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Mikey's Short Term Trading Rules

1) Make up a list of stocks, commodities or ETF's to trade. This list should be names that have good earnings and high relative strength.
2) Monitor this list and throw out the weaker names
3) Buy only stocks or ETF's that are intermediate and daily up (green) and the market is Daily and intermediate term up (green)
4) Buy pullbacks on these stocks to the 20 and 50 day averages
Usually you get 4 to 6 20 day pullback buys and 2 or 3 50 day pullback buys in an intermediate term trend
5) More agressive traders can buy the 7 day average in the first 3 to 8 weeks of the uptrend.
6) Buy pullbacks not runups. A buy should not be easy or exciting but difficult and somewhat scary. DO NOT CHASE
7) Place stop at 5% below the buy price. Do not remove
8) Sell 3 to 5 days after the stock price takes out its most recent 2 week high with at least 15% gains
9) Uptrends that are 12 weeks or more may be ripe for a correction. The first 2 pullbacks to the 50 day are usually safe.
Intermediate term uptrends and downtrends generally last from 8 to 16 weeks with 12 weeks being the norm.
10) Shorting is a viable strategy in downtrends for experienced traders only. In general, reverse the above rules
11) Tweet Mikey @themarketshadow with questions or ideas

Thursday, May 30, 2013

Struggling and overvalued near the top

 Stocks are hanging on near the high's with interest rates rising and interest sensitive stocks selling off the commodity stocks are trying to come off the mat.

An article by Writer Jeff Cox of CNBC says that the past two quarters have seen stock prices zoom as earnings have stalled and says stock prices should be at 13500 to correct the difference.  The 200 day average is at 13806. I personally think that the punch bowl is being pulled and that the 200 month average is the target.  I say that because parabolic markets always correct at least to the 200 month which is the long term uptrend line.  The 200 month is at 10423.

Mikey


DJI Close 15324.53 +21.53
    DJI Trend Summary
    Long Term UP/ Intermediate UP/ Daily UP/Short Term down
    Hourly down 5-23 15304
    Daily Uptrend: 13412 on 1-2 (100 trading days) (Ave trend 60 days-90 days)
    Intermediate Uptrend: at 13412 on 1-2( 100 trading days)
    Long Term Uptrend 11315 on 11-1-10  2 years + 6 months
    Mikey Short term Buy/Sell signal 5/28 SELL 15409
    IBD  MARKET uptrend resumes 4-29 14818
    Current Trading range   14444 -15542
    Step Down trading Ra out ge 14050 - 14444
    Resistence: 15542
    Support 1 15180 
    Support 2 14800
    Support 3 14400

    Average watch
    50 Hour Ave: 15351 price above 
    20 Day Ave: 15197 Price above
    50 Day Ave: 14861 Price above
    200 Day Ave: 13806 Price above
    20 Week Ave: 14518 Price above
    50 Week Ave: 13686 Price above
    200 Week Ave: 11934 Price above

    Indicators
    NYSE A/D +583 NASDAQ A/D +957
    NYSE A/D line 100621 NASDAQ A/D line +120
    Put/Call  .76 10 day .82  Put Prem/Call Prem  .92 10 day .80
    % Stocks above 50 day average  68
    CNN  Fear/Greed Index 72  greed (100 Greed to 0 Fear)
    VIX 14.53 year range (27.73 to 11.05) Fear (25 high 11 low)
    Mikey total OB/OS Oscillator  Range (+550 to -550)  56
    Bulls 55.2  (58.8 to 21.3) Bears 18.8 (54.4 to 15.6)  Ratio 2.93
    Mutual Fund Purch/Redemp: 1.26 (.66 to 1.46) High public buy
    DJI PE ratio 17.1   DJI  Price/Book 3.78 (1.27 to 4.13)
    DJI Dividend Yield 2.41 (2.38 to 4.45)
    New Highs NYSE 144 NASDAQ 156
    New Lows  NYSE 76  NASDAQ 15


    Closing Prices
    US Stock
    DJI 15324.53 +21.53 DJT 6341.88 +11.84 SPX 3491.30 +23.78
    DJU 485.12 +.17 NASDAQ 3491.30 +23.78
    US Debt Markets
    US Gov: 3 mo .03% 2 yr .309% 5 yr 1.01% 10 yr 2.11% 30 yr  3.27%
    Mortgage Rates 30 year 3.75% 15 Yr 2.90%
    IEF(2-10 year) 105.60 - TLT (US 20 yr) 114.89 -.22
    Muni Bonds 109.18 +.04 Cal Muni (NCA) 10.02 -.08
    LQD (Inv Grade Corp) 118.44 +.15 High Yield 93.98  +.23
    Commodities 
    CRB Commodities Index 2183.76 -.51
    Gold 1411.50 +20.20 Silver 22.69 +.24
    Copper 3.32 +.02 Platinum 1482.70 +29.70
    Oil  93.61 +.48 Gasoline 2.81 +.01 Nat Gas 4.02 -.15

    Dollar Index 83.06 -.39
    US Dollar Long Term/ Intermediate Term / Daily Trend / Short term
     
    All Market Trends: 
     
    Commodities
    Gold: (GLD)    Long/ Intermediate   Daily / Short term
    Silver: (SLV)   Long  / Intermediate / Daily / Short term
    Copper:(JCC) Long / Intermediate / Daily  / Short term
    Oil: (USO)       Long / Intermediate / Daily/ Short term
    Gasoline (UGA) Long/ Intermediate / Daily/Short term
    Nat Gas:(UNG)Long Term/ Intermediate/ Daily/ Short term
    Commod (USCI) Long Term/ Intermediate / Daily / Short term
    Bond Markets
    US Bonds LT (TLT) Long Term/ Intermed/  Daily/ Short term
    US Corp BBB (LQD)  Long Term/ intermediate/Daily/ Short term 
    US Muni  (MUB)      Long Term  Intermed/ Daily/ Short Trend
    High Yield  (HYG)   Long Term/Intermed/ Daily/ Short term
    Utility stocks (XLU):Long Term/ Intermed/ Daily  / Short term
    Stocks
    US ($DJI)      Long Term/Interrmed Term/ Daily Trend/  Short term
    Europe(IEV) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    China (FXI)    Long Term/ intermed Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Brazil EWZ)  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    India  (PIN)   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Emerg Mkt(EEM) Long Term/ Interm Term/ Daily Trend/Short term
    Japan (EWJ) Long Term/ In termed Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term

    Stocks I like 
    Buy when Daily and Intermediate are green the short term turns green from
    red or price TRADES DOWN the 50 day average THE FIRST TIME
    Place stop @ -5% Sell 3 to 5 days after 20 day high or after stock double tops
    Buy the second cross of the short term ( flashes green then  red then green)
     
    (These are not reccomendations as I am not an analyst or financial planner
     
    AAPL Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    AET Long Term/ Intermediate Term / Daily Trend/ Short term
    AGU Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    AMDLong Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend  Short term
    APA  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend  Short term
    APC  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    ATHN Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    AUY Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    AXP Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    BP  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    BWLD  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    CAT Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    CLNE Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    CLF Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/Short term
    COG Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    COP Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/Short term
    COST Long Term/ Intermediate Term/  Daily Trend Short term
    CRM Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    DAL  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/  Daily Trend Short term
    ELLI Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    FB   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    FDX Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    GILD  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    GLW    Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    GMCR Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    GOOG Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    HAL Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    HFC Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term 
    KORS Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    LCC  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    LNKD Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    LEN  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    MCD Long Term/ Intermediate Term// Daily Trend  Short term
    MELI Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    NOV  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    ORB Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    P      Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    PAA  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    PG  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    PPP   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    QCOM Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    RAX  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    SLB Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    WAG  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    WFM Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Z  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term

    Short ETF's
        SPXU (2X Short S & P)  Long / Intermediate / Daily / Short
        SJB (Short High Yield bonds) Long / Intermediate / Daily/  Short
        VIXY (Short term VIX futures) Long /Intermediate / Daily/  Short
        FXP (2X Short China)              Long / Intermediate / Daily / Short
       

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