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Mikey's Short Term Trading Rules

1) Make up a list of stocks, commodities or ETF's to trade. This list should be names that have good earnings and high relative strength.
2) Monitor this list and throw out the weaker names
3) Buy only stocks or ETF's that are intermediate and daily up (green) and the market is Daily and intermediate term up (green)
4) Buy pullbacks on these stocks to the 20 and 50 day averages
Usually you get 4 to 6 20 day pullback buys and 2 or 3 50 day pullback buys in an intermediate term trend
5) More agressive traders can buy the 7 day average in the first 3 to 8 weeks of the uptrend.
6) Buy pullbacks not runups. A buy should not be easy or exciting but difficult and somewhat scary. DO NOT CHASE
7) Place stop at 5% below the buy price. Do not remove
8) Sell 3 to 5 days after the stock price takes out its most recent 2 week high with at least 15% gains
9) Uptrends that are 12 weeks or more may be ripe for a correction. The first 2 pullbacks to the 50 day are usually safe.
Intermediate term uptrends and downtrends generally last from 8 to 16 weeks with 12 weeks being the norm.
10) Shorting is a viable strategy in downtrends for experienced traders only. In general, reverse the above rules
11) Tweet Mikey @themarketshadow with questions or ideas

Friday, June 7, 2013

Jobs number comes in exactly as forecasted

The economy produced 175000 jobs last month which is exactly what the experts forecasted.  That means the FED has to buy bonds and support the economy but its not so bad that it will hurt earnings. How perfect.  The problem is apparently he Fed is not buying bonds at least not today because the 30 year is up to 3.33% and mortgage rates are 4.125 both near 1 year highs.  Gold and the metals rolled back over into their downtrends.  Foreign markets are in full retreat with the exception of the US and Europe. Japan seems to have stabilized after a week of pullback.

Technically US stocks are back in a uptrend in all time periods after correcting to the 50 day average. The jobs report was nicely timed to allow the rally that was launched Friday.  Resistance comes at the old high of 15542.  Support is at just below 15000 at 14980.  A short term buy signal was triggered Friday at 15200 but just barely so I will call the short term neutral and wait for Mondays action to change this call.

The dollar broke down through its daily uptrend on Monday and stabilized Friday with the jobs report. The breakdown came with a huge rally in the Yen.  The Yen was being used by Japan as the whipping boy for better economy.  I guess learning from the US and its printing to invest methods. The pullback in the Yen was dismissed as a technical selling event of an overbought dollar.

This was the week of the OMEN.   The Omen gave three signals.  The shorts that chased the Omen don't want to talk about it now.  The longs are glad they didn't sell and feel safe because the Fed had their back.  It was an interesting week and a good week to get whipsawed. The Mikey 3,7 and 20 day OB/OS indicators all went negative this week for the first time since November 16th a period of 6.5 months.  That was he last time that the bulls were threatened. Life in stocks has been all gravy.  The sell off this time included the bond markets. Bonds rallied during the sell off in November.   It appears that the Fed is backing off and allowing rates to float higher a sign that they are going to let the economy do its on thing for a while.



Mikey


DJI Close 15248.16 +207.50
    DJI Trend Summary
    Long Term UP/ Intermediate UP/ Daily up/Short Term neutral
    Hourly up 6-8 15178
    Daily Uptrend: 13412 on 1-2 (108 trading days) (Ave trend 60 days-90 days)
    Intermediate Uptrend: at 13412 on 1-2( 108 trading days)
    Long Term Uptrend 11315 on 11-1-10  2 years + 7 months
    Mikey Short term Buy/Sell signal 6-8 Buy 15200
    IBD  MARKET under pressure 5-31 15115
    Current Trading range   14444 -15542
    Step Down trading Range 14050 - 14444
    Resistence: 15542
    Support 1 15180 broken and retaken
    Support 2 14800
    Support 3 14400

    Average watch
    50 Hour Ave:15178 price above 
    20 Day Ave: 15227 Price above
    50 Day Ave: 14934 Price above
    200 Day Ave: 13863 Price above
    20 Week Ave: 14574 Price above
    50 Week Ave: 13731 Price above
    200 Week Ave: 11962 Price above
    50 Month Ave: 11833 Price above

    Indicators
    NYSE A/D +1159 NASDAQ A/D +772
    NYSE A/D line  98539 NASDAQ A/D line -1006
    Put/Call  1.00 10 day .98  Put Prem/Call Prem  107 10 day .96
    % Stocks above 50 day average  63
    CNN  Fear/Greed Index 47  neut (100 Greed to 0 Fear)
    VIX 15.14 year range (27.73 to 11.05) Fear (25 high 11 low)
    Mikey total OB/OS Oscillator  Range (+550 to -550) +29
    Bulls 45.8  (58.8 to 21.3) Bears 20.8 (54.4 to 15.6)  Ratio 2.20
    Mutual Fund Purch/Redemp: 1.17 (.66 to 1.46) High public buy
    DJI PE ratio 16.7   DJI  Price/Book 3.67 (1.27 to 4.13)
    DJI Dividend Yield 2.45 (2.38 to 4.45)
    NYSE Vol (in Millions) 3316  NASDAQ Vol 1610
    New Highs NYSE 93 NASDAQ 127
    New Lows  NYSE 24  NASDAQ 25
    Closing Prices
    US Stock
    DJI 15248.12 +207.50 DJT 6343.38 +147.02 SPX 1643.38 +20.82
    DJU 486.89 +3.72 NASDAQ 3469.22 +45.17
    US Debt Markets
    US Gov: 3 mo .048% 2 yr .314% 5 yr 1.10% 10 yr 2.17% 30 yr  3.33%
    Mortgage Rates 30 year 4.125% 15 Yr 3.25%
    IEF(2-10 year) 104.90 -.80 TLT (US 20 yr) 113.35 -1.87
    Muni Bonds 107.63 -.46 Cal Muni (NCA) 9.93 -.07
    LQD (Inv Grade Corp) 116.65 -.40 High Yield 92.33 -
    Commodities 
    CRB Commodities Index 287.67 +.65
    Gold 1383 -32.80 Silver 21.74 -.96
    Copper 3.27 -.05  Platinum1502.60 -26.70
    Oil  96.03 +1.27 Gasoline 2.87 +.02 Nat Gas 3.83 -
    Dollar Index 81.66 +.14
    US Dollar Long Term/ Intermediate Term / Daily Trend / Short term
     
    Movers with big volume
    BKW 20.13 +.59 1.34X vol

    All Market Trends: 
     
    Commodities
    Gold: (GLD)    Long/ Intermediate   Daily / Short term
    Silver: (SLV)   Long  / Intermediate / Daily / Short term
    Copper:(JCC) Long / Intermediate / Daily  / Short term
    Oil: (USO)       Long / Intermediate / Daily/ Short term
    Gasoline (UGA) Long/ Intermediate / Daily/Short term
    Nat Gas:(UNG)Long Term/ Intermediate/ Daily/ Short term
    Commod (USCI) Long Term/ Intermediate / Daily / Short term
    Bond Markets
    US Bonds LT (TLT) Long Term/ Intermed/  Daily/ Short term
    US Corp BBB (LQD)  Long Term/ intermediate/Daily/ Short term 
    US Muni  (MUB)      Long Term  Intermed/ Daily/ Short Trend
    High Yield  (HYG)   Long Term/Intermed/ Daily/ Short term
    Utility stocks (XLU):Long Term/ Intermed/ Daily  / Short term
    Stocks
    US ($DJI)      Long Term/Interrmed Term/ Daily Trend/  Short term
    Europe(IEV) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    China (FXI)    Long Term/ intermed Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Brazil EWZ)  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    India  (PIN)   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Emerg Mkt(EEM) Long Term/ Interm Term/ Daily Trend/Short term
    Japan (EWJ) Long Term/ In termed Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term

    Stocks I like
    These are not recommendations as I am not an analyst or financial planner
    Buy Signal = Daily and Intermediate green, short term turns green 
    IF Long and Intermediate are green buy sell off  to 50 day average
    Buy Put 5% out of the money with less than 1 month to expiration
    or place stop 5% below purchase price
    Sell = price returns to pre selloff highs
      
    AAPL Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    ACI  Long Term/ Intermediate Term / Daily Trend/ Short term
    AET Long Term/ Intermediate Term / Daily Trend/ Short term
    AGU Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    AMDLong Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend  Short term
    APA  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend  Short term
    APC  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    ATHN Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    AUY Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    AXP Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    BOFI Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    BP  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    BWLD  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    CAT Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    CLNE Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    CLF Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/Short term
    COG Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    COP Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/Short term
    COST Long Term/ Intermediate Term/  Daily Trend Short term
    CRM Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    DAL  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/  Daily Trend Short term
    ELLI Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    FB   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    FDX Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    GILD  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    GLW    Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    GMCR Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    GOOG Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    HAL Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    HFC Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term 
    KORS Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    LCC  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    LNKD Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    LEN  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    MCD Long Term/ Intermediate Term// Daily Trend  Short term
    MELI Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    NOV  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    ORB Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    P      Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    PAA  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    PG  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    PPP   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    QCOM Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    RAX  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    SLB Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    WAG  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    WFM Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    XONE Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Z  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term

    Short ETF's
          SH ( Short S & P)              Long / Intermediate / Daily / Short
          SJB (Short High Yield bonds)   Long / Intermediate / Daily/  Short
          VIXY (Short term VIX futures) Long /Intermediate / Daily/  Short
          YXI (Short China)                      Long / Intermediate / Daily / Short
          SEF (Short Financial Index)      Long / Intermediate / Daily / Short
          DOG (Short DJI)                        Long / Intermediate / Daily / Short
       

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