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Mikey's Short Term Trading Rules

1) Make up a list of stocks, commodities or ETF's to trade. This list should be names that have good earnings and high relative strength.
2) Monitor this list and throw out the weaker names
3) Buy only stocks or ETF's that are intermediate and daily up (green) and the market is Daily and intermediate term up (green)
4) Buy pullbacks on these stocks to the 20 and 50 day averages
Usually you get 4 to 6 20 day pullback buys and 2 or 3 50 day pullback buys in an intermediate term trend
5) More agressive traders can buy the 7 day average in the first 3 to 8 weeks of the uptrend.
6) Buy pullbacks not runups. A buy should not be easy or exciting but difficult and somewhat scary. DO NOT CHASE
7) Place stop at 5% below the buy price. Do not remove
8) Sell 3 to 5 days after the stock price takes out its most recent 2 week high with at least 15% gains
9) Uptrends that are 12 weeks or more may be ripe for a correction. The first 2 pullbacks to the 50 day are usually safe.
Intermediate term uptrends and downtrends generally last from 8 to 16 weeks with 12 weeks being the norm.
10) Shorting is a viable strategy in downtrends for experienced traders only. In general, reverse the above rules
11) Tweet Mikey @themarketshadow with questions or ideas

Wednesday, December 12, 2012

New Uptrend hits Fed and possible reversal

    The Fed is going to buy 1 trillion in assets 2013.  Do fight the Fed. OK fine but no one really knows what the Fed is doing.  It is the ultimate trader and we don't really know what they are doing.  What we can do is stay on the right side of the trend.  The most recent is an uptrend but it is only 2 days old and may have reversed today.  The bond market took a dive all day and is now in a daily downtrend and close to going negative on the intermediate term.  This is going against the keep rates down for the next 3 years theme that is being placed out there by the experts. The news says rates stay low the trend says get out of bonds.  The correct approach is to lighten up on the bonds and honor the trend because as we know talk is cheap and easy, price calls the tune. 

    The dollar sold off and after the close Gold and Silver were nailed.  Watch the action on the asset markets tomorrow and honor any trend changes.

    Mikey
    DJI Trend Summary 
    Daily Uptrend  13248 on 12-11 
    Intermediate Uptrend at 13034 on 11-7 5 days old
    Long Term Uptrend 11315 on 11-1-10 2 years old
    Last high 9-14 13653  Last Low  11-15 12471
    20 day average sell offs  since uptrend began 
    50 day averageselloffs since uptrend began
    IBD Market in confirmed uptrend 11-23-12  13009
    Long Term UP/ Intermediate Term down/ Daily Trend Neutral/Short Term up
    DJI Close 13245.45 -2.99
    Step up range: 13344 - 13650
    Current trading range 13043 - 13344
    Step down support range 12471- 12973

    Average watch
    50 Hour Ave: 13124 Price above
    20 Day Ave: 12942 Price above
    50 Day Ave: 13133 Price above (no long positions if this line is red)
    20 Week Ave: 13203 Price above
    50 Week Ave: 12970 Price above
    200 Week Ave 11049 Price above

    Overbought/Oversold Oscillator(Mikey reading) +150  to -150
    Take profits  at +150 readings  buy or cover at -150 readings
    3 day +53 N  7 day +52 N 20 day +98 N  50 day +55 N
    MACD Readings
    MACD Crosses: Negative cross = consolidation/correction Positive cross=uptrend
    Short term (50 hour) up (96 Hrs) signal 12-4
    MACD Hourly +49.01
    Daily trend (50 day) Up 2 days 12-11
    MACD Daily +37.39 Positive Cross 11-23
    Intermediate trend (50 week) up (5 days).signal 12-5 12932
    MACD Weekly (+55.15) Negative cross  10-23-12
    Long term trend (200 week) Up 25 months)...signal 12/1/10 11577
    MACD Monthly (+532.29) Negative Cross 11/8/12.

    Volume Readings
    Volume (Millions) NYSE 3594  NASDAQ 1721
    Advance/Decline NYSE -89 NASDAQ -519
    Mikey NYSE A/D line +68830  Mikey NASDAQ A/D line -15122
    Trader Psychology
    Put/Call day .61 10 day .80 Put Prem/Call Prem  .82 10 day .97
    New Highs NYSE 132  NASDAQ 81  New Lows  NYSE 27 NASDAQ 25
      
    Closing Prices

    US Stocks
    DJIA 13245.45 -2.99 S/P 500 1428.48 +.64 NASDAQ 3013.81 -8.41
    DJT 5174.74 -15.21 DJU 453.43 -.64
    US Debt Markets
    US Gov rates: 6 mo .145% 2 yr .246% 5 yr .66% 10 yr 1.69% 30 yr  2.89%
    IEF (US 7-10 yr) 122.58 -1.45 TLT (20 yr) 123.94 -1.04 High Yield 93.65 +.27
    MUB(NatMuni) 112.69 -.17 Cal Muni(NCA)10.31 +.01
    BND Total Bnd Ind 84.66 -.13
    Commodities 
    CRB Commodities Index 295.19 +1.35
    Gold  1717.90 +8.90 Silver 33.78 +.76
    Copper 3.71 -.02 Platinum 1646.40 +6.40
    Oil 86.77 +.98 RBOB 2.64 +.03 Nat Gas 3.38 -.03
    US Dollar Index and World Currencies
    Euro 1.2977 +.0069  Pound 1.5972 +.0039 Swiss Franc 1.0615 +.0064
    Yen .11797 -.0091 Aussie 1.0559 +.0009 Canadian Dollar  1.0101 +.0020
    Dollar Index 79.81 -.59
     
    All Market Trends:
    (long positions only when Intermediate term and Daily Trend is green)
    Commodities
    Gold:      LongTerm/ Intermediate Term  Daily Trend// Short term
    Silver:    Long Term / Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Copper  :Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Oil:         Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Gasoline Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/  Short term
    Nat Gas :Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    CRB        Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Bond Markets
    US Bonds LT Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/  Short term
    Intl  Treas       Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend /Short term
    Intl Corp          Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ / Short term
    US Muni        Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend   Short Trend
    High Yield     Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ / Short term
    Currencies
    Aussie DollarLong Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ / Short term
    Brit PD         Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Euro             Long Term/Intermediate Term/Daily Trend Short term
    Yen               Long Term/ Intermediate Term/Daily Trend/  Short term
    Swiss            Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Can Dollar   Long term/ Intermediate Term Daily Trend/ Short term
    US Dollar   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Stocks
    US      Long Term    / Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/  Short term
    Europe Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    China     Long Term/ Intermediate Term Daily Trend/ / Short term
    Brazil  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    India   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Emerg Mkts   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/Short term
    Japan Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
     
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