6 months
    Mikey Short term Buy/Sell signal 5/28 SELL 15409
    IBD  MARKET uptrend resumes 4-29 14818
    Current Trading range   14444 -15542
    Step Down trading Range 14050 - 14444
    Resistence: 15542
    Support 1 15180 
    Support 2 14800
    Support 3 14400

    Average watch
    50 Hour Ave: 15348 price above 
    20 Day Ave: 15172 Price above
    50 Day Ave: 14846 Price above
    200 Day Ave: 13796 Price above
    20 Week Ave: 14523 Price above
    50 Week Ave: 13686 Price above
    200 Week Ave: 11934 Price above

    Indicators
    NYSE A/D -1842 NASDAQ A/D -974
    NYSE A/D line 100038 NASDAQ A/D line -837
    Put/Call  .82 10 day .86  Put Prem/Call Prem  .81 10 day .77
    % Stocks above 50 day average  65
    CNN  Fear/Greed Index 68  greed (100 Greed to 0 Fear)
    VIX 14.83 year range (27.73 to 11.05) Fear (25 high 11 low)
    Mikey total OB/OS Oscillator  Range (+550 to -550)  12
    Bulls 55.2  (58.8 to 21.3) Bears 18.8 (54.4 to 15.6)  Ratio 2.93
    Mutual Fund Purch/Redemp: 1.26 (.66 to 1.46) High public buy
    DJI PE ratio 17.1   DJI  Price/Book 3.75 (1.27 to 4.13)
    DJI Dividend Yield 2.39 (2.38 to 4.45)
    New Highs NYSE 61 NASDAQ 97
    New Lows  NYSE 138  NASDAQ 21


    Closing Prices
    US Stock
    DJI 15302.80 -106.59 DJT 6330.04 -67.73 SPX 1648.36-11.70
    DJU 484.95 -7.47  NASDAQ 3467.52 -21.37
    US Debt Markets
    US Gov: 3 mo .046% 2 yr .309% 5 yr 1.02% 10 yr 2.12% 30 yr  3.27%
    Mortgage Rates 30 year 3.75% 15 Yr 2.90%
    IEF(2-10 year) 105.60 +.43 TLT (US 20 yr) 115.18 +1.34
    Muni Bonds 109.49 -.12 Cal Muni (NCA) 10.10 -.02
    LQD (Inv Grade Corp) 118.29 -.05 High Yield 93.75 -.61
    Commodities 
    CRB Commodities Index 284.27 -1.64
    Gold 1391.30 +12.40 Silver 22.45 +.26
    Copper 3.30 -.02 Platinum 1453 -8.80
    Oil  93.13 -.40  Gasoline 2.80 -.02  Nat Gas 4.15 -.02

    Dollar Index 83.45 -.65
    US Dollar Long Term/ Intermediate Term / Daily Trend / Short term
     
    All Market Trends: 
     
    Commodities
    Gold: (GLD)    Long/ Intermediate   Daily / Short term
    Silver: (SLV)   Long  / Intermediate / Daily / Short term
    Copper:(JCC) Long / Intermediate / Daily  / Short term
    Oil: (USO)       Long / Intermediate / Daily/ Short term
    Gasoline (UGA) Long/ Intermediate / Daily/Short term
    Nat Gas:(UNG)Long Term/ Intermediate/ Daily/ Short term
    Commod (USCI) Long Term/ Intermediate / Daily / Short term
    Bond Markets
    US Bonds LT (TLT) Long Term/ Intermed/  Daily/ Short term
    US Corp BBB (LQD)  Long Term/ intermediate/Daily/ Short term 
    US Muni  (MUB)      Long Term  Intermed/ Daily/ Short Trend
    High Yield  (HYG)   Long Term/Intermed/ Daily/ Short term
    Utility stocks (XLU):Long Term/ Intermed/ Daily  / Short term
    Stocks
    US ($DJI)      Long Term/Interrmed Term/ Daily Trend/  Short term
    Europe(IEV) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    China (FXI)    Long Term/ intermed Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Brazil EWZ)  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    India  (PIN)   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Emerg Mkt(EEM) Long Term/ Interm Term/ Daily Trend/Short term
    Japan (EWJ) Long Term/ In termed Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term

    Stocks I like 
    Buy when Daily and Intermediate are green the short term turns green from
    red or price TRADES DOWN the 50 day average THE FIRST TIME
    Place stop @ -5% Sell 3 to 5 days after 20 day high or after stock double tops
    Buy the second cross of the short term ( flashes green then  red then green)
     
    (These are not reccomendations as I am not an analyst or financial planner
     
    AAPL Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    AET Long Term/ Intermediate Term / Daily Trend/ Short term
    AGU Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    AMDLong Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend  Short term
    APA  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend  Short term
    APC  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    ATHN Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    AUY Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    AXP Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    BP  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    BWLD  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    CAT Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    CLNE Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    CLF Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/Short term
    COG Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    COP Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/Short term
    COST Long Term/ Intermediate Term/  Daily Trend Short term
    CRM Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    DAL  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/  Daily Trend Short term
    ELLI Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    FB   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    FDX Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    GILD  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    GLW    Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    GMCR Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    GOOG Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    HAL Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    HFC Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term 
    KORS Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    LCC  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    LNKD Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    LEN  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    MCD Long Term/ Intermediate Term// Daily Trend  Short term
    MELI Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    NOV  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    ORB Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    P      Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    PAA  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    PG  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    PPP   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    QCOM Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    RAX  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    SLB Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    WAG  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    WFM Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Z  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term

    Short ETF's
        SPXU (2X Short S & P)  Long / Intermediate / Daily / Short
        SJB (Short High Yield bonds) Long / Intermediate / Daily/  Short
        VIXY (Short term VIX futures) Long /Intermediate / Daily/  Short
        FXP (2X Short China)              Long / Intermediate / Daily / Short
       

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