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Mikey's Short Term Trading Rules

1) Make up a list of stocks, commodities or ETF's to trade. This list should be names that have good earnings and high relative strength.
2) Monitor this list and throw out the weaker names
3) Buy only stocks or ETF's that are intermediate and daily up (green) and the market is Daily and intermediate term up (green)
4) Buy pullbacks on these stocks to the 20 and 50 day averages
Usually you get 4 to 6 20 day pullback buys and 2 or 3 50 day pullback buys in an intermediate term trend
5) More agressive traders can buy the 7 day average in the first 3 to 8 weeks of the uptrend.
6) Buy pullbacks not runups. A buy should not be easy or exciting but difficult and somewhat scary. DO NOT CHASE
7) Place stop at 5% below the buy price. Do not remove
8) Sell 3 to 5 days after the stock price takes out its most recent 2 week high with at least 15% gains
9) Uptrends that are 12 weeks or more may be ripe for a correction. The first 2 pullbacks to the 50 day are usually safe.
Intermediate term uptrends and downtrends generally last from 8 to 16 weeks with 12 weeks being the norm.
10) Shorting is a viable strategy in downtrends for experienced traders only. In general, reverse the above rules
11) Tweet Mikey @themarketshadow with questions or ideas

Friday, July 12, 2013

Gold looks like it is going to be in play

This week was Fed sell out week.  Everything and every price you pay is in some way being controlled  by the Central bank.  There is no auction market taking place anywhere.  Prices are being directly controlled.  The elected government can only watch and cheer from the sidelines.  Therefore, if we are going to play the market we have to guess what message the Fed wants to send next.  I am guessing that the Fed wants to send the inflation message next.  The charts on Gold and commodities are basing and I think Gold is going to be in play very soon.

Mikey


DJI Close 15543.38 -7.54
    DJI Trend Summary
    Long Term UP/ Intermediate UP/ Daily down/Short Term up
    Hourly up 6-27 14928
    Daily uptrend 14978 on 7-5 6 trading days
    Intermediate Uptrend: at 13412 on 1-2 ( 130 trading days)
    Long Term Uptrend 11315 on 11-1-10  2 years + 8 months
    IBD confirmed uptrend 7-11 15460
    Current Trading range   14444 -15542
    Step Down trading Range 14050 - 14444
    Resistence: 15542
    Support 15180 
    Support  14844 
    Support  14400     
    Average watch
    50 Hour Ave: 15239 price above
    20 Day Ave: 15063 Price above
    50 Day Ave: 15131 Price above
    200 Day Ave: 14079 Price above
    20 Week Ave: 14863 Price above
    50 Week Ave: 13956 Price above
    200 Week Ave: 12102 Price above
    50 Month Ave: 11968 Price above

    Indicators
    NYSE A/D +14 NASDAQ A/D +3582.94 +4.64
    NYSE A/D line 101266 NASDAQ A/D line +4045 NH
    Put/Call .86 10 day .94 Put Prem/Call Prem  .71 10 day .95
    % Stocks above 50 day average  74
    CNN  Fear/Greed Index 58 (100 Greed to 0 Fear)
    Mikey 3 day +97   7 day +118  20 day +104  50 day +41
    Mikey total OB/OS Oscillator  Range (+550 to -550) +360
    Bulls 43.8  (58.8 to 21.3) Bears 20.8 (54.4 to 15.6)  Ratio 2.10
    Mutual Fund Purch/Redemp: 1.13 (.66 to 1.46) High public buy
    DJI PE ratio 16.6   DJI  Price/Book 3.75 (1.27 to 4.13)
    DJI Dividend Yield 2.38(2.38 to 4.45)
    NYSE Vol (in Millions) 2965 NASDAQ Vol 1525
    New Highs NYSE 254 NASDAQ 311
    New Lows  NYSE 17 NASDAQ 10


    Closing Prices
    US Stock
    DJI 15543.38 -7.54 DJT 6472.32 +6450.73 -21.59 SPX 1675.50 +.48
    DJU 496.78 +.73 NASDAQ 3582.94 +4.64
    US Debt Markets
    US Gov: 3 mo .038% 2 yr .343% 5 yr 1.42% 10 yr 2.59% 30 yr  3.63%
    Mortgage Rates 30 year 4.48% 15 Yr 3.50%
    Yield:  Investment grade 3.30   High Yield 6.35
    IEF(2-10 year) 101.85 -.08 TLT (US 20 yr) 107.78 -.02
    Muni Bonds 105.49 +.48 Cal Muni (NCA) 9.17 -.09
    LQD (Inv Grade Corp) 113.90 -.28  High Yield 92.56 -.09
    Commodities 
    CRB Commodities Index 286.66 -.02
    Gold 1277.60 -2.30 Silver 19.79 -.16
    Copper 3.16 -.02 Platinum 1406.90 -.70
    Oil 105.95 +1.04 Gasoline 3.12 +.09 Nat Gas 3.64 +.03
    Dollar Index 83.16 +.25

    US Dollar Long Term/ Intermediate Term / Daily Trend / Short term
     
    All Market Trends: 
     
    Commodities
    Gold: (GLD)    Long/ Intermediate   Daily / Short term
    Silver: (SLV)   Long  / Intermediate / Daily / Short term
    Copper:(JCC) Long / Intermediate / Daily  / Short term
    Oil: (USO)       Long / Intermediate / Daily/ Short term
    Gasoline (UGA) Long/ Intermediate / Daily/Short term
    Nat Gas:(UNG)Long Term/ Intermediate/ Daily/ Short term
    Commod (USCI) Long Term/ Intermediate / Daily / Short term
    Bond Markets
    US Bonds LT (TLT) Long Term/ Intermed/  Daily/ Short term
    US Corp BBB (LQD)  Long Term/ intermediate/Daily/ Short term 
    US Muni  (MUB)      Long Term  Intermed/ Daily/ Short Trend
    High Yield  (HYG)   Long Term/Intermed/ Daily/ Short term
    Utility stocks (XLU):Long Term/ Intermed/ Daily  / Short term
    Stocks
    US ($DJI)      Long Term/Interrmed Term/ Daily Trend/  Short term
    Europe(IEV) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    China (FXI)    Long Term/ intermed Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Brazil EWZ)  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    India  (PIN)   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Emerg Mkt(EEM) Long Term/ Interm Term/ Daily Trend/Short term
    Japan (EWJ) Long Term/ In termed Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term

    Stocks I like
    These are not recommendations as I am not an analyst or financial planner
    Buy Signal = Daily and Intermediate green, short term turns green 
    IF Long and Intermediate are green buy sell off  to 50 day average
    Buy Put 5% out of the money with less than 1 month to expiration
    or place stop 5% below purchase price
    Sell = price returns to pre selloff highs
      
    AAPL Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    AET Long Term/ Intermediate Term / Daily Trend/ Short term
    AGU Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    AMZN Long Term/ Intermediate Term / Daily Trend/ Short term
    APA  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend  Short term
    APC  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    ATHN Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    ATW Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    AUY Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    AXP Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    BEAM  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    DIS  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    BOFI  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    BP  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    BWLD  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    CAT  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    CLNE Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term 
    COG Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    COP  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/Short term
    COST Long Term/ Intermediate Term/  Daily Trend Short term
    CRM Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    DAL  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/  Daily Trend Short term

    DDD   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/  Daily Trend Short term
    DISCK  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/  Daily Trend Short term
    ELLI  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    FB    Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    FDX  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    GILD  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    GLW    Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    GMCR  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    GOOG  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    GTLS  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    HAL  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    HD   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    HEI  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/  Daily Trend Short term
    HFC Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    IT    Long Term/ Intermediate Term/  Daily Trend Short term
    KORS Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    KMI  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    KMX   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/  Daily Trend Short term
    LCC    Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    LNKD Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    LEN  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    LNG  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    LOW  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    MCD Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term  
    MELI Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    NOV  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    OII  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    ORB  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    P      Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    PAA  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    PG   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    QCOM Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    RAX  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    SBUX Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    SLB Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    TM   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    WAG  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    WFM   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    XONE Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Z  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term

    Short ETF's
          SH ( Short S & P)              Long / Intermediate / Daily / Short
          SJB (Short High Yield bonds)   Long / Intermediate / Daily/  Short
          TBT (2X Short 20+Year GOV) Long / Intermediate / Daily / Short
          VIXY (Short term VIX futures) Long /Intermediate / Daily/  Short
          FXP (2X Short China)                Long / Intermediate / Daily / Short
          SEF (Short Financial Index)      Long / Intermediate / Daily / Short
          DOG (Short DJI)                        Long / Intermediate / Daily / Short
          SCO   (2X Short Oil)                  Long / Intermediate / Daily / Short
          DUG  (2X Short Oil Stocks)       Long / Intermediate / Daily / Short
          SMN (2X Sort Basic Materials)  Long / Intermediate / Daily / Short
       








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