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Mikey's Short Term Trading Rules

1) Make up a list of stocks, commodities or ETF's to trade. This list should be names that have good earnings and high relative strength.
2) Monitor this list and throw out the weaker names
3) Buy only stocks or ETF's that are intermediate and daily up (green) and the market is Daily and intermediate term up (green)
4) Buy pullbacks on these stocks to the 20 and 50 day averages
Usually you get 4 to 6 20 day pullback buys and 2 or 3 50 day pullback buys in an intermediate term trend
5) More agressive traders can buy the 7 day average in the first 3 to 8 weeks of the uptrend.
6) Buy pullbacks not runups. A buy should not be easy or exciting but difficult and somewhat scary. DO NOT CHASE
7) Place stop at 5% below the buy price. Do not remove
8) Sell 3 to 5 days after the stock price takes out its most recent 2 week high with at least 15% gains
9) Uptrends that are 12 weeks or more may be ripe for a correction. The first 2 pullbacks to the 50 day are usually safe.
Intermediate term uptrends and downtrends generally last from 8 to 16 weeks with 12 weeks being the norm.
10) Shorting is a viable strategy in downtrends for experienced traders only. In general, reverse the above rules
11) Tweet Mikey @themarketshadow with questions or ideas

Monday, June 24, 2013

Yogi the market is oversold

The market is oversold on this first leg down.  Mikey total OB/OS is at -531.  The 3 is at -203 the 7 day is -153, the 20 day is -155, and the 50 turned negative at -19.  The CNN fear/greed is a very low 11 the 10 day put/call is at 1.04 all oversold.

The bond market is also oversold short term.  I would expect some number or the Fed chairman say something and this thing rallies to just above the 50 day, now at 15022.  The sell signal of the 50 day average break has brought in the bears.  I think this is a mini trap for the bears and a 400 point rally will send them back in the woods.

Mikey


DJI Close 14659.56 -139.84
    DJI Trend Summary
    Long Term UP/ Intermediate UP/ Daily down/Short Term down
    Hourly down 6-19 15169
    Daily downtrend: 15037 on 6-20 3 trading days
    Intermediate Uptrend: at 13412 on 1-2 ( 117 trading days)
    Long Term Uptrend 11315 on 11-1-10  2 years + 7 months
     
    IBD confirmed downtrend 6-20  14758
    Current Trading range   14444 -15542
    Step Down trading Range 14050 - 14444
    Resistence: 15542
    Resistance 15180 
    Resistance 14844 
    Support  14400

    Average watch
    50 Hour Ave: 15024 price below
    20 Day Ave: 15120 Price below
    50 Day Ave: 15022 Price below
    200 Day Ave: 13970 Price above
    20 Week Ave: 14727 Price above
    50 Week Ave: 13860 Price above
    200 Week Ave: 12044 Price above
    50 Month Ave: 11836 Price above

    Indicators
    NYSE A/D -2281 NASDAQ A/D -1357
    NYSE A/D line  90830  NASDAQ A/D line -4408
    Put/Call 1.03 10 day 1.01 Put Prem/Call Prem  1.19 10 day .96
    % Stocks above 50 day average  37
    CNN  Fear/Greed Index 11 fear (100 Greed to 0 Fear)

    Mikey 3 day -203  7 day -153 20 day -155 50 day -19
    Mikey total OB/OS Oscillator  Range (+550 to -550) -531
    Bulls 46.8  (58.8 to 21.3) Bears 21.9 (54.4 to 15.6)  Ratio 2.14
    Mutual Fund Purch/Redemp: 1.17 (.66 to 1.46) High public buy
    DJI PE ratio 16.4  DJI  Price/Book 3.63 (1.27 to 4.13)
    DJI Dividend Yield 2.49 (2.38 to 4.45)
    NYSE Vol (in Millions) 4603 NASDAQ Vol 1972
    New Highs NYSE 21 NASDAQ 51
    New Lows  NYSE 600 NASDAQ 114
    Closing Prices
    US Stock
    DJI 14659.56 -139.84 DJT 5990.70 -119.94 SPX 1573.09 -19.34
    DJU 470.89 -.88 NASDAQ 3320.76 -36.41
    US Debt Markets
    US Gov: 3 mo .056% 2 yr .384% 5 yr 1.42% 10 yr 2.55% 30 yr  3.56%
    Mortgage Rates 30 year 4.51 % 15 Yr 3.57%
    Yield:  Investment grade 3.36   High Yield 6.62
    IEF(2-10 year) 101.78 -.25 TLT (US 20 yr) 109.05 +.65
    Muni Bonds 101.35 -.94 Cal Muni (NCA) 9.05 -.16
    LQD (Inv Grade Corp) 111.48 -.73 High Yield 89.04 -1.11
    Commodities 
    CRB Commodities Index 277.48 -.60
    Gold 1277.10 -14.40  Silver 19.49 -.47
    Copper 3.02 -.07 Platinum 1329.10 -40.40
    Oil 95.18 +1.49 Gasoline 2.73 -.03 Nat Gas 3.74 -.03
    US Dollar Long Term/ Intermediate Term / Daily Trend / Short term
     
    All Market Trends: 
     
    Commodities
    Gold: (GLD)    Long/ Intermediate   Daily / Short term
    Silver: (SLV)   Long  / Intermediate / Daily / Short term
    Copper:(JCC) Long / Intermediate / Daily  / Short term
    Oil: (USO)       Long / Intermediate / Daily/ Short term
    Gasoline (UGA) Long/ Intermediate / Daily/Short term
    Nat Gas:(UNG)Long Term/ Intermediate/ Daily/ Short term
    Commod (USCI) Long Term/ Intermediate / Daily / Short term
    Bond Markets
    US Bonds LT (TLT) Long Term/ Intermed/  Daily/ Short term
    US Corp BBB (LQD)  Long Term/ intermediate/Daily/ Short term 
    US Muni  (MUB)      Long Term  Intermed/ Daily/ Short Trend
    High Yield  (HYG)   Long Term/Intermed/ Daily/ Short term
    Utility stocks (XLU):Long Term/ Intermed/ Daily  / Short term
    Stocks
    US ($DJI)      Long Term/Interrmed Term/ Daily Trend/  Short term
    Europe(IEV) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    China (FXI)    Long Term/ intermed Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Brazil EWZ)  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    India  (PIN)   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Emerg Mkt(EEM) Long Term/ Interm Term/ Daily Trend/Short term
    Japan (EWJ) Long Term/ In termed Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term

    Stocks I like
    These are not recommendations as I am not an analyst or financial planner
    Buy Signal = Daily and Intermediate green, short term turns green 
    IF Long and Intermediate are green buy sell off  to 50 day average
    Buy Put 5% out of the money with less than 1 month to expiration
    or place stop 5% below purchase price
    Sell = price returns to pre selloff highs
      
    AAPL Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    AET Long Term/ Intermediate Term / Daily Trend/ Short term
    AGU Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term 
    APA  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend  Short term
    APC  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    ATHN Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    AUY Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    AXP Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    BOFI Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    BP  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    BWLD  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    CAT Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    CLNE Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term 
    COG Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    COP Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/Short term
    COST Long Term/ Intermediate Term/  Daily Trend Short term
    CRM Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    DAL  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/  Daily Trend Short term
    DDD Long Term/ Intermediate Term/  Daily Trend Short term
    DISCK Long Term/ Intermediate Term/  Daily Trend Short term
    ELLI Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    FB   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    FDX Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    GILD  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    GLW    Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    GMCR Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    GOOG Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    HAL Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    HD  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    HEI Long Term/ Intermediate Term/  Daily Trend Short term
    HFC Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    IT    Long Term/ Intermediate Term/  Daily Trend Short term
    KORS Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    KMX Long Term/ Intermediate Term/  Daily Trend Short term
    LCC  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    LNKD Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    LEN  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    MCD Long Term/ Intermediate Term// Daily Trend  Short term
    MELI Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    NOV  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    ORB Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    P      Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    PAA  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    PG  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
     QCOM Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    RAX  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    SLB Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    WAG  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    WFM Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    XONE Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Z  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term

    Short ETF's
          SH ( Short S & P)              Long / Intermediate / Daily / Short
          SJB (Short High Yield bonds)   Long / Intermediate / Daily/  Short
          VIXY (Short term VIX futures) Long /Intermediate / Daily/  Short
          YXI (Short China)                      Long / Intermediate / Daily / Short
          SEF (Short Financial Index)      Long / Intermediate / Daily / Short
          DOG (Short DJI)                        Long / Intermediate / Daily / Short
       

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