Posting Times

Posts will be between 8:30 PM to 10:00 PM PST
Mikey's Short Term Trading Rules

1) Make up a list of stocks, commodities or ETF's to trade. This list should be names that have good earnings and high relative strength.
2) Monitor this list and throw out the weaker names
3) Buy only stocks or ETF's that are intermediate and daily up (green) and the market is Daily and intermediate term up (green)
4) Buy pullbacks on these stocks to the 20 and 50 day averages
Usually you get 4 to 6 20 day pullback buys and 2 or 3 50 day pullback buys in an intermediate term trend
5) More agressive traders can buy the 7 day average in the first 3 to 8 weeks of the uptrend.
6) Buy pullbacks not runups. A buy should not be easy or exciting but difficult and somewhat scary. DO NOT CHASE
7) Place stop at 5% below the buy price. Do not remove
8) Sell 3 to 5 days after the stock price takes out its most recent 2 week high with at least 15% gains
9) Uptrends that are 12 weeks or more may be ripe for a correction. The first 2 pullbacks to the 50 day are usually safe.
Intermediate term uptrends and downtrends generally last from 8 to 16 weeks with 12 weeks being the norm.
10) Shorting is a viable strategy in downtrends for experienced traders only. In general, reverse the above rules
11) Tweet Mikey @themarketshadow with questions or ideas

Thursday, June 27, 2013

Wait a minute Ben didn't say that He was just kidding

Fed's Dudley: QE Could Increase If Labor Market Doesn't Improve


William C. Dudley, president and chief executive officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
The Federal Reserve's asset purchases would be more aggressive than the timeline Chairman Ben Bernanke outlined last week if U.S. economic growth and the labor market turn out weaker than expected, the influential head of the New York Fed said on Thursday.
Pushing back hard against market concerns over the withdrawal of quantitative easing, William Dudley stressed in a speech that the newly adopted timeline for reducing the pace of bond buying depends not on calendar dates but on the economic outlook, which remains quite unclear.
Turning to the question of when the Fed will ultimately raise interest rates, Dudley, a close ally of Bernanke, went so far as to say that recent market expectations for an earlier rate rise are "quite out of sync" with the statements and expectations of the policy-making Federal Open Market Committee.
"Economic circumstances could diverge significantly from the FOMC's expectations.
Even under the timeline for reducing QE3, "a rise in short-term rates is very likely to be a long way off," Dudley said. Fed Board Governor Jerome Powell also suggested financial markets have overreacted to the prospects of Fed tightening.
Stocks are up 150 and 10 year is down 3 ticks to 2.51.  The truth is they have been saying they won't raise rates all year and the 10 year has jumped .75 so they may not raise rates but the bond markets are doing it for them.  The reality is the rates ARE going up no matter what the Fed is saying
 
Mikey


DJI Close 15024.49 +114.35
    DJI Trend Summary
    Long Term UP/ Intermediate UP/ Daily nuet/Short Term up
    Hourly up 6-27 14928
    Daily neutral: 15024 on 6-27 1 trading days
    Intermediate Uptrend: at 13412 on 1-2 ( 120 trading days)
    Long Term Uptrend 11315 on 11-1-10  2 years + 7 months
    IBD confirmed downtrend 6-20  14758
    Current Trading range   14444 -15542
    Step Down trading Range 14050 - 14444
    Resistence: 15542
    Resistance 15180 
    Resistance 14844 
    Support  14400     
    Average watch
    50 Hour Ave: 15031 price below
    20 Day Ave: 15040 Price below
    50 Day Ave: 15031 Price below
    200 Day Ave: 13994 Price above
    20 Week Ave: 14720 Price above
    50 Week Ave: 13860 Price above
    200 Week Ave: 12044 Price above
    50 Month Ave: 11836 Price above

    Indicators
    NYSE A/D +2144 NASDAQ A/D +1459
    NYSE A/D line  96416  NASDAQ A/D line -1637
    Put/Call .91 10 day .98 Put Prem/Call Prem  1.20 10 day 1.04
    % Stocks above 50 day average  52
    CNN  Fear/Greed Index 26 fear (100 Greed to 0 Fear)
    Mikey 3 day +224 7 day -47 20 day --52 50 day +46
    Mikey total OB/OS Oscillator  Range (+550 to -550) +171
    Bulls 41.7 (58.8 to 21.3) Bears 25 (54.4 to 15.6)  Ratio 1.67
    Mutual Fund Purch/Redemp: 1.17 (.66 to 1.46) High public buy
    DJI PE ratio 16   DJI  Price/Book 3.63 (1.27 to 4.13)
    DJI Dividend Yield 2.47 (2.38 to 4.45)
    NYSE Vol (in Millions) 3283 NASDAQ Vol 1640
    New Highs NYSE 95 NASDAQ 123
    New Lows  NYSE 30 NASDAQ 31


    Closing Prices
    US Stock
    DJI 15024.49 +114.35 DJT 6199.87 +50.77 SPX 1613.20 +9.94
    DJU 482.99 +.03 NASDAQ 3401.80 +25.64
    US Debt Markets
    US Gov: 3 mo .058% 2 yr .371% 5 yr 1.38% 10 yr 2.48% 30 yr  3.54%
    Mortgage Rates 30 year 4.38 % 15 Yr 3.46%
    Yield:  Investment grade 42   High Yield 6.87
    IEF(2-10 year) 102.64 +.42 TLT (US 20 yr) 109.85 +1.27
    Muni Bonds 105.89 +.93 Cal Muni (NCA)9.47 +.14
    LQD (Inv Grade Corp) 113.72 +1.02 High Yield 91.50 +.44
    Commodities 
    CRB Commodities Index 277.35 +.56
    Gold 1211.60 -18.20 Silver 18.53 -.85
    Copper 3.05 +.01 Platinum 1325.10 +21.40
    Oil 97.05 +1.55 Gasoline 2.73 +.01  Nat Gas 3.58 -.15
    US Dollar Long Term/ Intermediate Term / Daily Trend / Short term
     
    All Market Trends: 
     
    Commodities
    Gold: (GLD)    Long/ Intermediate   Daily / Short term
    Silver: (SLV)   Long  / Intermediate / Daily / Short term
    Copper:(JCC) Long / Intermediate / Daily  / Short term
    Oil: (USO)       Long / Intermediate / Daily/ Short term
    Gasoline (UGA) Long/ Intermediate / Daily/Short term
    Nat Gas:(UNG)Long Term/ Intermediate/ Daily/ Short term
    Commod (USCI) Long Term/ Intermediate / Daily / Short term
    Bond Markets
    US Bonds LT (TLT) Long Term/ Intermed/  Daily/ Short term
    US Corp BBB (LQD)  Long Term/ intermediate/Daily/ Short term 
    US Muni  (MUB)      Long Term  Intermed/ Daily/ Short Trend
    High Yield  (HYG)   Long Term/Intermed/ Daily/ Short term
    Utility stocks (XLU):Long Term/ Intermed/ Daily  / Short term
    Stocks
    US ($DJI)      Long Term/Interrmed Term/ Daily Trend/  Short term
    Europe(IEV) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    China (FXI)    Long Term/ intermed Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Brazil EWZ)  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    India  (PIN)   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Emerg Mkt(EEM) Long Term/ Interm Term/ Daily Trend/Short term
    Japan (EWJ) Long Term/ In termed Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term


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