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Mikey's Short Term Trading Rules

1) Make up a list of stocks, commodities or ETF's to trade. This list should be names that have good earnings and high relative strength.
2) Monitor this list and throw out the weaker names
3) Buy only stocks or ETF's that are intermediate and daily up (green) and the market is Daily and intermediate term up (green)
4) Buy pullbacks on these stocks to the 20 and 50 day averages
Usually you get 4 to 6 20 day pullback buys and 2 or 3 50 day pullback buys in an intermediate term trend
5) More agressive traders can buy the 7 day average in the first 3 to 8 weeks of the uptrend.
6) Buy pullbacks not runups. A buy should not be easy or exciting but difficult and somewhat scary. DO NOT CHASE
7) Place stop at 5% below the buy price. Do not remove
8) Sell 3 to 5 days after the stock price takes out its most recent 2 week high with at least 15% gains
9) Uptrends that are 12 weeks or more may be ripe for a correction. The first 2 pullbacks to the 50 day are usually safe.
Intermediate term uptrends and downtrends generally last from 8 to 16 weeks with 12 weeks being the norm.
10) Shorting is a viable strategy in downtrends for experienced traders only. In general, reverse the above rules
11) Tweet Mikey @themarketshadow with questions or ideas

Friday, July 5, 2013

DJI closes above 50 day signaling uptrend???

Well, well, well the jobs numbers were good, wiping out all that bad news from last week. The market rallied to close over the 50 day average which is our buy signal.  The bond market is on a different trip it closed at 2 year lows and turned negative over the long term. this despite the Feds promise not to raise rates.  Gold sold off it its lows again and oil rallied to a new high.  Mortgage rates spiked to 4.64 on the 30 year and 3.68 on the 15 year. The NASDAQ has been outperforming the DJI for the past month as shown by the A/D line which made a new high today.

I have been writing about this move for the past week.  The close above the 50 day will send the bears back into the forest and clears the way for the next leg of the decline.  Stay tuned for the sell signal but until then we will give the upside some room. The downside signal will be 14844.

Mikey


DJI Close 152135.84 +147.28
    DJI Trend Summary
    Long Term UP/ Intermediate UP/ Daily down/Short Term NEUT
    Hourly up 6-27 14928
    Daily uptrend 14978 on 7-5 1 trading days
    Intermediate Uptrend: at 13412 on 1-2 ( 125 trading days)
    Long Term Uptrend 11315 on 11-1-10  2 years + 8 months
    IBD confirmed downtrend 6-20  14758
    Current Trading range   14444 -15542
    Step Down trading Range 14050 - 14444
    Resistence: 15542
    Resistance 15180 
    Resistance 14844 
    Support  14400     
    Average watch
    50 Hour Ave: 14978 price above
    20 Day Ave: 15008 Price above
    50 Day Ave: 15069  Price above
    200 Day Ave: 14034 Price above
    20 Week Ave: 14783 Price above
    50 Week Ave: 13905 Price above
    200 Week Ave: 12072 Price above
    50 Month Ave: 11959 Price above

    Indicators
    NYSE A/D +399 NASDAQ A/D +1153
    NYSE A/D line  96873 NASDAQ A/D line +1473
    Put/Call .86 10 day .94 Put Prem/Call Prem  1.03 10 day 1.13
    % Stocks above 50 day average  60
    CNN  Fear/Greed Index 40 fear (100 Greed to 0 Fear)
    Mikey 3 day -37  7 day +119  20 day +18  50 day +34
    Mikey total OB/OS Oscillator  Range (+550 to -550) +135
    Bulls 43.8  (58.8 to 21.3) Bears 20.8 (54.4 to 15.6)  Ratio 2.10
    Mutual Fund Purch/Redemp: 1.13 (.66 to 1.46) High public buy
    DJI PE ratio 16.1   DJI  Price/Book 3.67 (1.27 to 4.13)
    DJI Dividend Yield 2.46 (2.38 to 4.45)
    NYSE Vol (in Millions) 2580 NASDAQ Vol 1230
    New Highs NYSE 208 NASDAQ 85
    New Lows  NYSE 85 NASDAQ 29


    Closing Prices
    US Stock
    DJI 15135.84 +147.29 DJT 6289.96 +95.22 SPX 1631.89 +16.48
    DJU 476.94 -2.20 NASDAQ 3479.38 +35.71
    US Debt Markets
    US Gov: 3 mo .046% 2 yr .399% 5 yr 1.61% 10 yr 2.74% 30 yr  3.71%
    Mortgage Rates 30 year 4.64% 15 Yr 3.68%
    Yield:  Investment grade 3.35   High Yield 6.60
    IEF(2-10 year) 100.39 -1.85 TLT (US 20 yr) 106.20 -3.81
    Muni Bonds 103.42 -1.62 Cal Muni (NCA) 9.20 -.13
    LQD (Inv Grade Corp) 112.17 -1.44  High Yield 89.85 -.97
    Commodities 
    CRB Commodities Index 280.72 -1.07
    Gold 1212.70 -39.20 Silver 18.74 -.96
    Copper 3.06 -.11 Platinum 1326.40 -20.40
    Oil 103.22 +1.98 Gasoline 2.90 +.06 Nat Gas 3.62 -.07
    Dollar Index 84.69 +1.24

    US Dollar Long Term/ Intermediate Term / Daily Trend / Short term
     
    All Market Trends: 
     
    Commodities
    Gold: (GLD)    Long/ Intermediate   Daily / Short term
    Silver: (SLV)   Long  / Intermediate / Daily / Short term
    Copper:(JCC) Long / Intermediate / Daily  / Short term
    Oil: (USO)       Long / Intermediate / Daily/ Short term
    Gasoline (UGA) Long/ Intermediate / Daily/Short term
    Nat Gas:(UNG)Long Term/ Intermediate/ Daily/ Short term
    Commod (USCI) Long Term/ Intermediate / Daily / Short term
    Bond Markets
    US Bonds LT (TLT) Long Term/ Intermed/  Daily/ Short term
    US Corp BBB (LQD)  Long Term/ intermediate/Daily/ Short term 
    US Muni  (MUB)      Long Term  Intermed/ Daily/ Short Trend
    High Yield  (HYG)   Long Term/Intermed/ Daily/ Short term
    Utility stocks (XLU):Long Term/ Intermed/ Daily  / Short term
    Stocks
    US ($DJI)      Long Term/Interrmed Term/ Daily Trend/  Short term
    Europe(IEV) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    China (FXI)    Long Term/ intermed Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Brazil EWZ)  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    India  (PIN)   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Emerg Mkt(EEM) Long Term/ Interm Term/ Daily Trend/Short term
    Japan (EWJ) Long Term/ In termed Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term

    Stocks I like
    These are not recommendations as I am not an analyst or financial planner
    Buy Signal = Daily and Intermediate green, short term turns green 
    IF Long and Intermediate are green buy sell off  to 50 day average
    Buy Put 5% out of the money with less than 1 month to expiration
    or place stop 5% below purchase price
    Sell = price returns to pre selloff highs
      
    AAPL Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    AET Long Term/ Intermediate Term / Daily Trend/ Short term
    AGU Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    AMZN Long Term/ Intermediate Term / Daily Trend/ Short term
    APA  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend  Short term
    APC  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    ATHN Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    AUY Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    AXP Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    BOFI Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    BP  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    BWLD  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    CAT Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    CLNE Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term 
    COG Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    COP Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/Short term
    COST Long Term/ Intermediate Term/  Daily Trend Short term
    CRM Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    DAL  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/  Daily Trend Short term
    DDD Long Term/ Intermediate Term/  Daily Trend Short term
    DISCK Long Term/ Intermediate Term/  Daily Trend Short term
    ELLI Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    FB   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    FDX Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    GILD  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    GLW    Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    GMCR Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    GOOG Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    HAL Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    HD  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    HEI Long Term/ Intermediate Term/  Daily Trend Short term
    HFC Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    IT    Long Term/ Intermediate Term/  Daily Trend Short term
    KORS Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    KMX Long Term/ Intermediate Term/  Daily Trend Short term
    LCC  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    LNKD Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    LEN  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    MCD Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    MELI Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    NOV  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    ORB Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    P      Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    PAA  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    PG  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    QCOM Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    RAX  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    SBUX Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    SLB Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    TM   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    WAG  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    WFM Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    XONE Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Z  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term

    Short ETF's
          SH ( Short S & P)              Long / Intermediate / Daily / Short
          SJB (Short High Yield bonds)   Long / Intermediate / Daily/  Short
          TBT (2X Short 20+Year GOV) Long / Intermediate / Daily / Short
          VIXY (Short term VIX futures) Long /Intermediate / Daily/  Short
          FXP (2X Short China)                Long / Intermediate / Daily / Short
          SEF (Short Financial Index)      Long / Intermediate / Daily / Short
          DOG (Short DJI)                        Long / Intermediate / Daily / Short
          SCO   (2X Short Oil)                  Long / Intermediate / Daily / Short
          DUG  (2X Short Oil Stocks)       Long / Intermediate / Daily / Short
          SMN (2X Sort Basic Materials)  Long / Intermediate / Daily / Short
       

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