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Mikey's Short Term Trading Rules

1) Make up a list of stocks, commodities or ETF's to trade. This list should be names that have good earnings and high relative strength.
2) Monitor this list and throw out the weaker names
3) Buy only stocks or ETF's that are intermediate and daily up (green) and the market is Daily and intermediate term up (green)
4) Buy pullbacks on these stocks to the 20 and 50 day averages
Usually you get 4 to 6 20 day pullback buys and 2 or 3 50 day pullback buys in an intermediate term trend
5) More agressive traders can buy the 7 day average in the first 3 to 8 weeks of the uptrend.
6) Buy pullbacks not runups. A buy should not be easy or exciting but difficult and somewhat scary. DO NOT CHASE
7) Place stop at 5% below the buy price. Do not remove
8) Sell 3 to 5 days after the stock price takes out its most recent 2 week high with at least 15% gains
9) Uptrends that are 12 weeks or more may be ripe for a correction. The first 2 pullbacks to the 50 day are usually safe.
Intermediate term uptrends and downtrends generally last from 8 to 16 weeks with 12 weeks being the norm.
10) Shorting is a viable strategy in downtrends for experienced traders only. In general, reverse the above rules
11) Tweet Mikey @themarketshadow with questions or ideas

Monday, October 22, 2012

Black Monday turns into Joker Monday and spanks the Bears

     
    The bears had visions of a 1987 style crash last Friday as the DJI closed right on the edge of a cliff. Today the market jumped over the cliff but evidently had a bungee cord tied attached to its steel underwear and was dragged back up to safety by the one bull left.  That Bull has all the cards and played the joker today and that was enough to erase all of the losses by the close.  The DJI closed up 2.28 points back above the 13300 mark at 13345.

    The Bears were defeated again by the guy who can print the cards and pull them out of his sleeve during the game. The Bears at the table are unarmed and can only growl when Ben pulls out the fake joker. Ben pulled out more than one Joker today and Black Monday turned into Joker Monday.

    Mikey 
     
    DJI Summary
    Daily Uptrend 12822 on 7-20 65 days
    Intermediate uptrend  at 12400 on 6-7 19 weeks old
    Last high 9-14 13653  Last Low  10-12 13296
    20 day average pullbacks since uptrend began  6
    50 day averge pullbacks since uptrend  3
    IBD Market in correction 10-13 13344
     

    Long Term UP/ Intermediate Term Up/ Daily Trend neutral/Short Term up
    DJI Close 13345.89 +2.38
    Current trading range: 13295- 14200
    Step up trading range 14200 -new high
    Step down support range 12780-13295

    Average watch
    50 Hour Ave: 13434 Price below
    20 Day Ave: 13464 Price below
    50 Day Ave: 13355 Price below     (do not be long if this line is red)
    20 Week Ave: 13126 Price above
    50 Week Ave: 12808 Price above
    50 Month Ave 10942 Price above

    Overbought/Oversold Oscillator(Mikey reading) +150  to -150
    Trades should be taken at 150 readings in an established trend of at least 4 weeks
    3 day -71 N  7 day +31 N 20 day +7  N  50 day +74 N

    MACD Readings
    MACD Crosses: Negative cross = consolidation/correction Positive cross=uptrend
    Short term (50 hour) , down  (12 Hrs) signal 10-19
    MACD Hourly -55.11
    Daily trend (50 day) Up 66 days 7-17 12805
    MACD Daily + 9.46 Negative cross 9-26
    Intermediate trend (50 week) Up (19 weeks).signal 6-7 12400
    MACD Weekly (+207.93) Positive cross  7-30
    Long term trend (50 month) Up (22 months)...signal 12/1/10 11577
    MACD Monthly (+578.22 Positive Cross 9-1-09

    Volume Readings
    Volume (Millions) NYSE 3120 NASDAQ 3016
    Advance/Decline NYSE  -70  NASDAQ -14
    Mikey NYSE A/D line +64956 Mikey NASDAQ A/D line -14472
    Trader Psychology
    Put/Call day .89 10 day 83 Put Prem/Call Prem  1.06 10 day .92
    Bull/Bear Ratio 1.60 Bulls 42.6 %, Bears 26.6%
    Mutial Funds Buy/Redeem ratio 1.15
    VIX 16.62 VXZ 31.05  Trin 1.04 10 day ave 1.21
    Mikey Fear  92
    New Highs NYSE 63  NASDAQ 35 New Lows NYSE 29 NASDAQ 56
    % Stocks above 200 day ave 64% (above 50% uptrend)

    Closing Prices

    US Stocks
    DJIA 13345.89 +2.38 S/P 5001433.83 +.63 NASDAQ 3016.96 +11.34
    DJT 5064.48 -17.68 DJU 487.74 -2.02
    US Debt Markets
    US Gov rates: 6 mo .1420% 2 yr .2985% 5 yr .7493% 10 yr 1.82% 30 yr  2.97
    IEF (US 7-10 yr) 106.89 -.04 TLT (20 yr) 120.97 -.77 High Yield 92.98 +.02
    MUB(NatMuni) 116.77 +.07 Cal Muni(NCA)10.50 -.05
    BND Total Bnd Ind 84.562 -.12
    Commodities 
    CRB Commodities Index 303.53 -2.54
    Gold  1726.30 + 2.30  Silver 32.25 +.16 Copper 3.63 - Platinum 1612.20 -3.20
    Oil 88.65 -2.40  RBOB 2.65 -.04 Nat Gas 3.44 -.17
    US Dollar Index and World Currencies
    Euro 1.2970 +.0038 Pound 1.5842 +.0002  Swiss Franc 1.0620 +.0021
    Yen .012279 -.000097 Aussie 1.0334 -.0005 Canadian Dollar 1.0017 +.0005
    Dollar Index 79.73 +.04
     
    All Market Trends:

    Commodities
    Gold:  LongTerm/ Intermediate Term  Daily Trend// Short term
    Silver: Long Term / Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Copper:Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Oil:       Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Gasoline Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/  Short term
    Nat Gas:Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    CRB        Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Bond Markets
    US Bonds LT Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/  Short term
    Intl  Treas       Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend /Short term
    Intl Corp          Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ / Short term
    US Muni        Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend   Short Trend
    High Yield     Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ / Short term
    Currencies
    Aussie DollarLong Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ / Short term
    Brit PD         Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend /     Short term
    Euro             Long Term/Intermediate Term/Daily Trend Short term
    Yen               Long Term/ Intermediate Term/Daily Trend/  Short term
    Swiss            Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Can Dollar Long Term/ Intermediate Term Daily Trend/ Short term
    US Dollar   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Stocks
    US      Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/  Short term
    Europe Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Germany Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    China     Long Term/ Intermediate Term Daily Trend/ / Short term
    Brazil    Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    India   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Emerg Mkts Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/Short term
    Japan Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
     
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