Dji breaks support Daily trend down

The DJI broke support with a gap down and made its low 1 hour into trading. If you were not short or sold the day before you missed the whole decline of 250 points  The rest of the day the market was spinning its wheels. This is the nature of the beast. The move is over before you have confirmation it is on. Now that we know the direction of the daily which is down the longs must move to the sidelines.  Shorts cannot make a move until the intermediate term is broken.  That number is 12966.  A break of that number breaks the 200 day and reverses the breakout of Jul 27. Yesterday's sell off also created a negstive cross on my weekly MACD.  It is the second negative cross on my weekly charts this year and it creates a negaitve divergence from the March high.
  

Oil, Gold and commodities all are now in downtrends.  The Aussie dollar once again is in an the intermediate downtrend. I consider this currency a surrogate for world growth. A look at the commodities trends below will show the weakness and downtrends that are emerging. A trade below 101.80 would project a move to the 94 - 95 area. That would mean world wide economic weakness. It would also extrapolate the DJI to 11000 which is the 200 week average.

Mikey 
 
DJI Trend Summary
Daily Downtrend 13344 on 10-23 1 day
Intermediate uptrend  at 12400 on 6-7 19 weeks old
Long Term uptrend 11315 on 11-1-10 2 years old
Last high 9-14 13653  Last Low  10-23 13083
20 day average rallies since downtrend began  0
50 day averge rallies since uptrend  began 0
IBD Market in correction 10-13 13344
 Long Term UP/ Intermediate Term Up/ Daily Trend Down/Short Term up
DJI Close 13102.53 -243.26
 Step up range: 13295- 13653
Current trading range 12966 - 13344
Step down support range 12300-12966

Average watch
50 Hour Ave: 13405 Price below
20 Day Ave: 13447 Price below
50 Day Ave: 13354 Price below(do not be long if this line is red)
20 Week Ave: 13143 Price above
50 Week Ave: 12823 Price above
200 Week Ave 11031 Price above


Overbought/Oversold Oscillator(Mikey reading) +150  to -150
Trades should be taken at 150 readings in an established trend of at least 4 weeks
3 day -129 OB  7 day +11 N 20 day +7  N  50 day +68 N


MACD Readings
MACD Crosses: Negative cross = consolidation/correction Positive cross=uptrend
Short term (50 hour) , down  (18 Hrs) signal 10-19
MACD Hourly -95.49
Daily trend (50 day) Down 1 day 10-23-12
MACD Daily +-9.71 Negative cross 9-26
Intermediate trend (50 week) Up (19 weeks).signal 6-7 12400
MACD Weekly (+188.65) Negative cross  10-23-12
Long term trend (200 week) Up (22 months)...signal 12/1/10 11577
MACD Monthly (+565.30) Positive Cross 9-1-09


Volume Readings
Volume (Millions) NYSE 3615 NASDAQ 1778
Advance/Decline NYSE -1391 NASDAQ -708
Mikey NYSE A/D line +63565 Mikey NASDAQ A/D line -15450
Trader Psychology
Put/Call day 1.04 10 day.84 Put Prem/Call Prem 1.07  10 day .94
Bull/Bear Ratio 1.60 Bulls 42.6 %, Bears 26.6%
Mutial Funds Buy/Redeem ratio 1.15
VIX 18.83 VXZ 32.07 Trin 2.75 10 day ave 1.35
Mikey Fear  85 (20 high, 80 low)
New Highs NYSE 37 NASDAQ 24 New Lows NYSE 46 NASDAQ 92
% Stocks above 200 day ave 60% (above 50% intermediate term uptrend)


Closing Prices


US Stocks
DJIA 13102.53 -243.36 S/P 500 1413.11 -20.71 NASDAQ 2990.41 -26.50
DJT 5107.32 +42.84 DJU 477.47 -4.27
US Debt Markets
US Gov rates: 6 mo .1505 % 2 yr .2905% 5 yr .7759% 10 yr 1.76% 30 yr  2.90
IEF (US 7-10 yr) 107.41 +.53 TLT (20 yr) 122.5 +1.69 High Yield 92.45 -.53
MUB(NatMuni) 111.85 +.08 Cal Muni(NCA)10.62 +.12
BND Total Bnd Ind84.75 +.19
Commodities 
CRB Commodities Index 299.88 -3.63
Gold  1709.40 -14.90   Silver 31.79 +.46 Copper 3.57 -.06 Platinum 1575.60 -36.60
Oil 86.67 -1.98 RBOB 2.60 -.05 Nat Gas 3.52 +.08
US Dollar Index and World Currencies
Euro 1.2898 -.0072 Pound 1.5784 -,0058 Swiss Franc 1.0551 -.0069
Yen .012295 +.000016 Aussie 1.0279 -.0055 Canadian Dollar 1.0019 +.0002
Dollar Index 80.08
 
All Market Trends:


Commodities
Gold:      LongTerm/ Intermediate Term  Daily Trend// Short term
Silver:    Long Term / Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
Copper  :Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
Oil:         Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
Gasoline Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/  Short term
Nat Gas :Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
CRB        Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
Bond Markets
US Bonds LT Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/  Short term
Intl  Treas       Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend /Short term
Intl Corp          Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ / Short term
US Muni        Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend   Short Trend
High Yield     Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ / Short term
Currencies
Aussie DollarLong Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ / Short term Brit PD         Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
Euro             Long Term/Intermediate Term/Daily Trend Short term
Yen               Long Term/ Intermediate Term/Daily Trend/  Short term
Swiss            Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
Can Dollar   Long term/ Intermediate Term Daily Trend/ Short term
US Dollar   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
Stocks
US      Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/  Short term
Europe Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
Germany Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
China     Long Term/ Intermediate Term Daily Trend/ / Short term
Brazil    Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
India   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
Emerg Mkts Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/Short term
Japan Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term