Posting Times

Posts will be between 8:30 PM to 10:00 PM PST
Mikey's Short Term Trading Rules

1) Make up a list of stocks, commodities or ETF's to trade. This list should be names that have good earnings and high relative strength.
2) Monitor this list and throw out the weaker names
3) Buy only stocks or ETF's that are intermediate and daily up (green) and the market is Daily and intermediate term up (green)
4) Buy pullbacks on these stocks to the 20 and 50 day averages
Usually you get 4 to 6 20 day pullback buys and 2 or 3 50 day pullback buys in an intermediate term trend
5) More agressive traders can buy the 7 day average in the first 3 to 8 weeks of the uptrend.
6) Buy pullbacks not runups. A buy should not be easy or exciting but difficult and somewhat scary. DO NOT CHASE
7) Place stop at 5% below the buy price. Do not remove
8) Sell 3 to 5 days after the stock price takes out its most recent 2 week high with at least 15% gains
9) Uptrends that are 12 weeks or more may be ripe for a correction. The first 2 pullbacks to the 50 day are usually safe.
Intermediate term uptrends and downtrends generally last from 8 to 16 weeks with 12 weeks being the norm.
10) Shorting is a viable strategy in downtrends for experienced traders only. In general, reverse the above rules
11) Tweet Mikey @themarketshadow with questions or ideas

Thursday, October 4, 2012

QE 3 is a sham

QE 3 is a sham, the purpose of QE 3 is to provide  a cover story while the Fed allows interest rates to rise.  Keep your eyes on the LT US bond trends.  An easy money policy now will spike interest rates.  QE 3 creates the idea that the Fed is going to keep rates low for two years.  The rates can now be moved higher and bond prices lower without resistance. Bond holders are going to get burned.

Put ran .46 today Stocks are 150 points from their Sept 14 highs, expect a new high.  Jobs news is tomorrow.  Bad news is good news at this point as it will empower the Fed to ease more.

Mikey 

Trends:
Daily Uptrend  12822 on 7-20
Long Term UP/ Intermediate Term Up/ Daily Trend Up  /Short Term up
DJI Close 13575.36 +80.75
Current trading range: 13423- 14200 
Step up trading range  14200 -new high
Step down support range 12980-13423
Key Indicators

Averages
50 Hour Ave: 13487 Price above
20 Day Ave: 13482 Price above
50 Day Ave: 13263 Price above
20 Week Ave: 13263 Price above
50 Week Ave: 12754 Price above
50 Month Ave 10904 Price above

Overbought/Oversold readings (Mikey reading) +100  to -100
3 day +64 N 7 day 73 N 20 day +68 N  50 day +137 OB
MACD Readings
MACD Crosses: Negative cross = consolidation/correction Positive cross=uptrend
Short term (50 hour) ,Up  (7 Hrs) signal 10-4
MACD Hourly +24.18
Daily trend (50 day) Up 57 days 7-17 12805
MACD Daily +91.04 Negative cross 9-26
Intermediate trend (50 week) Up (16 weeks).signal 6-1 12118
MACD Weekly (+243.48) Positive cross  7-30
Long term trend (50 month) Up (22 months)...signal 12/1/10 11577
MACD Monthly (+595.56) Positive Cross 9-1-09

IBD:Market in Confirmed Uptrend 7-26 12887

Volume Readings
Volume (Millions) NYSE 3555 NASDAQ 1540
Advance/Decline NYSE +1384 NASDAQ +855
Mikey NYSE A/D line +65634 Mikey NASDAQ A/D line -11506
Trader Psychology
Put/Call day .46  10 day .78  Put Prem/Call Prem  .78 10 day .75
Bull/Bear Ratio 1.83 Bulls 46.8%, Bears 25.5% Mutial Funds Buy/Redeem ratio 1.17
VIX 14.55 VXZ 32.62 Trin  .73 10 day ave 1.05 Mikey Fear  102 (80 Low 20 High)
New Highs NYSE 230 NASDAQ 128 New Lows NYSE 12 NASDAQ 40
% Stocks above 200 day ave 69% (above 50+1.84% uptrend)

Closing Prices

US Stocks
DJIA 13575.36 +80.75 S/P 500 1461.40 +10.41 NASDAQ 3149.46 +14.23
DJT 5012.71 +46.61 DJU 481.48 +2.66
US Debt Markets
US Gov rates: 6 mo .1355% 2 yr .2461% 5 yr .6314% 10 yr 1.67% 30 yr 2.86
IEF (US 7-10 yr) 108.12 -.44 TLT (20 yr) 122.85 -1.44 High Yield 92.51 +.39
MUB(NatMuni) 111.88 -.01 Cal Muni(NCA)10.64 -.06
BND Total Bnd Ind 84.94 -.07
Commodities
CRB Commodities Index 310.45 +3.87
Gold  1794.10 +21.40 Silver 35.11 +.45 Copper 3.79 +.01 Platinum 1725.10 +31.00
Oil 91.71 +3.57 RBOB 2.94 Nat Gas 3.40 +.01

US Dollar Index and World Currencies
Euro 1.2932 +.0112  Pound 1.6025 +.0119 Swiss Franc 1.0562 +.0094
Yen ..012512 +.000009Aussie 1.0251 +.0043 Canadian Dollar 1.0142 +.0077
Dollar Index 79.43 -.63

All Market Trends:

Commodities
Gold:    Long Term/ Intermediate Term  Daily Trend// Short term
Silver: Long Term / Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
Copper:Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
Oil:       Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
Gasoline Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/  Short term
Nat Gas:Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
CRB        Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
Bond Markets
US Bonds LT Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ / Short term
Intl  Treas       Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend /Short term
Intl Corp          Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ / Short term
US Muni        Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend   Short Trend/ /
High Yield     Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ / Short term
Currencies
Aussie DollarLong Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ / Short term
Brit PD         Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term Euro             Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend Short term
Yen               Long Term/ Intermediate Term/Daily Trend/  Short term
Swiss            Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
Can Dollar Long Term/ Intermediate Term Daily Trend/ Short term
US Dollar   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
Stocks
US      Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/  Short term
Europe Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
Germany Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
China     Long Term/ Intermediate Term Daily Trend/ / Short term
Brazil    Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
India   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
Emerg Mkts Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/Short term
Japan Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
Posted by at

No comments:

Post a Comment

Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom)