Posting Times

Posts will be between 8:30 PM to 10:00 PM PST
Mikey's Short Term Trading Rules

1) Make up a list of stocks, commodities or ETF's to trade. This list should be names that have good earnings and high relative strength.
2) Monitor this list and throw out the weaker names
3) Buy only stocks or ETF's that are intermediate and daily up (green) and the market is Daily and intermediate term up (green)
4) Buy pullbacks on these stocks to the 20 and 50 day averages
Usually you get 4 to 6 20 day pullback buys and 2 or 3 50 day pullback buys in an intermediate term trend
5) More agressive traders can buy the 7 day average in the first 3 to 8 weeks of the uptrend.
6) Buy pullbacks not runups. A buy should not be easy or exciting but difficult and somewhat scary. DO NOT CHASE
7) Place stop at 5% below the buy price. Do not remove
8) Sell 3 to 5 days after the stock price takes out its most recent 2 week high with at least 15% gains
9) Uptrends that are 12 weeks or more may be ripe for a correction. The first 2 pullbacks to the 50 day are usually safe.
Intermediate term uptrends and downtrends generally last from 8 to 16 weeks with 12 weeks being the norm.
10) Shorting is a viable strategy in downtrends for experienced traders only. In general, reverse the above rules
11) Tweet Mikey @themarketshadow with questions or ideas

Friday, December 14, 2012

Muni Bonds hit the skids

    US Municipal bonds took it on the chin today and the daily trend turned down with the intermediate term at neutral.  This is similar to the move just experienced by the long term US bond market earlier this week.

    Stocks pulled back for the third day in a row to just above the 50 day average.  The NASDAQ is now below its 50 day.  This put the young uptrend in question.
    Put/Call ratios continue to run a very low .75 0on the 10 day and .79 today even after a 3 day pullback.

    In commodities, oil rallied and has a short term up signal along with gasoline. Gold and Silver continue to limp along below their 50 day averages and are not responding to the lower dollar which has all for trends down.  Natural gas, which is my favorite commodity in the long run is back to just below its 200 day average, closing at 3.31 all trend s are now down and I will avoid it until I see the trends turn up.

    AAPL 507.50 is back to its Feb 15 th close and has almost given up its gain for the year. On the plus side it looks like it is forming a positive divergence so a whipsaw reversal to the upside is possible in the near term.

    Mikey
    DJI Trend Summary 
    Daily Uptrend  13248 on 12-11 
    Intermediate Uptrend at 13034 on 11-7 5 days old
    Long Term Uptrend 11315 on 11-1-10 2 years old
    Last high 9-14 13653  Last Low  11-15 12471
    20 day average sell offs  since uptrend began 
    50 day averageselloffs since uptrend began
    IBD Market in confirmed uptrend 11-23-12  13009
    Long Term UP/ Intermediate Term down/ Daily Trend Neutral/Short Term up
    DJI Close 13135.01 -35.71
    Step up range: 13344 - 13650
    Current trading range 13043 - 13344
    Step down support range 12471- 12973

    Average watch
    50 Hour Ave: 13175 Price below
    20 Day Ave: 13002 Price above
    50 Day Ave: 13119 Price above (no long positions if this line is red)
    20 Week Ave: 13197 Pricebelow
    50 Week Ave: 12968 Price above
    200 Week Ave 11052 Price above

    Overbought/Oversold Oscillator(Mikey reading) +150  to -150
    Take profits  at +150 readings  buy or cover at -150 readings
    3 day -60 N  7 day +10 N 20 day +128 50 day +32 N
    MACD Readings
    MACD Crosses: Negative cross = consolidation/correction Positive cross=uptrend
    Short term (50 hour)down (6 Hrs) signal 12-14
    MACD Hourly -14.21
    Daily trend (50 day) Up 4 days 12-11
    MACD Daily +41.91 Positive Cross 11-23
    Intermediate trend (50 week) up (7 days).signal 12-5 12932
    MACD Weekly (+46.51) Negative cross  10-23-12
    Long term trend (200 week) Up 25 months)...signal 12/1/10 11577
    MACD Monthly (+523.33) Negative Cross 11/8/12.

    Volume Readings
    Volume (Millions) NYSE 3121  NASDAQ 1756
    Advance/Decline NYSE -207 NASDAQ -45
    Mikey NYSE A/D line +67246 Mikey NASDAQ A/D line -15786
    Trader Psychology
    Put/Call day .79 10 day .75  Put Prem/Call Prem 1.00 10 day .98
    New Highs NYSE 63   NASDAQ 35  New Lows  NYSE 34 NASDAQ 39
      
    Closing Prices

    US Stocks
    DJIA 13135.01 -35.71 S/P 500 1413.38 -5.87 NASDAQ 2971.33 -20.83
    DJT 5786.95 +4.79 DJU 451.10 -.39
    US Debt Markets
    US Gov rates: 6 mo .145% 2 yr .246% 5 yr .69% 10 yr 1.70% 30 yr  2.87%
    IEF (US 7-10 yr) 108.13 +,.26 TLT (20 yr) 123.43 +.75 High Yield 93.26 -.07
    MUB(NatMuni) 111.18 -1.18 Cal Muni(NCA)10.22 -.07
    BND Total Bnd Ind 84.54 +.05
    Commodities 
    CRB Commodities Index 294.89 +2.19
    Gold  1697.00 +.20 Silver 32.29 -.02
    Copper 3.68 +.02 Platinum 1614.50 +1.70
    Oil 86.73 +.84 RBOB 2.66 +.06 Nat Gas 3.31 -.03
    US Dollar Index and World Currencies
    Euro 1.3065 +.0082 Pound 1.5981 +.0047 Swiss Franc 1.0713 +.0066
    Yen .11745 +.0013 Aussie 1.0570 +.0034 Canadian Dollar  1.0082 -.0016
    Dollar Index 79.56 -.35
     
    All Market Trends:
    (long positions only when Intermediate term and Daily Trend is green)
    Commodities
    Gold:      LongTerm/ Intermediate Term  Daily Trend/ Short term
    Silver:    Long Term / Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Coppe:Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Oil:         Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Gasoline Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/  Short term
    Nat Gas :Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    CRB        Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Bond Markets
    US Bonds LT Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/  Short term
    Intl  Treas       Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend /Short term
    Intl Corp          Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/  Short term
    US Muni        Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend   Short Trend
    High Yield     Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Currencies
    Aussie DollarLong Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ / Short term
    Brit PD         Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Euro             Long Term/Intermediate Term/Daily Trend Short term
    Yen               Long Term/ Intermediate Term/Daily Trend/  Short term
    Swiss            Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Can Dollar   Long term/ Intermediate Term Daily Trend/ Short term
    US Dollar   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Stocks
    US      Long Term
    / Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/  Short term
    Europe Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    China     Long Term/ Intermediate Term Daily Trend/ / Short term
    Brazil  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    India   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Emerg Mkts   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/Short term
    Japan Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
     

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