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Mikey's Short Term Trading Rules

1) Make up a list of stocks, commodities or ETF's to trade. This list should be names that have good earnings and high relative strength.
2) Monitor this list and throw out the weaker names
3) Buy only stocks or ETF's that are intermediate and daily up (green) and the market is Daily and intermediate term up (green)
4) Buy pullbacks on these stocks to the 20 and 50 day averages
Usually you get 4 to 6 20 day pullback buys and 2 or 3 50 day pullback buys in an intermediate term trend
5) More agressive traders can buy the 7 day average in the first 3 to 8 weeks of the uptrend.
6) Buy pullbacks not runups. A buy should not be easy or exciting but difficult and somewhat scary. DO NOT CHASE
7) Place stop at 5% below the buy price. Do not remove
8) Sell 3 to 5 days after the stock price takes out its most recent 2 week high with at least 15% gains
9) Uptrends that are 12 weeks or more may be ripe for a correction. The first 2 pullbacks to the 50 day are usually safe.
Intermediate term uptrends and downtrends generally last from 8 to 16 weeks with 12 weeks being the norm.
10) Shorting is a viable strategy in downtrends for experienced traders only. In general, reverse the above rules
11) Tweet Mikey @themarketshadow with questions or ideas

Wednesday, November 14, 2012

Cal Munis ...High Yield debt turn intermediate term down


    Cal Munis and High Yield debt rolled over on their intermediate term trends and that means long positions should be sold or drastically cut back. This follows last weeks sever break in the Utilities index.

    Stocks are now reaching oversold status in the short term with the Mikey3 at -135, the Mikey7 at -165.  That's the good news the bad news is that the downtrend is gaining traction.  Gold and silver bucked the trend but the mining stocks are getting beat everything else.  In the past, the miners would lead the metals.  Gold and Silver still have their intermediate term up status for now but sell if they break that trend.

    The NASDAQ A/D line made a new low today and the % of NYSE stock above their 200 day is now 42%. That is further confirmation of a intermediate term down trend.

    Mikey
    DJI Trend Summary
    Daily Downtrend 13344 on 10-23 
    Intermediate Downtrend  at 12932 on 11-7 5 days old
    Long Term Uptrend 11315 on 11-1-10 2 years old
    Last high 9-14 13653  Last Low  11-14 12542
    20 day average rallies since downtrend began  0
    50 day averge rallies since uptrend  began 0
    IBD Market in correction 10-13 13344
     Long Term UP/ Intermediate Term Up/ Daily Trend Down/Short Term up
    DJI Close 12542.95 -185.28
    Step up range: 13043 - 13344
    Current trading range 12542 - 12973
    Step down support range 12000-12966

    Average watch
    50 Hour Ave: 12898 Price below
    20 Day Ave: 13110 Price below
    50 Day Ave: 13306 Price below (no long positions if this line is red)
    20 Week Ave: 13153 Price below
    50 Week Ave: 12892 Price below
    200 Week Ave 10973 Price above

    Overbought/Oversold Oscillator(Mikey reading) +150  to -150
    Take profits  at +150 readings  buy or cover at -150 readings
    3 day -145 OS  7 day -165 OS 20 day -66 OS  50 day +9
    MACD Readings
    MACD Crosses: Negative cross = consolidation/correction Positive cross=uptrend
    Short term (50 hour) down (36Hrs) signal 11-7
    MACD Hourly -74.93
    Daily trend (50 day) Down 16 days 10-23-12
    MACD Daily -176.35 Negative cross 9-26
    Intermediate trend (50 week) Down (6 days).signal 11-7 12400
    MACD Weekly (+73.62) Negative cross  10-23-12
    Long term trend (200 week) Up (23 months)...signal 12/1/10 11577
    MACD Monthly (+500.92) Negative Cross 11/8/12.

    Volume Readings
    Volume (Millions) NYSE 4020  NASDAQ 2051
    Advance/Decline NYSE -2417 NASDAQ -1457
    Mikey NYSE A/D line +59585 Mikey NASDAQ A/D line -19908 (new low)
    Trader Psychology
    Put/Call day 1.11 10 day .88 Put Prem/Call Prem  1.2110 day 1.06
    Bull/Bear Ratio 1.33  Bulls 38.3 %, Bears 28.7%
    Mutial Funds Buy/Redeem ratio 1.15
    VIX 17.92 Trin  1.39 10 day ave 1.29
    Mikey Fear 88 (20 high, 80 low)
    New Highs NYSE 43  NASDAQ 22  New Lows NYSE 134 NASDAQ 136
    % Stocks above 200 day ave 42% (above 50% intermediate term uptrend)

    Closing Prices
     
    US Stocks
    DJIA 12570.95 -185.23 S/P 500 1355.49 -19.04   NASDAQ 2846.81 -37.08
    DJT 4925.95 -128.76 DJU 441.23-4.40
    US Debt Markets
    US Gov rates: 6 mo .1420% 2 yr .2540% 5 yr .6235% 10 yr 1.59% 30 yr  2.72
    IEF (US 7-10 yr) 108.90 -.07 TLT (20 yr) 126.70 +.09 High Yield 90.71 -.50
    MUB(NatMuni) 112.76 -.63  Cal Muni(NCA)10.35 -.14
    BND Total Bnd Ind 85.00 -.02
    Commodities 
    CRB Commodities Index 293.92 +1.76
    Gold  1730.10 +5.30 Silver 32.88 +.39
    Copper 3.46 -.01 Platinum 1591.60 +5.20
    Oil 86.32 +.96 RBOB 2.68 +.03 Nat Gas 3.75 +.01
    US Dollar Index and World Currencies
    Euro 1.2637 -.0015 Pound 156.73 -.0034 Swiss Franc 1.0414
    Yen .12229 -.0134 Aussie 1.0380 -.0059 Canadian Dollar  .9911 -.0015
    Dollar Index 81.10 -.03
     
    All Market Trends:

    Commodities
    Gold:      LongTerm/ Intermediate Term  Daily Trend// Short term
    Silver:    Long Term / Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Copper  :Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Oil:         Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Gasoline Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/  Short term
    Nat Gas :Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    CRB        Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Bond Markets
    US Bonds LT Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/  Short term
    Intl  Treas       Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend /Short term
    Intl Corp          Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ / Short term
    US Muni        Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend   Short Trend
    High Yield     Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ / Short term
    Currencies
    Aussie DollarLong Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ / Short term
    Brit PD         Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Euro             Long Term/Intermediate Term/Daily Trend Short term
    Yen               Long Term/ Intermediate Term/Daily Trend/  Short term
    Swiss            Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Can Dollar   Long term/ Intermediate Term Daily Trend/ Short term
    US Dollar   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Stocks
    US      Long Term/     Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/  Short term
    Europe Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Germany Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    China     Long Term/ Intermediate Term Daily Trend/ / Short term
    Brazil  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    India   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Emerg Mkts   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/Short term
    Japan Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
     
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