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Mikey's Short Term Trading Rules

1) Make up a list of stocks, commodities or ETF's to trade. This list should be names that have good earnings and high relative strength.
2) Monitor this list and throw out the weaker names
3) Buy only stocks or ETF's that are intermediate and daily up (green) and the market is Daily and intermediate term up (green)
4) Buy pullbacks on these stocks to the 20 and 50 day averages
Usually you get 4 to 6 20 day pullback buys and 2 or 3 50 day pullback buys in an intermediate term trend
5) More agressive traders can buy the 7 day average in the first 3 to 8 weeks of the uptrend.
6) Buy pullbacks not runups. A buy should not be easy or exciting but difficult and somewhat scary. DO NOT CHASE
7) Place stop at 5% below the buy price. Do not remove
8) Sell 3 to 5 days after the stock price takes out its most recent 2 week high with at least 15% gains
9) Uptrends that are 12 weeks or more may be ripe for a correction. The first 2 pullbacks to the 50 day are usually safe.
Intermediate term uptrends and downtrends generally last from 8 to 16 weeks with 12 weeks being the norm.
10) Shorting is a viable strategy in downtrends for experienced traders only. In general, reverse the above rules
11) Tweet Mikey @themarketshadow with questions or ideas

Sunday, December 30, 2012

New Format for next year

    I am changing the format for next year.  I am dropping currencies and foreign bonds.  I will concentrate on US bonds and stocks. I am adding a list of stocks which may be trimmed.  The year is ending with the DJI on a sell signal.  It is too early to short but long positions should be sold if you want to stay with my trends system.

    Mikey
    DJI Trend Summary
    Hourly Downtrend: 13192 12-21 (33 hrs)
    Daily Downtrend: 12938 on 12-28 (1 days)
    Intermediate Downtrend: at 12938 on 12-28 (1 days)
    Long Term Uptrend 11315 on 11-1-10  2 years + 2 months
    IBD Market in under pressure 13105 12-26
    Long Term UP/ Intermediate down/ Daily Down/Short Term Down
    DJI Close 12938.11 -158.20
    Step up range   13043 - 13344
    Current trading Range 12471- 12973

    Average watch
    50 Hour Ave: 13166 Price below
    20 Day Ave: 13140 Price below
    50 Day Ave: 13068 Price below (no long positions if this line is red)
    20 Week Ave: 13197 Price below
    50 Week Ave: 12994 Price above
    200 Week Ave 11056 Price above
    Last high 9-14 13653 Last Low 11-15 12471 
     
    MACD 
    Short term (50 hour) down (33Hours)
    MACD -50.86
    Daily trend (50 day) Down  1 days 12-28
    MACD Daily +19.30 Negative Cross 12-27
    Intermediate trend (50 week) down (1 days).signal 12-28 12938
    MACD Weekly (+33.91) Negative cross  10-23-12
    Long term trend (200 week) Up 25 months)...signal 12/1/10 11577
    MACD Monthly (+507.33) Negative Cross 11/8/12.
     
    Volume Readings
    Volume (Millions) NYSE 2384  NASDAQ 1125
    Advance/Decline NYSE -1116 NASDAQ -814
    Mikey NYSE A/D line +67111 Mikey NASDAQ A/D line -16418
    Trader Psychology
    Put/Call day .94 10 day .75 Put Prem/Call Prem 1.03 10 day .97
    New Highs NYSE 41 NASDAQ 25  New Lows  NYSE 30 NASDAQ 33
      
    Closing Prices

    US Stocks
    DJIA 12938.11 -158.20 S/P 500 1402.43 -15.67 NASDAQ 2960.31 -25.60
    DJT 5220.98 -44.72 DJU 446.70 -4.28
    US Debt Markets
    US Gov rates: 6 mo .145% 2 yr .258% 5 yr .715% 10 yr 1.70% 30 yr  2.87%
    IEF (US 7-10 yr) 108.06 +.25 TLT (20 yr) 123.31 +.70 High Yield 92.95 -.25
    MUB(NatMuni) 110.42 -.39 Cal Muni(NCA)10.00 -
    BND Total Bnd Ind 84.11 +.02
    Commodities 
    CRB Commodities Index 294.78 -.77 
    Gold  1655.90 -7.80 Silver 29.97 -.26
    Copper 3.59 -.01 Platinum 1517.40 -14.40
    Oil 90.80 -.07 RBOB 2.80  -.02 Nat Gas 3.47 +.06
    US Dollar Index
    Dollar Index 79.78 +.16
    US Dollar Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term

    All Market Trends:
    Short term trading rules:
    Initiate long positions when Intermediate and Daily Trends are green AND the Short term turns green from yellow or red  (Caution: The signal is usually the second time it turns green)
    Take profits 3-5 days after 20 day high
    Enter  sell stop below the 20 day low or at 7% loss
    Commodities
    Gold:      LongTerm/ Intermediate Term  Daily Trend/ Short term
    Silver:    Long Term / Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Copper  :Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Oil:         Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Gasoline Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/  Short term
    Nat Gas :Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    CRB        Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Bond Markets
    US Bonds LT Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/  Short term
    US Corp BBB   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term  
    US Muni        Long Term Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend   Short Trend
    High Yield     Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Stocks
    US      Long Term    / Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/  Short term
    Europe Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    China     Long Term/ Intermediate Term Daily Trend/ / Short term
    Brazil  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    India   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Emerg Mkts   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/Short term
    Japan Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term


    Selected Stocks
    AAPLLong Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    BIDU Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    QCOM Long Term/ Intermediate Term/Daily Trend/ Short term
    NOK Long Term/Intermediate Term/Daily Trend Short term
    VZ    Long Term/Intermediate Term/Daily Trend Short term
    T      Long Term/Intermediate Term/Daily Trend Short term
    FB     Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short termdvn
    MCD Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    YUM   Long Term/Intermediate Term/Daily Trend Short term
    WMT Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    COST Long Term/ Intermediate Term Daily Trend/ Short term
    AMZN Long Term/Intermediate Term/Daily Trend Short term
    NKE Long term/ Intermediate Term Daily Trend/Short term
    DECK Long Term/Intermediate Term/Daily Trend Short term
    FDX Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    UPS  Long Term/Intermediate Term/Daily Trend Short term
    APA  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    DVN Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    SLB Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    HAL Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    LEN  Long term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    KBH Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    CAT Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/Short term
    DAL Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    LCC Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    NUE Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    X      Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    JPM   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    WFC Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    BAC Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    ADBE Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term 
    RHT Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    MSFT Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    IBM Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    MOLong Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    PGLong Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    CLXLong Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    MRKLong Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    PFELong Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    AETLong Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    BRK.BLong Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term


       


       
     
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