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Mikey's Short Term Trading Rules

1) Make up a list of stocks, commodities or ETF's to trade. This list should be names that have good earnings and high relative strength.
2) Monitor this list and throw out the weaker names
3) Buy only stocks or ETF's that are intermediate and daily up (green) and the market is Daily and intermediate term up (green)
4) Buy pullbacks on these stocks to the 20 and 50 day averages
Usually you get 4 to 6 20 day pullback buys and 2 or 3 50 day pullback buys in an intermediate term trend
5) More agressive traders can buy the 7 day average in the first 3 to 8 weeks of the uptrend.
6) Buy pullbacks not runups. A buy should not be easy or exciting but difficult and somewhat scary. DO NOT CHASE
7) Place stop at 5% below the buy price. Do not remove
8) Sell 3 to 5 days after the stock price takes out its most recent 2 week high with at least 15% gains
9) Uptrends that are 12 weeks or more may be ripe for a correction. The first 2 pullbacks to the 50 day are usually safe.
Intermediate term uptrends and downtrends generally last from 8 to 16 weeks with 12 weeks being the norm.
10) Shorting is a viable strategy in downtrends for experienced traders only. In general, reverse the above rules
11) Tweet Mikey @themarketshadow with questions or ideas

Tuesday, October 2, 2012

Intermediate trend negative for Aussie

The Aussie has been a surrogate for the China economy.  The weakness in this currency indicates weakness in that part of the world and a willingness by the Aussie government to devalue.


Mikey 

Trends:
Daily Uptrend  12822 on 7-20
Long Term UP/ Intermediate Term Up/ Daily Trend Up  /Short Term neutral
DJI Close 13482.36 -32.75
Current trading range: 13423- 14200 
Step up trading range  14200 -new high
Step down support range 12980-13423
Key Indicators

Averages
50 Hour Ave: 13495 Price below
20 Day Ave: 13445 Price above
50 Day Ave: 13227 Price above
20 Week Ave: 13004 Price above
50 Week Ave: 12752 Price above
50 Month Ave 10904 Price above

Overbought/Oversold readings (Mikey reading) +100  to -100
5 day +30 N 10 day -9 N 20 day +71 N  50 day +111 OB
MACD Readings
MACD Crosses: Negative cross = consolidation/correction Positive cross=uptrend
Short term (50 hour) ,Neut  (12 Hrs) signal 10-1
MACD Hourly -7.09
Daily trend (50 day) Up 55 days 7-17 12805
MACD Daily +93.83 Negative cross 9-26
Intermediate trend (50 week) Up (16 weeks).signal 6-1 12118
MACD Weekly (+235.90) Positive cross  7-30
Long term trend (50 month) Up (22 months)...signal 12/1/10 11577
MACD Monthly (+595.56) Positive Cross 9-1-09

IBD:Market in Confirmed Uptrend 7-26 12887

Volume Readings
Volume (Millions) NYSE 3231 NASDAQ 1576
Advance/Decline NYSE +204 NASDAQ +58
Mikey NYSE A/D line +64248 Mikey NASDAQ A/D line -12176
Trader Psychology
Put/Call day .74  10 day .73  Put Prem/Call Prem  .77 10 day .69
Bull/Bear Ratio 2.08 Bulls 51%, Bears 24.5% Mutial Funds Buy/Redeem ratio 1.17
VIX 15.71 VXZ 33.60 Trin  1.15 10 day ave 1.14 Mikey Fear  97 (80 Low 20 High)
New Highs NYSE 164 NASDAQ 97 New Lows NYSE 23 NASDAQ 27
% Stocks above 200 day ave 68% (above 50+1.84% uptrend)

Closing Prices

US Stocks
DJIA 13482.36 -32.75 S/P 500 1445.75 +1.26 NASDAQ 3120.04 +6.51
DJT 4908.44 +8.71 DJU 475.95 +1.84
US Debt Markets
US Gov rates: 6 mo .1319% 2 yr .-.052.85% 5/1 ARM 2.95
IEF (US 7-10 yr) 108.51 TLT (20 yr) 124.19 -.23 High Yield 91.89 +.23
MUB(NatMuni) 111.74 +.07 Cal Muni(NCA)10.63 -.03
BND Total Bnd Ind 85.04 --
Commodities
CRB Commodities Index 311.26 +1.96
Gold  1772.70 -9.80 Silver 34.66 -.29 Copper 3.79 +.01 Platinum 1687.20 +1.40
Oil 91.89 -.59 RBOB 2.86 -.05 Nat Gas 3.52 +.04

US Dollar Index and World Currencies
Euro 1.2836 +.0032 Pound 1.5971 +.0004  Swiss Franc 1.0514 +.0021
Yen .012557 -.000030 Aussie 1.0266 -.0104 Canadian Dollar 1.0106 -.0011
Dollar Index 79.83 -.07

All Market Trends:

Commodities
Gold:    Long Term/ Intermediate Term  Daily Trend// Short term
Silver: Long Term / Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
Copper:Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
Oil:       Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
Gasoline Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/  Short term
Nat Gas:Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
CRB        Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
Bond Markets
US Bonds LT Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ / Short term
Intl  Treas       Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend /Short term
Intl Corp          Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ / Short term
US Muni        Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend   Short Trend/ /
High Yield     Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ / Short term
Currencies
Aussie DollarLong Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ / Short term
Brit PD         Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term Euro             Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend Short term
Yen               Long Term/ Intermediate Term/Daily Trend/  Short term
Swiss            Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
Can Dollar Long Term/ Intermediate Term Daily Trend/ Short term
US Dollar   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
Stocks
US      Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/  Short term
Europe Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
Germany Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
China     Long Term/ Intermediate Term Daily Trend/ / Short term
Brazil    Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
India   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
Emerg Mkts Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/Short term
Japan Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
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