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Mikey's Short Term Trading Rules

1) Make up a list of stocks, commodities or ETF's to trade. This list should be names that have good earnings and high relative strength.
2) Monitor this list and throw out the weaker names
3) Buy only stocks or ETF's that are intermediate and daily up (green) and the market is Daily and intermediate term up (green)
4) Buy pullbacks on these stocks to the 20 and 50 day averages
Usually you get 4 to 6 20 day pullback buys and 2 or 3 50 day pullback buys in an intermediate term trend
5) More agressive traders can buy the 7 day average in the first 3 to 8 weeks of the uptrend.
6) Buy pullbacks not runups. A buy should not be easy or exciting but difficult and somewhat scary. DO NOT CHASE
7) Place stop at 5% below the buy price. Do not remove
8) Sell 3 to 5 days after the stock price takes out its most recent 2 week high with at least 15% gains
9) Uptrends that are 12 weeks or more may be ripe for a correction. The first 2 pullbacks to the 50 day are usually safe.
Intermediate term uptrends and downtrends generally last from 8 to 16 weeks with 12 weeks being the norm.
10) Shorting is a viable strategy in downtrends for experienced traders only. In general, reverse the above rules
11) Tweet Mikey @themarketshadow with questions or ideas

Tuesday, July 9, 2013

Bear and Bull talk

Bears: I can't believe that the market reversed back after the break of the 50 day average and the run up in interest rates. Three weeks ago the economy was weak and that was good news because that meant that the Fed was going to keep rates low.  Then last Friday the jobs numbers were good and the rates skyrocketed and the market went up with the report.  Now the market is above the 50 day and it looks like it is going to new highs so I will cover now and short after the new high. The next time we have a a big sell off I am going to cover because the Fed wants to keep a decline from being to sharp

Bulls: I can't believe that the market reversed up after the break of the 50 day.  I am sure glad I did not sell.  I know the Fed has my back and the next time the market sells off like I am going to load up and make a killing.  It sure looks like the market is going to make a new high and very soon.  What I am learning is don't sell just because we have a sharp sell off buy.

Net Net: The bears have covered.  The bulls are happy they did not sell.  Both the Bears and the Bulls are looking to buy the next sell off.   NOW WE CAN HAVE A SIGNIFICANT DECLINE.
I do not expect a new high and think this rally is about over.

Mikey


DJI Close 152246.69
    DJI Trend Summary
    Long Term UP/ Intermediate UP/ Daily down/Short Term up
    Hourly up 6-27 14928
    Daily uptrend 14978 on 7-5 2 trading days
    Intermediate Uptrend: at 13412 on 1-2 ( 128 trading days)
    Long Term Uptrend 11315 on 11-1-10  2 years + 8 months
    IBD confirmed downtrend 6-20  14758
    Current Trading range   14444 -15542
    Step Down trading Range 14050 - 14444
    Resistence: 15542
    Support 15180 
    Support  14844 
    Support  14400     
    Average watch
    50 Hour Ave: 15079 price above
    20 Day Ave: 15013 Price above
    50 Day Ave: 15092 Price above
    200 Day Ave: 14057 Price above
    20 Week Ave: 14847 Price above
    50 Week Ave: 13949 Price above
    200 Week Ave: 12101Price above
    50 Month Ave: 11962 Price above

    Indicators
    NYSE A/D +1464 NASDAQ A/D +554
    NYSE A/D line 98847 NASDAQ A/D line +2334
    Put/Call 1.05 10 day .93 Put Prem/Call Prem  .83 10 day 1.08
    % Stocks above 50 day average  66
    CNN  Fear/Greed Index 45 fear (100 Greed to 0 Fear)
    Mikey 3 day +95  7 day +69  20 day +4  50 day +36
    Mikey total OB/OS Oscillator  Range (+550 to -550) +204
    Bulls 43.8  (58.8 to 21.3) Bears 20.8 (54.4 to 15.6)  Ratio 2.10
    Mutual Fund Purch/Redemp: 1.13 (.66 to 1.46) High public buy
    DJI PE ratio 16.3   DJI  Price/Book 3.72 (1.27 to 4.13)
    DJI Dividend Yield 2.42(2.38 to 4.45)
    NYSE Vol (in Millions) 3076 NASDAQ Vol 1578
    New Highs NYSE 288 NASDAQ 309
    New Lows  NYSE 36 NASDAQ 16


    Closing Prices
    US Stock
    DJI 15300.34 +75.65 DJT 6440.47 +142.11 SPX 1652.32 +11.86
    DJU 486.32 +3.10   NASDAQ 3504.26 +19.43
    US Debt Markets
    US Gov: 3 mo .043% 2 yr .383% 5 yr 1.50% 10 yr 2.65% 30 yr  3.65%
    Mortgage Rates 30 year 4.53% 15 Yr 3.55%
    Yield:  Investment grade 3.42   High Yield 6.70
    IEF(2-10 year) 101.28 +.28   TLT (US 20 yr) 107.40 +.11
    Muni Bonds 104.21 +.31 Cal Muni (NCA) 9.14 -.02
    LQD (Inv Grade Corp) 113.19 +.10 High Yield 91.16 +.07
    Commodities 
    CRB Commodities Index 283.60 +.96
    Gold 1245.90 +11.00 Silver 19.14 +.10
    Copper 3.06 +.39 Platinum 1368.60 +.60
    Oil 103.53 -.08 Gasoline 2.93 +.04 Nat Gas 3.66 -.08
    Dollar Index 84.78 +.37

    US Dollar Long Term/ Intermediate Term / Daily Trend / Short term
     
    All Market Trends: 
     
    Commodities
    Gold: (GLD)    Long/ Intermediate   Daily / Short term
    Silver: (SLV)   Long  / Intermediate / Daily / Short term
    Copper:(JCC) Long / Intermediate / Daily  / Short term
    Oil: (USO)       Long / Intermediate / Daily/ Short term
    Gasoline (UGA) Long/ Intermediate / Daily/Short term
    Nat Gas:(UNG)Long Term/ Intermediate/ Daily/ Short term
    Commod (USCI) Long Term/ Intermediate / Daily / Short term
    Bond Markets
    US Bonds LT (TLT) Long Term/ Intermed/  Daily/ Short term
    US Corp BBB (LQD)  Long Term/ intermediate/Daily/ Short term 
    US Muni  (MUB)      Long Term  Intermed/ Daily/ Short Trend
    High Yield  (HYG)   Long Term/Intermed/ Daily/ Short term
    Utility stocks (XLU):Long Term/ Intermed/ Daily  / Short term
    Stocks
    US ($DJI)      Long Term/Interrmed Term/ Daily Trend/  Short term
    Europe(IEV) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    China (FXI)    Long Term/ intermed Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Brazil EWZ)  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    India  (PIN)   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Emerg Mkt(EEM) Long Term/ Interm Term/ Daily Trend/Short term
    Japan (EWJ) Long Term/ In termed Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term

    Stocks I like
    These are not recommendations as I am not an analyst or financial planner
    Buy Signal = Daily and Intermediate green, short term turns green 
    IF Long and Intermediate are green buy sell off  to 50 day average
    Buy Put 5% out of the money with less than 1 month to expiration
    or place stop 5% below purchase price
    Sell = price returns to pre selloff highs
      
    AAPL Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    AET Long Term/ Intermediate Term / Daily Trend/ Short term
    AGU Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    AMZN Long Term/ Intermediate Term / Daily Trend/ Short term
    APA  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend  Short term
    APC  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    ATHN Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    AUY Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    AXP Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    BOFI Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    BP  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    BWLD  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    CAT Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    CLNE Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term 
    COG Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    COP Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/Short term
    COST Long Term/ Intermediate Term/  Daily Trend Short term
    CRM Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    DAL  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/  Daily Trend Short term
    DDD Long Term/ Intermediate Term/  Daily Trend Short term
    DISCK Long Term/ Intermediate Term/  Daily Trend Short term
    ELLI Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    FB   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    FDX Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    GILD  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    GLW    Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    GMCR Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    GOOG Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    HAL Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    HD  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    HEI Long Term/ Intermediate Term/  Daily Trend Short term
    HFC Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    IT    Long Term/ Intermediate Term/  Daily Trend Short term
    KORS Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    KMX Long Term/ Intermediate Term/  Daily Trend Short term
    LCC  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    LNKD Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    LEN  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    MCD Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term  
    MELI Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    NOV  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    ORB Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    P      Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    PAA  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    PG  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    QCOM Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    RAX  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    SBUX Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    SLB Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    TM   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    WAG  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    WFM Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    XONE Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Z  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term

    Short ETF's
          SH ( Short S & P)              Long / Intermediate / Daily / Short
          SJB (Short High Yield bonds)   Long / Intermediate / Daily/  Short
          TBT (2X Short 20+Year GOV) Long / Intermediate / Daily / Short
          VIXY (Short term VIX futures) Long /Intermediate / Daily/  Short
          FXP (2X Short China)                Long / Intermediate / Daily / Short
          SEF (Short Financial Index)      Long / Intermediate / Daily / Short
          DOG (Short DJI)                        Long / Intermediate / Daily / Short
          SCO   (2X Short Oil)                  Long / Intermediate / Daily / Short
          DUG  (2X Short Oil Stocks)       Long / Intermediate / Daily / Short
          SMN (2X Sort Basic Materials)  Long / Intermediate / Daily / Short
       

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