Posting Times

Posts will be between 8:30 PM to 10:00 PM PST
Mikey's Short Term Trading Rules

1) Make up a list of stocks, commodities or ETF's to trade. This list should be names that have good earnings and high relative strength.
2) Monitor this list and throw out the weaker names
3) Buy only stocks or ETF's that are intermediate and daily up (green) and the market is Daily and intermediate term up (green)
4) Buy pullbacks on these stocks to the 20 and 50 day averages
Usually you get 4 to 6 20 day pullback buys and 2 or 3 50 day pullback buys in an intermediate term trend
5) More agressive traders can buy the 7 day average in the first 3 to 8 weeks of the uptrend.
6) Buy pullbacks not runups. A buy should not be easy or exciting but difficult and somewhat scary. DO NOT CHASE
7) Place stop at 5% below the buy price. Do not remove
8) Sell 3 to 5 days after the stock price takes out its most recent 2 week high with at least 15% gains
9) Uptrends that are 12 weeks or more may be ripe for a correction. The first 2 pullbacks to the 50 day are usually safe.
Intermediate term uptrends and downtrends generally last from 8 to 16 weeks with 12 weeks being the norm.
10) Shorting is a viable strategy in downtrends for experienced traders only. In general, reverse the above rules
11) Tweet Mikey @themarketshadow with questions or ideas

Tuesday, May 28, 2013

Rates Ratchet to 1 year highs, Utilities hit again; Market trys and fails to double top

This was a decisive day for the bond markets. Rates stepped up to a 1 year high.  Utilities are now 5% off the high they hit on May 1. Higher rates are going to be a problem for many stocks especially the "high dividend payers".  The rally in stocks today plain flat fizzeled and I was not impressed.  It would not surprse me at all to see the 50 day average real soon.

Mikey


DJI Close 15409.39 +106.29
    DJI Trend Summary
    Long Term UP/ Intermediate UP/ Daily UP/Short Term up
    Hourly down 5-23 15304
    Daily Uptrend: 13412 on 1-2 (99 trading days) (Ave trend 60 days-90 days)
    Intermediate Uptrend: at 13412 on 1-2( 99 trading days)
    Long Term Uptrend 11315 on 11-1-10  2 years + 6 months
    Mikey Short term Buy/Sell signal 5/28 SELL 15409
    IBD  MARKET uptrend resumes 4-29 14818
    Current Trading range   14444 -15542
    Step Down trading Range 14050 - 14444
    Resistence: 15542
    Support 1 15180 
    Support 2 14800
    Support 3 14400

    Average watch
    50 Hour Ave: 15347 price above 
    20 Day Ave: 15138 Price above
    50 Day Ave: 14825 Price above
    200 Day Ave: 13785 Price above
    20 Week Ave: 14516 Price above
    50 Week Ave: 13686 Price above
    200 Week Ave: 11934 Price above

    Indicators
    NYSE A/D 478 NASDAQ A/D 1020
    NYSE A/D line 101880 NASDAQ A/D line +137
    Put/Call 1.12 10 day .82  Put Prem/Call Prem  .89 10 day .73
    % Stocks above 50 day average  73
    CNN  Fear/Greed Index 77  greed (100 Greed to 0 Fear)
    VIX 14.48 year range (27.73 to 11.05) Fear (25 high 11 low)
    Mikey total OB/OS Oscillator  Range (+550 to -550)  215
    Bulls 55.2  (58.8 to 21.3) Bears 18.8 (54.4 to 15.6)  Ratio 2.93
    Mutual Fund Purch/Redemp: 1.26 (.66 to 1.46) High public buy
    DJI PE ratio 17.0   DJI  Price/Book 3.75 (1.27 to 4.13)
    DJI Dividend Yield 2.41 (2.38 to 4.45)
    New Highs NYSE 261 NASDAQ 256
    New Lows  NYSE 48  NASDAQ 21


    Closing Prices
    US Stock
    DJI 15409.39 +106.29 DJT 6397.77 +2.07 SPX 1660.06 +10.46
    DJU 492.46 -8.79 NASDAQ 3488.89 +29.75
    US Debt Markets
    US Gov: 3 mo .046% 2 yr .309% 5 yr 1.02% 10 yr 2.16% 30 yr  3.31%
    Mortgage Rates 30 year 3.75% 15 Yr 2.90%
    IEF(2-10 year) 105.15 -1.27 TLT (US 20 yr) 113.99 -2.81
    Muni Bonds 109,61 -1.09 Cal Muni (NCA) 10.12 -.06
    LQD (Inv Grade Corp) 118.34 -1.15 High Yield 94.26 -.45
    Commodities 
    CRB Commodities Index 285.91 +1.02
    Gold 1379.60 +.70 Silver 22.19 -.30
    Copper 3.32 +.02  Platinum 1461.80 +9.90
    Oil  95.03 +1.50 Gasoline 2.82 -.01  Nat Gas 4.17 -.08

    Dollar Index 84.17 +.41
    US Dollar Long Term/ Intermediate Term / Daily Trend / Short term
     
    All Market Trends: 
     
    Commodities
    Gold: (GLD)    Long/ Intermediate   Daily / Short term
    Silver: (SLV)   Long  / Intermediate / Daily / Short term
    Copper:(JCC) Long / Intermediate / Daily  / Short term
    Oil: (USO)       Long / Intermediate / Daily/ Short term
    Gasoline (UGA) Long/ Intermediate / Daily/Short term
    Nat Gas:(UNG)Long Term/ Intermediate/ Daily/ Short term
    Commod (USCI) Long Term/ Intermediate / Daily / Short term
    Bond Markets
    US Bonds LT (TLT) Long Term/ Intermed/  Daily/ Short term
    US Corp BBB (LQD)  Long Term/ intermediate/Daily/ Short term 
    US Muni  (MUB)      Long Term  Intermed/ Daily/ Short Trend
    High Yield  (HYG)   Long Term/Intermed/ Daily/ Short term
    Utility stocks (XLU):Long Term/ Intermed/ Daily  / Short term
    Stocks
    US ($DJI)      Long Term/Interrmed Term/ Daily Trend/  Short term
    Europe(IEV) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    China (FXI)    Long Term/ intermed Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Brazil EWZ)  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    India  (PIN)   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Emerg Mkt(EEM) Long Term/ Interm Term/ Daily Trend/Short term
    Japan (EWJ) Long Term/ In termed Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term

    Stocks I like 
    Buy when Daily and Intermediate are green the short term turns green from
    red or price TRADES DOWN the 50 day average THE FIRST TIME
    Place stop @ -5% Sell 3 to 5 days after 20 day high or after stock double tops
    Buy the second cross of the short term ( flashes green then  red then green)
     
    (These are not reccomendations as I am not an analyst or financial planner
     
    AAPL Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    AET Long Term/ Intermediate Term / Daily Trend/ Short term
    AGU Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    AMDLong Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend  Short term
    APA  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend  Short term
    APC  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    ATHN Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    AUY Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    AXP Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    BP  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    BWLD  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    CAT Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    CLNE Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    CLF Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/Short term
    COG Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    COP Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/Short term
    COST Long Term/ Intermediate Term/  Daily Trend Short term
    CRM Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    DAL  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/  Daily Trend Short term
    ELLI Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    FB   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    FDX Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    GILD  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    GLW    Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    GMCR Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    HFC Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term 
    KORS Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    LCC  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    LNKD Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    LEN  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    MCD Long Term/ Intermediate Term// Daily Trend  Short term
    MELI Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    NOV  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    ORB Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    P      Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    PAA  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    PG  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    PPP   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    QCOM Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    RAX  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    SLB Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    WAG  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    WFM Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Z  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term

    Short ETF's
        SPXU (2X Short S & P)  Long / Intermediate / Daily / Short
        SJB (Short High Yield bonds) Long / Intermediate / Daily/  Short
        VIXY (Short term VIX futures) Long /Intermediate / Daily/  Short
        FXP (2X Short China)              Long / Intermediate / Daily / Short
       

Posted by at

No comments:

Post a Comment

Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom)