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Mikey's Short Term Trading Rules

1) Make up a list of stocks, commodities or ETF's to trade. This list should be names that have good earnings and high relative strength.
2) Monitor this list and throw out the weaker names
3) Buy only stocks or ETF's that are intermediate and daily up (green) and the market is Daily and intermediate term up (green)
4) Buy pullbacks on these stocks to the 20 and 50 day averages
Usually you get 4 to 6 20 day pullback buys and 2 or 3 50 day pullback buys in an intermediate term trend
5) More agressive traders can buy the 7 day average in the first 3 to 8 weeks of the uptrend.
6) Buy pullbacks not runups. A buy should not be easy or exciting but difficult and somewhat scary. DO NOT CHASE
7) Place stop at 5% below the buy price. Do not remove
8) Sell 3 to 5 days after the stock price takes out its most recent 2 week high with at least 15% gains
9) Uptrends that are 12 weeks or more may be ripe for a correction. The first 2 pullbacks to the 50 day are usually safe.
Intermediate term uptrends and downtrends generally last from 8 to 16 weeks with 12 weeks being the norm.
10) Shorting is a viable strategy in downtrends for experienced traders only. In general, reverse the above rules
11) Tweet Mikey @themarketshadow with questions or ideas

Wednesday, July 3, 2013

Remember the line in the sand

The line in the sand at 15180 was broken on 6-5 and again on 6-20 and on both occasions a quick sell off occurred. the line in the sand is a magnet for equilibrium.  It is called the pivot point.  The area where the the market is in balance and the traders us as a decision point. I believe we are going there again after the jobs number on Friday.  The number itself is not important because it is made up what we want to see is who wins the battle over this line. Draw a horizontal line on your graph at this level.  Short below that number go long above it. I think the whip saws are about to end and there will be a clear winner.

Mikey


DJI Close 14932.41 -42.55
    DJI Trend Summary
    Long Term UP/ Intermediate UP/ Daily down/Short Term NEUT
    Hourly up 6-27 14928
    Daily downtrend: 15037 on 6-20 9 trading days
    Intermediate Uptrend: at 13412 on 1-2 ( 124 trading days)
    Long Term Uptrend 11315 on 11-1-10  2 years + 8 months
    IBD confirmed downtrend 6-20  14758
    Current Trading range   14444 -15542
    Step Down trading Range 14050 - 14444
    Resistence: 15542
    Resistance 15180 
    Resistance 14844 
    Support  14400     
    Average watch
    50 Hour Ave: 14930 price above
    20 Day Ave: 15010 Price below
    50 Day Ave: 15062 Price below
    200 Day Ave: 14027 Price above
    20 Week Ave: 14783 Price above
    50 Week Ave: 13905 Price above
    200 Week Ave: 12072 Price above
    50 Month Ave: 11959 Price above

    Indicators
    NYSE A/D -648 NASDAQ A/D +322
    NYSE A/D line  96474  NASDAQ A/D line +320
    Put/Call .99 10 day .97 Put Prem/Call Prem  .97 10 day 1.10
    % Stocks above 50 day average  54
    CNN  Fear/Greed Index 32 fear (100 Greed to 0 Fear)
    Mikey 3 day +1 7 day +161 20 day -15 50 day +48
    Mikey total OB/OS Oscillator  Range (+550 to -550) +195
    Bulls 43.8  (58.8 to 21.3) Bears 20.8 (54.4 to 15.6)  Ratio 2.10
    Mutual Fund Purch/Redemp: 1.13 (.66 to 1.46) High public buy
    DJI PE ratio 16.0   DJI  Price/Book 3.67 (1.27 to 4.13)
    DJI Dividend Yield 2.47 (2.38 to 4.45)
    NYSE Vol (in Millions) 1902 NASDAQ Vol 901
    New Highs NYSE 52 NASDAQ 114
    New Lows  NYSE 42 NASDAQ 20


    Closing Prices
    US Stock
    DJI 14988.55 +56.14 DJT 6194.74 -18.98 SPX 1615.41 +1.33
    DJU 479.14 -.81 NASDAQ 3443.67 +10.27
    US Debt Markets
    US Gov: 3 mo .043% 2 yr .363% 5 yr 1.42% 10 yr 2.51% 30 yr  3.49%
    Mortgage Rates 30 year 4.40% 15 Yr 3.45%
    Yield:  Investment grade 3.33   High Yield 6.60
    IEF(2-10 year) 102.15 -.29 TLT (US 20 yr) 110.10 -.24
    Muni Bonds 105.00 -.69 Cal Muni (NCA) 9.33 -.01
    LQD (Inv Grade Corp) 113.61 -.33 High Yield 90.68 +.07
    Commodities 
    CRB Commodities Index 281.79  +2.10
    Gold 1251.90 +8.50   Silver 19.70 +.39
    Copper 3.17 +.03  Platinum 1346.80 -21.00
    Oil 101.24 +1.64 Gasoline 2.84 +.05 Nat Gas 3.69 +.03
    Dollar Index 83.50 -.27

    US Dollar Long Term/ Intermediate Term / Daily Trend / Short term
     
    All Market Trends: 
     
    Commodities
    Gold: (GLD)    Long/ Intermediate   Daily / Short term
    Silver: (SLV)   Long  / Intermediate / Daily / Short term
    Copper:(JCC) Long / Intermediate / Daily  / Short term
    Oil: (USO)       Long / Intermediate / Daily/ Short term
    Gasoline (UGA) Long/ Intermediate / Daily/Short term
    Nat Gas:(UNG)Long Term/ Intermediate/ Daily/ Short term
    Commod (USCI) Long Term/ Intermediate / Daily / Short term
    Bond Markets
    US Bonds LT (TLT) Long Term/ Intermed/  Daily/ Short term
    US Corp BBB (LQD)  Long Term/ intermediate/Daily/ Short term 
    US Muni  (MUB)      Long Term  Intermed/ Daily/ Short Trend
    High Yield  (HYG)   Long Term/Intermed/ Daily/ Short term
    Utility stocks (XLU):Long Term/ Intermed/ Daily  / Short term
    Stocks
    US ($DJI)      Long Term/Interrmed Term/ Daily Trend/  Short term
    Europe(IEV) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    China (FXI)    Long Term/ intermed Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Brazil EWZ)  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    India  (PIN)   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Emerg Mkt(EEM) Long Term/ Interm Term/ Daily Trend/Short term
    Japan (EWJ) Long Term/ In termed Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term

    Stocks I like
    These are not recommendations as I am not an analyst or financial planner
    Buy Signal = Daily and Intermediate green, short term turns green 
    IF Long and Intermediate are green buy sell off  to 50 day average
    Buy Put 5% out of the money with less than 1 month to expiration
    or place stop 5% below purchase price
    Sell = price returns to pre selloff highs
      
    AAPL Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    AET Long Term/ Intermediate Term / Daily Trend/ Short term
    AGU Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    AMZN Long Term/ Intermediate Term / Daily Trend/ Short term
    APA  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend  Short term
    APC  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    ATHN Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    AUY Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    AXP Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    BOFI Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    BP  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    BWLD  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    CAT Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    CLNE Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term 
    COG Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    COP Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/Short term
    COST Long Term/ Intermediate Term/  Daily Trend Short term
    CRM Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    DAL  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/  Daily Trend Short term
    DDD Long Term/ Intermediate Term/  Daily Trend Short term
    DISCK Long Term/ Intermediate Term/  Daily Trend Short term
    ELLI Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    FB   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    FDX Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    GILD  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    GLW    Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    GMCR Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    GOOG Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    HAL Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    HD  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    HEI Long Term/ Intermediate Term/  Daily Trend Short term
    HFC Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    IT    Long Term/ Intermediate Term/  Daily Trend Short term
    KORS Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    KMX Long Term/ Intermediate Term/  Daily Trend Short term
    LCC  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    LNKD Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    LEN  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    MCD Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    MELI Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    NOV  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    ORB Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    P      Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    PAA  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    PG  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    QCOM Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    RAX  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    SBUX Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    SLB Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    TM   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    WAG  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    WFM Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    XONE Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Z  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term

    Short ETF's
          SH ( Short S & P)              Long / Intermediate / Daily / Short
          SJB (Short High Yield bonds)   Long / Intermediate / Daily/  Short
          TBT (2X Short 20+Year GOV) Long / Intermediate / Daily / Short
          VIXY (Short term VIX futures) Long /Intermediate / Daily/  Short
          FXP (2X Short China)                Long / Intermediate / Daily / Short
          SEF (Short Financial Index)      Long / Intermediate / Daily / Short
          DOG (Short DJI)                        Long / Intermediate / Daily / Short
          SCO   (2X Short Oil)                  Long / Intermediate / Daily / Short
          DUG  (2X Short Oil Stocks)       Long / Intermediate / Daily / Short
          SMN (2X Sort Basic Materials)  Long / Intermediate / Daily / Short
       

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