Bailout part Deux

The DJI was up 7.65 but most indexes and indicators were down today. Their story is still negative and I think they are starting to pressure law makers to "do the right thing".  This reminds me of 2008 before the Congress passed the 800 billion bailout. The Congress was hesitant to bailout the banks but an 1000 point sell off paved the way for passage of the bill.

Then it was Bush and the Republicans and now it is Obama and the Democrats but it smells like the same thing to me it just has a new dress on to make it look different.   If they balk now then the market will create the proper environment to pass the bill and comply with the powers that be. The public will be paniced by the market action and accept the legislation that Congress will be "forced" to pass.

The bailout bill (TARP) was passed and then for the next 5 months things got worse allowing the Fed to execute QE1. Today the political climate is not right for QE 3 but if thing get much worse it will be. The longer they wait the worst things will get. Next year is an election year so we will see how far they will take it.  The last bailout was for the banks this one is for the US economy at least they are coming around and doing soming positive for the "little guy". So Oui Oui for bailout part Deux, but no no for the stock market.

Mikey

Closing Prices

US Stock Indexes
DJIA 11408.66 +7.65 S/P 500 1202.09 -2.00
NYSE Comp 7217.52 -17.11  NASDAQ 2590.24 -22.59
S/P Midcap 843.22 -11.18 Russell 689.95 -12.28
DJT 4519.22 -67.23   DJU 443.51 +5.93
US bonds and interest rates
US Gov rates: 6 mo .0226%  2 yr .1573% 10 yr 1.94  30 yr 3.20
IEF (US10 yr) 104.90 +.06 TLT (USLT) 114.75 +.37  
MUB (NatlMuni) 106.20 -.03   CalMuni (NCA)8.95 +.06
BND (Total Bond Mkt)83.64 uc
Commodities
Commodities Indexes (DBC)28.45 -.04 (USCI ) 63.41 +.24
Gold 1809.10 +30.10  Silver 40.13 +.97 Copper 3.73 -.05
Platinum 1781.90 +9.90 .Nickel (JJN) 30.80 -.11
Oil 86.92 +1.22  RBOB 2.69 uc Nat Gas 3.79 -.03
Grains (JJG)49.58 -.06 Livestock (COW)29.82 +.30
Cotton (BAL)65.37 +.17 Agg complex(JJA)59.54 -.02
US Dollar Index and World Currencies
Euro 1.3620 -.0018 Pound 1.5611 +.0030 Swiss Franc 1.1121 -.0095
Yen 1.2905 +.0022 Aussie 1.0269 +.0025
Dollar Index 77.53 -.11
World Debt markets
BWX(Intl Treas)61.45 +.25 PCY(EmerMkt) 27.34 -.14
IBND(Intl Corp) 34.39 +1.31
All Markets Current Trends

World debt markets

US Bonds: 7-29 current trend up

US Natl Muni Markets:: 7-13 current trend up

Intl Treas Bonds 9-9 current trend down
Intl Corp Bonds 9-2  current trend down
Emerging Markets Debt: 9-14 current trend neutral
US High Yield 8-2 current trend down

US Preferred Stocks 6-7 current trend down

Commodities

Commodity index (Broad based) 9-12 current trend down
Gold: .7-11 current trend up correcting
Silver: 9-19 current trend neutral
Copper 8-8 current trend down

Platinum 9-19 current trend down
Palladium 9-7  current trend down

Nickel 8-8 current trend down

Grain complex 9-19 current trend down   
Sugar 9-19 current trend down
Cotton 9-19 current trend neutral

Livestock 8-22 current trend down
Coffee 9-19 current trend neutral

Lumber 9-19 current trend neutral
Agg complex 9-16 current trend down

Oil 7-29 current trend down
Gasoline 9-19 current trend down
Natural Gas 7-28 current trend down

World Stock markets

US Stocks: 7-27 current trend down
Europe 7-1 current trend down

China: 6-3 current trend down

Brazil 7-1 current trend down

Japan 8-4 current trend down

India 8-2 current trend down

Russia 8-4 current trend down\
Emerging Markets: 8-2 current trend downl

Total world markets 8-2 current trend down  

Currencies markets

US Dollar Index 9-6 current trend up
Aussie Dollar 9-6 current trend down
Euro 9-2 current trend down
Brit Pd  9-2 current trend down
Swiss Franc: 9-2 current trend down
Jap Yen 7-12 current trend up weakening

Canadian Dollar 8-8 current trend down
Mexican Peso 8-3 current trend down
Brazilian Real 8-9 current trend down
Indian Rupe 8-9 current trend down

Trend changes:

World Stocks: All markets remain in a downtrend
Currencies: 
Commodities:
World Debt :

Intermediate Term Trends

Oil: Down
Gold: Up correcting
Silver: Neutral
Commodities: Down
US Bonds: Up extended
World Bonds: Up correcting
Emerging Debt: Up correcting
Emerging Markets: Down extended
Dollar: Neutral improving
World Stocks: Down extended
US Stocks Down improving

US Stock Market Trends

Mikey Short term down  7-28 12240

Mikey Intermediate Trend: down  8-4-11 11779
Mikey Long term Neutral 8-4-11 11779
NYSE 7-21 Current trend down  

NASDAQ 7-28 Current trend down
Transports: 7-27 down  

Russell 2000: 7-27 down   

IBD : 8-24 11176 confirmed uptrend

US markets short term technical trading indicators:

Mikey10 Meter+12  Mikey5 Meter +16 (-80 OB, 0 Neutral,  80 OB)

VIX (OB 10 - OS 40) 19.47,VXZ 62.40 Mikey Int OB/OS index (80 OB 20 OS) 29
Put/Call Ratio(.6 OB 1.2 OS) .84 10 day average 1.00
Ratio Put Premiums to Call Premium (.34 to 2.5) .95 10 day ave .97
Mutual Fund Purchase/Redemptions ( 1.5 to .66) 1.08
Williams %R 12 day -35.53 Weekly - 62.98
Bulls 35.5  Bears 40.9  Bull/Bear ratio .87
Daily DJIA MACD  -56.87 Rising/ Positive cross 8-25
Weekly MACD -204. Flat /Negative cross 5-16

NYSE New Highs 50 (12/7-10 429) New Lows (8-8-11 1345 )84
ASDAQ New Highs 36106
Advance/Declines

Daily NYSE Advance-Decline  -792 Nasdaq Advance-Decline -1121
Daily Mikey A/D line NYSE (7-7 37567) (8-8 19199) 24637    
Daily Mikey A/D line NASDAQ (2-18 10095) (8-22-10-10443) -10092
5 day AD NYSE- +16  NASDAQ +2103 NYSE..(OB +4000 OS -4000)
10 day AD NYSE +12 (6000 OB -6000 OS)
% above 200 day ave  24%

below 50% indicates intermediate trend down

Days to option expiration 24

DJI Moving Averages

5 day 11399 Rising/ Price above

20 day 11330  Rising/ Price above
50 day 11636 Falling/Price below

90 day 11927  Falling/Price below
200 day 12001 Flat Price below

20 week 11966 Flat/Price below
50 week 11855  Flat/ Price below
90 week 11232 Flat/Price/above
200 week 10665  Falling/ Price above

Daily comments for last 30 days:

8-18 Dji drops 400 back near its 200 week and near its long term reversal point of 10,732

8-22 QE3 Ben talks tomorrow. meanwhile market working off oversold condition. Gold rumbles past 1900 margin increase anyone?? Dollar quietly up
8-23 Going into the Fed statement tomorrow the markets have anticipated the Fed to prop up assets and keep this thing from rolling over. Forget the idea that the economy is going to fall into recession. The idea is the same as it was in 2009 and 2010 that the Fed is going to catch it here and print. That is what today's 322 up day was saying. IBD went to market in confirmed uptrend today. Mikey 10 has run positive for the last 2 days the trend has a tendence to follow the 10 up and down. I think it is too early to call here with only 2 days posiitve.
8-24 Gold was 97.50 lower today closing at 1763.80. If this is the same move that I have seen by most parabolic breaks it should see the 90 day average quickly. That average is just happens to be at the July 11 breakout at 1580 or GLD (154).
8-25 Warren Buffett buys 50 billion B of A preferred in private placement. Hey it was his idea they really did not need the money. Who could not use a spare 50 billion.
8-26 No QE3 but don't tell that to the market because it acted like it today
8-29 Greek banks and US economy OK today B of A sells 6 billion holding in China.But I am sure that they don't need the money.
8-30 Pimpco's (SIC) Bill Gross is now buying US bonds. I guess he is buying them from the Fed and the banks who I am sure are big sellers now. Bonds are starting to look as scary to me as Gold. Interest rates that pay anything are only available in stocks and corporate bonds. Believe me they are taking advantage of these low rates and the public is buying what they are selling. Any investor that invests a these current rates will lose half of their principle in the coming years.  This is going to be the next big debacle that the public faces it has been a long time since the public face interest rte risk but they are now. The Fed says that it will not raise rates for the next two years. That is hard for me to believe.
8-31 Bonds are weakening as commodities and the market challenge their downtrends. If the Fed is doing nothing then the bond vigilante's are going to come back. They raise rates as commodities and assets rise. The dollar is the beneficiary. This is the exact opposite of easing which is what the Fed has been doing. The economic news is turn more positive. This would support the vigilantes.
9-1 The dollar ran up to the 50 day average today and pulled back. The number on the UUP is 21.22 That is the number to watch. The jobs report comes in tomorrow will it show strength???
9-2 The market is falling and the long bonds are rising but the dollar is turning up and is at a 3 week high. This is different than the QE's that the Fed ran. Are they cutting asset prices free to trade on their own merits. Watch to see if this action continues. It would imply that the world economy is weaker than the US.  OMG
9-6 Dollar breaks downtrend line trend turns up Put/calls 1.16 highest since 8-8
9-7 Gold breaks $55 it appears to me that this is the top Market rallies 275 traps puts and shorts
9-8 Power outage did not post
9-9 Dollar powers to a 5 month high commodities look wobbly, 10 year note at 1.92 30 year at 3.24
market dives 300 points risk traders are taking it on the chin
9-12(OpXpWk) Keep in mind this is options expiration week and going into this week there are alot of put holders. I doubt that they will be winners and a market rally to possibly the top of the trading range of 11600 would not surprise me.
9-13 It looks to me like we are in a trading range and we are near the bottom of that range.  That range is 10700 to 11700 which is the 200 week on the low side and the 200 day on the upside.
9-14 Talk is that the Fed will be buying long end and selling short end. That is I believe a plant by the Fed Look for long rates to stall in here I think the rally in these is topping.
9-15 The shorts are losing their grip. Put/call ratio ran a low .49 today indicating no interest in short this rally. I still think wee take out the 11700 high which is the 200 day average. That would give the bulls bragging rights with a new high and a break above the 200 day average which is a buy signal to trades
9-16 Puts vaporize at expiration. Market closes near top of range.
9-19 Recent $ strength eating away at commodities markets
9-20 The DJI was up 7.65 but most indexes and indicators were down today. Their story is still negative and I think they are pressuring law makers to "do the right thing. this reminds me of 2008 before the Congress pasted the 800 billion bailout. If they balk then the market will teach them that they must comply with the powers that be.