Mikey... The Market Shadow

Mikey's Short Term Trading Rules

1) Make up a list of stocks, commodities or ETF's to trade. This list should be names that have good earnings and high relative strength.
2) Monitor this list and throw out the weaker names
3) Buy only stocks or ETF's that are intermediate and daily up (green) and the market is Daily and intermediate term up (green)
4) Buy pullbacks on these stocks to the 20 and 50 day averages
Usually you get 4 to 6 20 day pullback buys and 2 or 3 50 day pullback buys in an intermediate term trend
5) More agressive traders can buy the 7 day average in the first 3 to 8 weeks of the uptrend.
6) Buy pullbacks not runups. A buy should not be easy or exciting but difficult and somewhat scary. DO NOT CHASE
7) Place stop at 5% below the buy price. Do not remove
8) Sell 3 to 5 days after the stock price takes out its most recent 2 week high with at least 15% gains
9) Uptrends that are 12 weeks or more may be ripe for a correction. The first 2 pullbacks to the 50 day are usually safe.
Intermediate term uptrends and downtrends generally last from 8 to 16 weeks with 12 weeks being the norm.
10) Shorting is a viable strategy in downtrends for experienced traders only. In general, reverse the above rules
11) Tweet Mikey @themarketshadow with questions or ideas

Tuesday, July 23, 2013

Mikey's trading account

7-22-13
BUY 400 HFC 42.83 with Put hedge w/ 4 Aug 38 Put Hedge @ .33
Objective 44.85
Stop 41.49

7-24-13
Buy 2000 TVIX 1.90 Obj 2.50 No stop
Short 200 AXP 75.46 W/2 Jul 26 77.50 call Hedge @ .08
Objective 71.75 Stop 79

More trades on Mikeytrading.blogspot

Monday, July 15, 2013

Mikey, The Market Shadow, is moving into history

I decided to write this blog in 2008 because I felt there was a need for the financial story to be told by a writer that had nothing to gain from the publishing of the story. I only wanted to tell the story truthfully and show the view of the market that I had seen for the previous 34 years. It was hard for me to watch the lies I saw every day in the press and keep my mouth shut. I knew that "their" story would always win out but I wanted to at least give the public my version of the truth.

I have been true to my message for the past 5 years and at this point feel that I have given as much as I can. This blog takes 2.5 hours to put together every day and my readership only amounts to about 20 on a good day. I am not complaining because I love doing it but the time has come to just spend the time trading my own account.

I end this blog with the market in the most extended and precarious position I have seen since the Summer of 2008. It is my belief that the world markets are on the verge of collapse and the US market has substantial risk. I am a trader and have no problem selling any position at any time. I have along time ago checked my ego when I trade. I have very few opinions on anything but trade with the trends. That being said, I am highly opinionated about what is going on today. If you are not a trader then I would advise taking most of your money off the table now. The risk/reward is lousy.

I wish to thank those of you that read me on a regular basis and wish nothing but the best for all of you.

Thanks and good luck,

Mikey

Corporate America is watching building a profile

Like dozens of other brick-and-mortar retailers, Nordstrom wanted to learn more about its customers — how many came through the doors, how many were repeat visitors — the kind of information that e-commerce sites like Amazon have in spades. So last fall the company started testing new technology that allowed it to track customers' movements by following the Wi-Fi signals from their smartphones.

Nordstrom's experiment is part of a movement by retailers to gather data about in-store shoppers' behavior and moods, using video surveillance and signals from their cellphones and apps to learn information as varied as their sex, how many minutes they spend in the candy aisle and how long they look at merchandise before buying it.

RetailNext, uses video footage to study how shoppers navigate, determining, say, that men spend only one minute in the coat department, which may help a store streamline its men's outerwear layout. It also differentiates men from women, and children from adults. RetailNext, based in San Jose, Calif., adds data from shoppers' smartphones to deduce even more specific patterns. If a shopper's phone is set to look for Wi-Fi networks, a store that offers Wi-Fi can pinpoint where the shopper is in the store, within a 10-foot radius, even if the shopper does not connect to the network, said Tim Callan, RetailNext's chief marketing officer.

The store can also recognize returning shoppers, because mobile devices send unique identification codes when they search for networks. That means stores can now tell how repeat customers behave and the average time between visits.

Brickstream uses video information to watch shoppers. The company, based near Atlanta, sells a $1,500 stereoscopic camera that separates adults from children, and counts people in different parts of a store to determine which aisles are popular and how many cash registers to open.
Nomi, of New York, uses Wi-Fi to track customers' behavior in a store, but goes one step further by matching a phone with an individual.

When a shopper has volunteered some personal information, either by downloading a retailer's app or providing an e-mail address when using in-store Wi-Fi, Nomi pulls up a profile of that customer — the number of recent visits, what products that customer was looking at on the Web site last night, purchase history. The store then has access to that profile.

"I walk into Macy's, Macy's knows that I just entered the store, and they're able to give me a personalized recommendation through my phone the moment I enter the store," said Corey Capasso, Nomi's president. "It's literally bringing the Amazon experience into the store."

Speaking of Amazon, last week I was on Amazon looking for audiobooks. The next day I logged on to the CNBC website and low and behold there was an ad for audiobooks right there on their homepage.

Mikey

Friday, July 12, 2013

Gold looks like it is going to be in play

This week was Fed sell out week. Everything and every price you pay is in some way being controlled by the Central bank. There is no auction market taking place anywhere. Prices are being directly controlled. The elected government can only watch and cheer from the sidelines. Therefore, if we are going to play the market we have to guess what message the Fed wants to send next. I am guessing that the Fed wants to send the inflation message next. The charts on Gold and commodities are basing and I think Gold is going to be in play very soon.

Mikey

DJI Close 15543.38 -7.54

DJI Trend Summary
Long Term UP/ Intermediate UP/ Daily down/Short Term up
Hourly up 6-27 14928
Daily uptrend 14978 on 7-5 6 trading days
Intermediate Uptrend: at 13412 on 1-2 ( 130 trading days)
Long Term Uptrend 11315 on 11-1-10 2 years + 8 months
IBD confirmed uptrend 7-11 15460
Current Trading range 14444 -15542
Step Down trading Range 14050 - 14444
Resistence: 15542
Support 15180
Support 14844
Support 14400

Average watch

50 Hour Ave: 15239 price above
20 Day Ave: 15063 Price above

50 Day Ave: 15131 Price above
200 Day Ave: 14079 Price above

20 Week Ave: 14863 Price above

50 Week Ave: 13956 Price above
200 Week Ave: 12102 Price above
50 Month Ave: 11968 Price above

Indicators
NYSE A/D +14 NASDAQ A/D +3582.94 +4.64
NYSE A/D line 101266 NASDAQ A/D line +4045 NH
Put/Call .86 10 day .94 Put Prem/Call Prem .71 10 day .95
% Stocks above 50 day average 74
CNN Fear/Greed Index 58 (100 Greed to 0 Fear)
Mikey 3 day +97 7 day +118 20 day +104 50 day +41

Mikey total OB/OS Oscillator Range (+550 to -550) +360
Bulls 43.8 (58.8 to 21.3) Bears 20.8 (54.4 to 15.6) Ratio 2.10
Mutual Fund Purch/Redemp: 1.13 (.66 to 1.46) High public buy
DJI PE ratio 16.6 DJI Price/Book 3.75 (1.27 to 4.13)
DJI Dividend Yield 2.38(2.38 to 4.45)
NYSE Vol (in Millions) 2965 NASDAQ Vol 1525
New Highs NYSE 254 NASDAQ 311

New Lows NYSE 17 NASDAQ 10

Closing Prices

US Stock
DJI 15543.38 -7.54 DJT 6472.32 +6450.73 -21.59 SPX 1675.50 +.48

DJU 496.78 +.73 NASDAQ 3582.94 +4.64

US Debt Markets

US Gov: 3 mo .038% 2 yr .343% 5 yr 1.42% 10 yr 2.59% 30 yr 3.63%

Mortgage Rates 30 year 4.48% 15 Yr 3.50%
Yield: Investment grade 3.30 High Yield 6.35
IEF(2-10 year) 101.85 -.08 TLT (US 20 yr) 107.78 -.02

Muni Bonds 105.49 +.48 Cal Muni (NCA) 9.17 -.09

LQD (Inv Grade Corp) 113.90 -.28 High Yield 92.56 -.09

Commodities

CRB Commodities Index 286.66 -.02

Gold 1277.60 -2.30 Silver 19.79 -.16
Copper 3.16 -.02 Platinum 1406.90 -.70
Oil 105.95 +1.04 Gasoline 3.12 +.09 Nat Gas 3.64 +.03
Dollar Index 83.16 +.25

US Dollar Long Term/ Intermediate Term / Daily Trend / Short term

All Market Trends:

Commodities

Gold: (GLD) Long/ Intermediate Daily / Short term

Silver: (SLV) Long / Intermediate / Daily / Short term

Copper:(JCC) Long / Intermediate / Daily / Short term

Oil: (USO) Long / Intermediate / Daily/ Short term

Gasoline (UGA) Long/ Intermediate / Daily/Short term

Nat Gas:(UNG)Long Term/ Intermediate/ Daily/ Short term

Commod (USCI) Long Term/ Intermediate / Daily / Short term

Bond Markets

US Bonds LT (TLT) Long Term/ Intermed/ Daily/ Short term
US Corp BBB (LQD) Long Term/ intermediate/Daily/ Short term
US Muni (MUB) Long Term Intermed/ Daily/ Short Trend

High Yield (HYG) Long Term/Intermed/ Daily/ Short term
Utility stocks (XLU):Long Term/ Intermed/ Daily / Short term

Stocks
US ($DJI) Long Term/Interrmed Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term

Europe(IEV) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term

China (FXI) Long Term/ intermed Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term

Brazil EWZ) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term

India (PIN) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term

Emerg Mkt(EEM) Long Term/ Interm Term/ Daily Trend/Short term

Japan (EWJ) Long Term/ In termed Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term

Stocks I like
These are not recommendations as I am not an analyst or financial planner

Buy Signal = Daily and Intermediate green, short term turns green

IF Long and Intermediate are green buy sell off to 50 day average
Buy Put 5% out of the money with less than 1 month to expiration
or place stop 5% below purchase price
Sell = price returns to pre selloff highs

AAPL Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
AET Long Term/ Intermediate Term / Daily Trend/ Short term
AGU Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
AMZN Long Term/ Intermediate Term / Daily Trend/ Short term

APA Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend Short term
APC Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term

ATHN Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
ATW Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term

AUY Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
AXP Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
BEAM Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
DIS Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
BOFI Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
BP Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
BWLD Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
CAT Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term

CLNE Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term

COG Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
COP Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/Short term
COST Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend Short term

CRM Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
DAL Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend Short term

DDD Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend Short term
DISCK Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend Short term
ELLI Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term

FB Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
FDX Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
GILD Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
GLW Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term

GMCR Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
GOOG Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
GTLS Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
HAL Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
HD Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
HEI Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend Short term
HFC Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
IT Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend Short term

KORS Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
KMI Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
KMX Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend Short term
LCC Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term

LNKD Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
LEN Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
LNG Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
LOW Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
MCD Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term

MELI Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
NOV Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
OII Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term

ORB Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
P Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term

PAA Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
PG Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
QCOM Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term

RAX Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
SBUX Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
SLB Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
TM Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
WAG Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
WFM Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
XONE Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
Z Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term

Short ETF's

          SH ( Short S & P)              Long / Intermediate / Daily / Short
        SJB (Short High Yield bonds) Long / Intermediate / Daily/ Short
          TBT (2X Short 20+Year GOV) Long / Intermediate / Daily / Short
         VIXY (Short term VIX futures) Long /Intermediate / Daily/ Short
          FXP (2X Short China)                Long / Intermediate / Daily / Short
          SEF (Short Financial Index)      Long / Intermediate / Daily / Short
        DOG (Short DJI)                       Long / Intermediate / Daily / Short
          SCO   (2X Short Oil)                  Long / Intermediate / Daily / Short
         DUG (2X Short Oil Stocks)       Long / Intermediate / Daily / Short
          SMN (2X Sort Basic Materials) Long / Intermediate / Daily / Short

Thursday, July 11, 2013

Fed to remain easy even if Jobs hit 6.5%...

Ben said I want to be clear I'm easy no matter what. That is the all clear signal for the bulls now let's see what they can do. Today every class of asset was up from commodities to bonds to stocks. The only asset that was down was oil and for the life of me I can't believe it is over 100. In my opinion this Bernanke thing is getting off the chart ridiculous or the guy is God, ok maybe god. The only thing he is doing is inflating assets the economy still sucks. You would think that earnings have to take a hit fairly soon. The dollar index fell to $82.418, its lowest since June 25 and down around 2.8 percent from the three-year high of $84.753. The Fed had the room to punch the dollar and it did.
IBD went to confirmed uptrend today.

Mikey

DJI Close 15460.92 +169.26

DJI Trend Summary
Long Term UP/ Intermediate UP/ Daily down/Short Term up
Hourly up 6-27 14928
Daily uptrend 14978 on 7-5 5 trading days
Intermediate Uptrend: at 13412 on 1-2 ( 129 trading days)
Long Term Uptrend 11315 on 11-1-10 2 years + 8 months
IBD confirmed uptrend 7-11 15460
Current Trading range 14444 -15542
Step Down trading Range 14050 - 14444
Resistence: 15542
Support 15180
Support 14844
Support 14400

Average watch

50 Hour Ave: 15179 price above
20 Day Ave: 15049 Price above

50 Day Ave: 15116 Price above
200 Day Ave: 14069 Price above

20 Week Ave: 14847 Price above

50 Week Ave: 13949 Price above
200 Week Ave: 12101Price above
50 Month Ave: 11962 Price above

Indicators
NYSE A/D +2269 NASDAQ A/D +1081
NYSE A/D line 101251 NASDAQ A/D line +3791 NH
Put/Call .91 10 day .94 Put Prem/Call Prem .86 10 day 1.00
% Stocks above 50 day average 74
CNN Fear/Greed Index 59 (100 Greed to 0 Fear)
Mikey 3 day +155 OB 7 day +99 20 day +76 50 day +51

Mikey total OB/OS Oscillator Range (+550 to -550) +380
Bulls 43.8 (58.8 to 21.3) Bears 20.8 (54.4 to 15.6) Ratio 2.10
Mutual Fund Purch/Redemp: 1.13 (.66 to 1.46) High public buy
DJI PE ratio 16.4 DJI Price/Book 3.75 (1.27 to 4.13)
DJI Dividend Yield 2.41(2.38 to 4.45)
NYSE Vol (in Millions) 3376 NASDAQ Vol 1688
New Highs NYSE 375 NASDAQ 400

New Lows NYSE 15 NASDAQ 10

Closing Prices

US Stock
DJI 15460.92 +169.26 DJT 6472.32 +78.25 SPX 1675.02 +22.40

DJU 496.05 +8.03 NASDAQ 3578.30 +57.04

US Debt Markets

US Gov: 3 mo .038% 2 yr .339% 5 yr 1.39% 10 yr 2.57% 30 yr 3.62%

Mortgage Rates 30 year 4.52% 15 Yr 3.52%
Yield: Investment grade 3.40 High Yield 6.55
IEF(2-10 year) 101.93 +1.01 TLT (US 20 yr) 107.80 +1.24

Muni Bonds 105.01 +.95 Cal Muni (NCA) 9.28 +.13

LQD (Inv Grade Corp) 114.10 +1.33 High Yield 92.66 +1.16

Commodities

CRB Commodities Index 286.68 +.57

Gold 1279.90 +32.50 Silver 19.96 +.70
Copper 3.18 +.08 Platinum 1407.60 +39.50
Oil 104.91 -1.61 Gasoline 3.02 Nat Gas 3.61 -.06
Dollar Index 82.93