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Mikey's Short Term Trading Rules

1) Make up a list of stocks, commodities or ETF's to trade. This list should be names that have good earnings and high relative strength.
2) Monitor this list and throw out the weaker names
3) Buy only stocks or ETF's that are intermediate and daily up (green) and the market is Daily and intermediate term up (green)
4) Buy pullbacks on these stocks to the 20 and 50 day averages
Usually you get 4 to 6 20 day pullback buys and 2 or 3 50 day pullback buys in an intermediate term trend
5) More agressive traders can buy the 7 day average in the first 3 to 8 weeks of the uptrend.
6) Buy pullbacks not runups. A buy should not be easy or exciting but difficult and somewhat scary. DO NOT CHASE
7) Place stop at 5% below the buy price. Do not remove
8) Sell 3 to 5 days after the stock price takes out its most recent 2 week high with at least 15% gains
9) Uptrends that are 12 weeks or more may be ripe for a correction. The first 2 pullbacks to the 50 day are usually safe.
Intermediate term uptrends and downtrends generally last from 8 to 16 weeks with 12 weeks being the norm.
10) Shorting is a viable strategy in downtrends for experienced traders only. In general, reverse the above rules
11) Tweet Mikey @themarketshadow with questions or ideas

Saturday, December 29, 2012

DJI rolls over the cliff Now in downtrend

    The DJI rolled over the cliff today and is now in a downtrend on the intermediate, daily and the hourly.  The trend will be down unless the DJI closes back over 13068.

    Mikey
    DJI Trend Summary 
    Daily Downtrend  12938 on 12-28 1 days
    Intermediate Downtrend at 12938 on 12-28 1 days old
    Long Term Uptrend 11315 on 11-1-10 2 years old


    IBD Market in under pressure 13105 12-26
    Long Term UP/ Intermediate down/ Daily Down/Short Term Down
    DJI Close 12938.11 -158.20
     
    Step up range   13043 - 13344
    Current trading Range 12471- 12973

    Average watch
    50 Hour Ave: 13166 Price below
    20 Day Ave: 13140 Price below
    50 Day Ave: 13068 Price below (no long positions if this line is red)
    20 Week Ave: 13197 Price below
    50 Week Ave: 12994 Price above
    200 Week Ave 11056 Price above
    Last high 9-14 13653 Last Low 11-15 12471 
    Overbought/Oversold Oscillator(Mikey reading) +150  to -150
    Take profits  at +150 readings  buy or cover at -150 readings
    3 day -92 N  7 day -81 N 20 day -3 N  50 day +29 N
    MACD Readings
    MACD Crosses: Negative cross = consolidation/correction Positive cross=uptrend
    Short term (50 hour) down (33Hours)
    MACD -50.86
    Daily trend (50 day) Down  1 days 12-28
    MACD Daily +19.30 Negative Cross 12-27
    Intermediate trend (50 week) down (1 days).signal 12-28 12938
    MACD Weekly (+33.91) Negative cross  10-23-12
    Long term trend (200 week) Up 25 months)...signal 12/1/10 11577
    MACD Monthly (+507.33) Negative Cross 11/8/12.

    Volume Readings
    Volume (Millions) NYSE 2384  NASDAQ 1125
    Advance/Decline NYSE -1116 NASDAQ -814
    Mikey NYSE A/D line +67111 Mikey NASDAQ A/D line -16418
    Trader Psychology
    Put/Call day .94 10 day .75 Put Prem/Call Prem 1.03 10 day .97
    New Highs NYSE 41 NASDAQ 25  New Lows  NYSE 30 NASDAQ 33
      
    Closing Prices

    US Stocks
    DJIA 12938.11 -158.20 S/P 500 1402.43 -15.67 NASDAQ 2960.31 -25.60
    DJT 5220.98 -44.72 DJU 446.70 -4.28
    US Debt Markets
    US Gov rates: 6 mo .145% 2 yr .258% 5 yr .715% 10 yr 1.70% 30 yr  2.87%
    IEF (US 7-10 yr) 108.06 +.25 TLT (20 yr) 123.31 +.70 High Yield 92.95 -.25
    MUB(NatMuni) 110.42 -.39 Cal Muni(NCA)10.00 -
    BND Total Bnd Ind 84.11 +.02
    Commodities 
    CRB Commodities Index 294.78 -.77 
    Gold  1655.90 -7.80 Silver 29.97 -.26
    Copper 3.59 -.01 Platinum 1517.40 -14.40
    Oil 90.80 -.07 RBOB 2.80  -.02 Nat Gas 3.47 +.06
    US Dollar Index and World Currencies
    Euro 1.3117 -.0024 Pound 1.5987 +.0062 Swiss Franc 1.0768 -.0001
    Canadian Dollar .9979 -.0017  Aussie Dollar 1.0389 -.0008 Yen .11393 -.0001
    Dollar Index 79.78 +.16
     
    All Market Trends:
    Short term trading rules:
    Initiate long positions when Intermediate and Daily Trends are green AND the Short term turns green from yellow or red 
    Take profits 3-5 days after 20 day high
    Enter  sell stop below the 20 day low
    Commodities
    Gold:      LongTerm/ Intermediate Term  Daily Trend/ Short term
    Silver:    Long Term / Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Copper  :Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Oil:         Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Gasoline Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/  Short term
    Nat Gas :Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    CRB        Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Bond Markets
    US Bonds LT Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/  Short term
    Intl  Treas       Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend /Short term
    Intl Corp          Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/  Short term
    US Muni        Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend   Short Trend
    High Yield     Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Currencies
    Aussie DollarLong Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ / Short term
    Brit PD         Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Euro             Long Term/Intermediate Term/Daily Trend Short term
    Yen               Long Term/ Intermediate Term/Daily Trend/  Short term
    Swiss            Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Can Dollar   Long term/ Intermediate Term Daily Trend/ Short term
    US Dollar   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Stocks
    US      Long Term    / Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/  Short term
    Europe Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    China     Long Term/ Intermediate Term Daily Trend/ / Short term
    Brazil  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    India   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Emerg Mkts   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/Short term
    Japan Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term

    Selected Stocks
    AAPLLong Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    BIDU Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    QCOM Long Term/ Intermediate Term/Daily Trend/ Short term
    NOK Long Term/Intermediate Term/Daily Trend Short term
    VZ    Long Term/Intermediate Term/Daily Trend Short term
    T      Long Term/Intermediate Term/Daily Trend Short term
    FB     Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short termdvn
    MCD Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    YUM   Long Term/Intermediate Term/Daily Trend Short term
    WMT Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    COST Long Term/ Intermediate Term Daily Trend/ Short term
    AMZN Long Term/Intermediate Term/Daily Trend Short term
    NKE Long term/ Intermediate Term Daily Trend/Short term
    DECK Long Term/Intermediate Term/Daily Trend Short term
    FDX Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    UPS  Long Term/Intermediate Term/Daily Trend Short term
    APA  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    DVN Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    SLB Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    HAL Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    LEN  Long term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    CAT Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/Short term
    DAL Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    LCC Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    NUE Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    X      Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    JPM   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    BAC Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    ADBE Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term 
    RHT Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    MSFT Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    IBM Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    MOLong Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    PGLong Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    CLXLong Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    MRKLong Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    PFELong Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    AETLong Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    BRK.BLong Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term









       


       
     
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