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Mikey's Short Term Trading Rules

1) Make up a list of stocks, commodities or ETF's to trade. This list should be names that have good earnings and high relative strength.
2) Monitor this list and throw out the weaker names
3) Buy only stocks or ETF's that are intermediate and daily up (green) and the market is Daily and intermediate term up (green)
4) Buy pullbacks on these stocks to the 20 and 50 day averages
Usually you get 4 to 6 20 day pullback buys and 2 or 3 50 day pullback buys in an intermediate term trend
5) More agressive traders can buy the 7 day average in the first 3 to 8 weeks of the uptrend.
6) Buy pullbacks not runups. A buy should not be easy or exciting but difficult and somewhat scary. DO NOT CHASE
7) Place stop at 5% below the buy price. Do not remove
8) Sell 3 to 5 days after the stock price takes out its most recent 2 week high with at least 15% gains
9) Uptrends that are 12 weeks or more may be ripe for a correction. The first 2 pullbacks to the 50 day are usually safe.
Intermediate term uptrends and downtrends generally last from 8 to 16 weeks with 12 weeks being the norm.
10) Shorting is a viable strategy in downtrends for experienced traders only. In general, reverse the above rules
11) Tweet Mikey @themarketshadow with questions or ideas

Friday, September 28, 2012

Sell off continues as Mikey 10 goes negative

This Short term sell off is gaining some traction as the DJI declines 5 out of the last 6 days.  The Mikey 10 is now a -57 and the 5 is -43.  The DJI is just above the 20 day and my short term indicators are on sell mode. The next level of support is 13304.  The dollar is the exact inverse of the dollar and has rallied to near its 20 day average. The C banks have backed off this week and the markets have pulled back.  Volume increased on the decline.


Trends:
Daily Uptrend  12822 on 7-20
Long Term UP/ Intermediate Term Up/ Daily Trend Up  /Short Term down
DJI Close 13437.13 -48.04
Current trading range: 13423- 14200 
Step up trading range  14200 -new high
Step down support range 12980-13423
Key Indicators

Averages
50 Hour Ave: 13518 Price below
20 Day Ave: 13402 Price above
50 Day Ave: 13198 Price above
20 Week Ave: 12948 Price above
50 Week Ave:12719 Price above
50 Month Ave 10904 Price above

Overbought/Oversold readings (Mikey reading) +100  to -100
5 day -43 N 10 day -57 N 20 day +83 N  50 day +76 N
MACD Readings
MACD Crosses: Negative cross = consolidation/correction Positive cross=uptrend
Short term (50 hour),Down (25 Hrs) signal 9-25
MACD Hourly -24.59
Daily trend (50 day) Up 54 days 7-17 12805
MACD Daily +102.67 Negative cross 9-26
Intermediate trend (50 week) Up (16 weeks).signal 6-1 12118
MACD Weekly (+232.05) Positive cross  7-30
Long term trend (50 month) Up (22 months)...signal 12/1/10 11577
MACD Monthly (+579.34) Positive Cross 9-1-09

IBD:Market in Confirmed Uptrend 7-26 12887

Volume Readings
Volume (Millions) NYSE 3374 NASDAQ 1813
Advance/Decline NYSE -654 NASDAQ -758
Mikey NYSE A/D line +65334 Mikey NASDAQ A/D line -12560
Trader Psychology
Put/Call day .90  10 day .73  Put Prem/Call Prem  .81 10 day .64
Bull/Bear Ratio 2.08 Bulls 51%, Bears 24.5% Mutial Funds Buy/Redeem ratio 1.17
VIX 15.73 VXZ 33.81 Trin  1.70 10 day ave 1.54 Mikey Fear  97 (80 Low 20 High)
New Highs NYSE 152 NASDAQ 75 New Lows NYSE 15 NASDAQ 22
% Stocks above 200 day ave 67% (above 50% uptrend)

Closing Prices

US Stocks
DJIA 13437.13 -48.04  S/P 500 140.67 -6.48 NASDAQ 3116.23 -20.67
DJT 4892.62 -48.58 DJU 475.75 +1.87
.US Debt Markets
US Gov rates: 6 mo .1312% 2 yr .2539% 5 Yr .6425% 10 yr 1.63% 30 yr 2.82
Ave Mtg rates : 30 Yr 3.51% 15 Yr 2.87% 5/1 ARM 2.91
IEF (US 7-10 yr) 108.45 TLT (20 yr) 124.22 +.07 High Yield 92.37 -.37
MUB(NatMuni) 112.00 +.23 Cal Muni(NCA)10.65 +.04
BND Total Bnd Ind 85.15 +.08
 Commodities
CRB Commodities Index 309.30 +1.97
Gold  1771.10 -6.50  Silver 34.57 -.09  Copper 3.76 +.01 Platinum 1669.30 +18.20
Oil 92.19 +.34 RBOB 3.36  Nat Gas 3.32 +.02

US Dollar Index and World Currencies
Euro 1.2762 -.0067  Pound 1.5927 -.0092 Swiss Franc 1.0469 -.0033
Yen .012581 -00067 Aussie 1.0403 -.0063 Canadian Dollar 1.0109 -.0029
Dollar Index 80.02 +.43

All Market Trends:

Commodities
Gold:                    Long Term/ Intermediate Term  Daily Trend// Short term
Silver:                  Long Term / Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
Copper:                 Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
Oil:                       Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
Gasoline              Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/  Short term
Nat Gas:              Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
CRB                     Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term

Bond Markets
US Bonds LT       Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ / Short term
Intl  Treas             Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend /Short term
Intl Corp               Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ / Short term
US Muni               Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend   Short Trend/ /
High Yield             Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ / Short term

Currencies
Aussie  Dollar        Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ / Short term
Brit PD                  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
Euro                      Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend   Short term
Yen                       Long Term/ Intermediate Term/Daily Trend//  Short term
Swiss                     Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
Can Dollar             Long Term/  Intermediate Term Daily Trend/  Short term
US Dollar              Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term











Stocks
US                       Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ / Short term
Europe                 Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ / Short term
Germany              Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ / Short term
China                  Long Term/ Intermediate Term Daily Trend/ / Short term
Brazil                  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ / Short term
India                   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ / Short term
Emerg Mkts         Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ / Short term
Japan                  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ / Short term

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