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Mikey's Short Term Trading Rules

1) Make up a list of stocks, commodities or ETF's to trade. This list should be names that have good earnings and high relative strength.
2) Monitor this list and throw out the weaker names
3) Buy only stocks or ETF's that are intermediate and daily up (green) and the market is Daily and intermediate term up (green)
4) Buy pullbacks on these stocks to the 20 and 50 day averages
Usually you get 4 to 6 20 day pullback buys and 2 or 3 50 day pullback buys in an intermediate term trend
5) More agressive traders can buy the 7 day average in the first 3 to 8 weeks of the uptrend.
6) Buy pullbacks not runups. A buy should not be easy or exciting but difficult and somewhat scary. DO NOT CHASE
7) Place stop at 5% below the buy price. Do not remove
8) Sell 3 to 5 days after the stock price takes out its most recent 2 week high with at least 15% gains
9) Uptrends that are 12 weeks or more may be ripe for a correction. The first 2 pullbacks to the 50 day are usually safe.
Intermediate term uptrends and downtrends generally last from 8 to 16 weeks with 12 weeks being the norm.
10) Shorting is a viable strategy in downtrends for experienced traders only. In general, reverse the above rules
11) Tweet Mikey @themarketshadow with questions or ideas

Tuesday, June 18, 2013

Market Shaping up for a run to new highs

All systems are go for a new high.  The sentiment is in the fear column and speech by Fed chairman  reassuring investors that the Fed has their back.  I am looking at the following stocks to trade this move.  COP, APC, NOV, DDD, GILD, MELI, KORS, and GLW.  These are not recommendations but potential candidates to trade.  I will put hedge any stock I trade and it will  be 5% out of the money with less than 1 month to go.  Stocks that make new highs will be sold 2 to 3 days after those new highs are made.  They are all on the stocks I like section below and trends are listed.

Mikey


DJI Close 15318.23 +138.38
    DJI Trend Summary
    Long Term UP/ Intermediate UP/ Daily up/Short Term up
    Hourly up 6-17 15157
    Daily Uptrend: 13412 on 1-2 (115 trading days) (Ave trend 60 days-90 days)
    Intermediate Uptrend: at 13412 on 1-2( 115 trading days)
    Long Term Uptrend 11315 on 11-1-10  2 years + 7 months
    Mikey Short term Buy/Sell signal 6-17 up
    IBD confirmed uptrend 6-13  15176
    Current Trading range   14444 -15542
    Step Down trading Range 14050 - 14444
    Resistence: 15542
    Support 1 15180 broken and retaken and broken, etc
    Support 2 14800
    Support 3 14400

    Average watch
    50 Hour Ave: 15169 price above
    20 Day Ave: 15204 Price below
    50 Day Ave: 15014 Price above
    200 Day Ave: 13934 Price above
    20 Week Ave: 14706 Price above
    50 Week Ave: 13923 Price above
    200 Week Ave: 12019 Price above
    50 Month Ave: 11836 Price above

    Indicators
    NYSE A/D +1115 NASDAQ A/D +985
    NYSE A/D line  98076 NASDAQ A/D line -609
    Put/Call .81 10 day 1.00 Put Prem/Call Prem  87 10 day .97
    % Stocks above 50 day average  65
    CNN  Fear/Greed Index 32  fear (100 Greed to 0 Fear)
    VIX 16.61 year range (27.73 to 11.05) Fear (25 high 11 low)
    Mikey 3 day 76  Mikey 7 day -13  Mikey 20 Day -74  Mikey 50 Day 92
    Mikey total OB/OS Oscillator  Range (+550 to -550) +80
    Bulls 45.8  (58.8 to 21.3) Bears 20.8 (54.4 to 15.6)  Ratio 2.20
    Mutual Fund Purch/Redemp: 1.17 (.66 to 1.46) High public buy
    DJI PE ratio 16.7   DJI  Price/Book 3.70 (1.27 to 4.13)
    DJI Dividend Yield 2.43 (2.38 to 4.45)
    NYSE Vol (in Millions) 3013  NASDAQ Vol 1552
    New Highs NYSE 164 NASDAQ 175
    New Lows  NYSE 66 NASDAQ 18
    Closing Prices
    US Stock
    DJI 15318.23  DJT 6358.22 +61.35 SPX 1651.81 +12.77
    DJU 487.81 +2.48  NASDAQ 3452.13 +28.57
    US Debt Markets
    US Gov: 3 mo .04% 2 yr .266% 5 yr 1.06% 10 yr 2.17% 30 yr  3.35%
    Mortgage Rates 30 year 3.98% 15 Yr 3.09%
    Yield:  Investment grade 3.03   High Yield 6.13
    IEF(2-10 year) 105.04-.03 TLT (US 20 yr) 113.79 +.07
    Muni Bonds 106.51 -.50 Cal Muni (NCA)9.43 -.08
    LQD (Inv Grade Corp) 116.37 -.23 High Yield 93.03 +.24
    Commodities 
    CRB Commodities Index 286.43 +.17
    Gold 1366.90 -16.20 Silver 21.68 -.08
    Copper 3.16 -.04 Platinum 1440.10 +5.30
    Oil 98.44 +.67 Gasoline 2.88 +.02 Nat Gas 3.90 +.02
    Dollar Index 80.75 -.22
    US Dollar Long Term/ Intermediate Term / Daily Trend / Short term
     
    All Market Trends: 
     
    Commodities
    Gold: (GLD)    Long/ Intermediate   Daily / Short term
    Silver: (SLV)   Long  / Intermediate / Daily / Short term
    Copper:(JCC) Long / Intermediate / Daily  / Short term
    Oil: (USO)       Long / Intermediate / Daily/ Short term
    Gasoline (UGA) Long/ Intermediate / Daily/Short term
    Nat Gas:(UNG)Long Term/ Intermediate/ Daily/ Short term
    Commod (USCI) Long Term/ Intermediate / Daily / Short term
    Bond Markets
    US Bonds LT (TLT) Long Term/ Intermed/  Daily/ Short term
    US Corp BBB (LQD)  Long Term/ intermediate/Daily/ Short term 
    US Muni  (MUB)      Long Term  Intermed/ Daily/ Short Trend
    High Yield  (HYG)   Long Term/Intermed/ Daily/ Short term
    Utility stocks (XLU):Long Term/ Intermed/ Daily  / Short term
    Stocks
    US ($DJI)      Long Term/Interrmed Term/ Daily Trend/  Short term
    Europe(IEV) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    China (FXI)    Long Term/ intermed Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Brazil EWZ)  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    India  (PIN)   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Emerg Mkt(EEM) Long Term/ Interm Term/ Daily Trend/Short term
    Japan (EWJ) Long Term/ In termed Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term

    Stocks I like
    These are not recommendations as I am not an analyst or financial planner
    Buy Signal = Daily and Intermediate green, short term turns green 
    IF Long and Intermediate are green buy sell off  to 50 day average
    Buy Put 5% out of the money with less than 1 month to expiration
    or place stop 5% below purchase price
    Sell = price returns to pre selloff highs
      
    AAPL Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    AET Long Term/ Intermediate Term / Daily Trend/ Short term
    AGU Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term 
    APA  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend  Short term
    APC  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    ATHN Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    AUY Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    AXP Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    BOFI Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    BP  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    BWLD  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    CAT Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    CLNE Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term 
    COG Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    COP Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/Short term
    COST Long Term/ Intermediate Term/  Daily Trend Short term
    CRM Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    DAL  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/  Daily Trend Short term
    DDD Long Term/ Intermediate Term/  Daily Trend Short term
    DISCK Long Term/ Intermediate Term/  Daily Trend Short term
    ELLI Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    FB   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    FDX Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    GILD  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    GLW    Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    GMCR Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    GOOG Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    HAL Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    HD  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    HEI Long Term/ Intermediate Term/  Daily Trend Short term
    HFC Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    IT    Long Term/ Intermediate Term/  Daily Trend Short term
    KORS Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    KMX Long Term/ Intermediate Term/  Daily Trend Short term
    LCC  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    LNKD Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    LEN  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    MCD Long Term/ Intermediate Term// Daily Trend  Short term
    MELI Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    NOV  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    ORB Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    P      Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    PAA  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    PG  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
     QCOM Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    RAX  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    SLB Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    WAG  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    WFM Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    XONE Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Z  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term

    Short ETF's
          SH ( Short S & P)              Long / Intermediate / Daily / Short
          SJB (Short High Yield bonds)   Long / Intermediate / Daily/  Short
          VIXY (Short term VIX futures) Long /Intermediate / Daily/  Short
          YXI (Short China)                      Long / Intermediate / Daily / Short
          SEF (Short Financial Index)      Long / Intermediate / Daily / Short
          DOG (Short DJI)                        Long / Intermediate / Daily / Short
       

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