Fed: We're going to buy bonds

The Fed says they are going to add to long bonds and sell short term bonds. The 30 year rates closed at 2.97% today and the 10 year closed at 1.84%. That means that the US government refinances big chunks of debt at below 3% for 30 years???

How about those crazy guys. What masterful job of manipulation.  They got the whole world to sell US bonds and US dollars and buy foreign bonds in foreign currencies.  Whoops, the world is on the wrong side of the trade and was sucker punched like Mayweather punched Ortiz on the break.  By the way sports fans and sports fannies, I don't have to tell you that the whole world is also LONG GOLD. I wonder what is going to happen the Gold??? 

The asset markets ( you know the risk traders) ,sorry Bob Pasini,  are getting smoked. Commodities are breaking down one by one and resuming their decline. The dollar is threatening an intermediate uptrend and formerly strong currencies like the Aussie and the Swiss are falling off a cliff.  So much for the  "you can't be in dollars" play.

I mentioned some time ago that the best return is zero interest and in dollars. That trade is clearly outperforming the risk trade and the risk traders still have not figured it out. They will when Gold and Silver joins the party. Silver is poised on the edge of a cliff now and the crowd is yelling jump,jump.  

IBD went to uptrend under pressure today...It's about time!!!!Mikey





Closing Prices

US Stock Indexes
DJIA 11124.84 -283.82  S/P 500 1166.76 -35.33
NYSE Comp 6981.33 -236.19  NASDAQ 2538.19 52.05
S/P Midcap 814.27 -28.95  Russell 664.58 -25.37
DJT 4281.16 -238.06 DJU 435.74 -7.77
US bonds and interest rates
US Gov rates: 6 mo .0251%  2 yr .1937% 10 yr 1.84 30 yr 2.97
IEF (US10 yr) 105.37 +.39  TLT (USLT) 118.45 +3.59
MUB (NatlMuni) 106.62 +.28 CalMuni (NCA)9.03 +.08
BND (Total Bond Mkt)83.94 +.30
Commodities
Commodities Indexes (DBC)28.01 -.43 (USCI ) 62.85 -.42
Gold 1808.10 -1.00 Silver 40.46 +.33 Copper 3.77 +.04
Platinum 1788.20 +6.30 Nickel (JJN)29.57 -1.34
Oil 85.92 -1.00   RBOB 2.66 -.03 Nat Gas3.73 -.06
Grains (JJG)49.04 -.35 Livestock (COW)29.91 +.12
Cotton (BAL)63.75 -.99 Agg complex(JJA)58.65 -.74
US Dollar Index and World Currencies
Euro 1.3543 -.0076 Pound 1.5378 -.0235 Swiss Franc 1.1003 -.0118
Yen 1.2857 -.0048 Aussie 1.0065 -.0204
Dollar Index 77.85 +.35
World Debt markets
BWX(Intl Treas)60.76 -.32 PCY(EmerMkt) 27.26 -.14
IBND(Intl Corp) 32.38

All Markets Current Trends

World debt markets

US Bonds: 7-29 current trend up

US Natl Muni Markets:: 7-13 current trend up

Intl Treas Bonds 9-9 current trend down
Intl Corp Bonds 9-2  current trend down
Emerging Markets Debt: 9-21 current trend down
US High Yield 8-2 current trend down

US Preferred Stocks 6-7 current trend down

Commodities

Commodity index (Broad based) 9-12 current trend down
Gold: .7-11 current trend up correcting
Silver: 9-19 current trend neutral (hanging by a thread)
Copper 8-8 current trend down

Platinum 9-19 current trend down
Palladium 9-7  current trend down

Nickel 8-8 current trend down

Grain complex 9-19 current trend down   
Sugar 9-19 current trend down
Cotton 9-19 current trend neutral

Livestock 8-22 current trend down
Coffee 9-21 current trend down

Lumber 9-19 current trend neutral
Agg complex 9-16 current trend down

Oil 7-29 current trend down
Gasoline 9-19 current trend down
Natural Gas 7-28 current trend down

World Stock markets

US Stocks: 7-27 current trend down
Europe 7-1 current trend down

China: 6-3 current trend down

Brazil 7-1 current trend down

Japan 8-4 current trend down

India 8-2 current trend down

Russia 8-4 current trend down\
Emerging Markets: 8-2 current trend downl

Total world markets 8-2 current trend down  

Currencies markets

US Dollar Index 9-6 current trend up
Aussie Dollar 9-6 current trend down
Euro 9-2 current trend down
Brit Pd  9-2 current trend down
Swiss Franc: 9-2 current trend down
Jap Yen 7-12 current trend up weakening

Canadian Dollar 8-8 current trend down
Mexican Peso 8-3 current trend down
Brazilian Real 8-9 current trend down
Indian Rupe 8-9 current trend down

Trend changes:

World Stocks: All markets remain in a downtrend
Currencies: 
Commodities: Coffee to down
World Debt : Emerging markets to down,

Intermediate Term Trends
Oil: Down
Gold: Up correcting
Silver: Neutral
Commodities: Down
US Bonds: Up extended
World Bonds: Down
Emerging Debt: Down
Emerging Markets: Down extended
Dollar: Neutral improving
World Stocks: Down extended
US Stocks Down


US Stock Market Trends

Mikey Short term down  7-28 12240

Mikey Intermediate Trend: down  8-4-11 11779
Mikey Long term Neutral 8-4-11 11779
NYSE 7-21 Current trend down  

NASDAQ 7-28 Current trend down
Transports: 7-27 down  

Russell 2000: 7-27 down   

IBD : 9-21 11124 uptrend under pressure

US markets short term technical trading indicators:

Mikey10 Meter -63 Mikey5 Meter -74 (-80 OB, 0 Neutral,  80 OB)

VIX (OB 10 - OS 40) 37.32 ,VXZ 67.71 Mikey Int OB/OS index (80 OB 20 OS) 11
Put/Call Ratio(.6 OB 1.2 OS) 1.09  10 day average .98
Ratio Put Premiums to Call Premium (.34 to 2.5) 1.01  10 day ave .97
Mutual Fund Purchase/Redemptions ( 1.5 to .66) 1.08
Williams %R 12 day -58.69  Weekly - 75.79
Bulls 37.6   Bears 39.8   Bull/Bear ratio .94
Daily DJIA MACD  -69.27 Rising/ Positive cross 8-25
Weekly MACD -227.06  Falling /Negative cross 5-16

NYSE New Highs 20 (12/7-10 429) New Lows (8-8-11 1345 )289
NASDAQ New Highs 10 (12-7-10, 352 ) New Lows 277 ( 8-8-11, 712 )
Advance/Declines

Daily NYSE Advance-Decline  -792 Nasdaq Advance-Decline -1121
Daily Mikey A/D line NYSE (7-7 37567) (8-8 19199) 24637    
Daily Mikey A/D line NASDAQ (2-18 10095) (8-22-10-10443) -10092
5 day AD NYSE- +16  NASDAQ +2103 NYSE..(OB +4000 OS -4000)
10 day AD NYSE +12 (6000 OB -6000 OS)
% above 200 day ave  20%

below 50% indicates intermediate trend down

Days to option expiration 24

DJI Moving Averages

5 day 11375  Falling / Price below

20 day 11330  Falling Price below
50 day 11610  Falling/Price below

90 day 11911  Falling/Price below
200 day 12000 Flat Price below

20 week 11890 Falling /Price below
50 week11857 Flat/ Price below
90 week 11240  Rising/Price/above
200 week 10676  Rising/ Price above

Daily comments for last 30 days:

8-22 QE3 Ben talks tomorrow. meanwhile market working off oversold condition. Gold rumbles past 1900 margin increase anyone?? Dollar quietly up

8-23 Going into the Fed statement tomorrow the markets have anticipated the Fed to prop up assets and keep this thing from rolling over. Forget the idea that the economy is going to fall into recession. The idea is the same as it was in 2009 and 2010 that the Fed is going to catch it here and print. That is what today's 322 up day was saying. IBD went to market in confirmed uptrend today. Mikey 10 has run positive for the last 2 days the trend has a tendence to follow the 10 up and down. I think it is too early to call here with only 2 days posiitve.
8-24 Gold was 97.50 lower today closing at 1763.80. If this is the same move that I have seen by most parabolic breaks it should see the 90 day average quickly. That average is just happens to be at the July 11 breakout at 1580 or GLD (154).
8-25 Warren Buffett buys 50 billion B of A preferred in private placement. Hey it was his idea they really did not need the money. Who could not use a spare 50 billion.
8-26 No QE3 but don't tell that to the market because it acted like it today
8-29 Greek banks and US economy OK today B of A sells 6 billion holding in China.But I am sure that they don't need the money.
8-30 Pimpco's (SIC) Bill Gross is now buying US bonds. I guess he is buying them from the Fed and the banks who I am sure are big sellers now. Bonds are starting to look as scary to me as Gold. Interest rates that pay anything are only available in stocks and corporate bonds. Believe me they are taking advantage of these low rates and the public is buying what they are selling. Any investor that invests a these current rates will lose half of their principle in the coming years.  This is going to be the next big debacle that the public faces it has been a long time since the public face interest rte risk but they are now. The Fed says that it will not raise rates for the next two years. That is hard for me to believe.
8-31 Bonds are weakening as commodities and the market challenge their downtrends. If the Fed is doing nothing then the bond vigilante's are going to come back. They raise rates as commodities and assets rise. The dollar is the beneficiary. This is the exact opposite of easing which is what the Fed has been doing. The economic news is turn more positive. This would support the vigilantes.
9-1 The dollar ran up to the 50 day average today and pulled back. The number on the UUP is 21.22 That is the number to watch. The jobs report comes in tomorrow will it show strength???
9-2 The market is falling and the long bonds are rising but the dollar is turning up and is at a 3 week high. This is different than the QE's that the Fed ran. Are they cutting asset prices free to trade on their own merits. Watch to see if this action continues. It would imply that the world economy is weaker than the US.  OMG
9-6 Dollar breaks downtrend line trend turns up Put/calls 1.16 highest since 8-8
9-7 Gold breaks $55 it appears to me that this is the top Market rallies 275 traps puts and shorts
9-8 Power outage did not post
9-9 Dollar powers to a 5 month high commodities look wobbly, 10 year note at 1.92 30 year at 3.24
market dives 300 points risk traders are taking it on the chin
9-12(OpXpWk) Keep in mind this is options expiration week and going into this week there are alot of put holders. I doubt that they will be winners and a market rally to possibly the top of the trading range of 11600 would not surprise me.
9-13 It looks to me like we are in a trading range and we are near the bottom of that range.  That range is 10700 to 11700 which is the 200 week on the low side and the 200 day on the upside.
9-14 Talk is that the Fed will be buying long end and selling short end. That is I believe a plant by the Fed Look for long rates to stall in here I think the rally in these is topping.
9-15 The shorts are losing their grip. Put/call ratio ran a low .49 today indicating no interest in short this rally. I still think wee take out the 11700 high which is the 200 day average. That would give the bulls bragging rights with a new high and a break above the 200 day average which is a buy signal to trades
9-16 Puts vaporize at expiration. Market closes near top of range.
9-19 Recent $ strength eating away at commodities markets
9-20 The DJI was up 7.65 but most indexes and indicators were down today. Their story is still negative and I think they are pressuring law makers to "do the right thing. this reminds me of 2008 before the Congress pasted the 800 billion bailout. If they balk then the market will teach them that they must comply with the powers that be.
9-21 I mentioned some time ago that the best return is zero interest and in dollars. That trade is clearly outperforming the risk trade and the risk traders still have not figured it out. They will when Gold and Silver joins the party. Silver is poised on the edge of a cliff now and the crowd is yelling jump,jump. IBD went to uptrend under pressure today. I think their uptrend call was ....errrr a reach.