Tracking market trends...An alternative to the main stream financial press
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Mikey's Short Term Trading Rules
1) Make up a list of stocks, commodities or ETF's to trade. This list should be names that have good earnings and high relative strength.
2) Monitor this list and throw out the weaker names
3) Buy only stocks or ETF's that are intermediate and daily up (green) and the market is Daily and intermediate term up (green)
4) Buy pullbacks on these stocks to the 20 and 50 day averages
Usually you get 4 to 6 20 day pullback buys and 2 or 3 50 day pullback buys in an intermediate term trend
5) More agressive traders can buy the 7 day average in the first 3 to 8 weeks of the uptrend.
6) Buy pullbacks not runups. A buy should not be easy or exciting but difficult and somewhat scary. DO NOT CHASE
7) Place stop at 5% below the buy price. Do not remove
8) Sell 3 to 5 days after the stock price takes out its most recent 2 week high with at least 15% gains
9) Uptrends that are 12 weeks or more may be ripe for a correction. The first 2 pullbacks to the 50 day are usually safe.
Intermediate term uptrends and downtrends generally last from 8 to 16 weeks with 12 weeks being the norm.
10) Shorting is a viable strategy in downtrends for experienced traders only. In general, reverse the above rules
11) Tweet Mikey @themarketshadow with questions or ideas
1) Make up a list of stocks, commodities or ETF's to trade. This list should be names that have good earnings and high relative strength.
2) Monitor this list and throw out the weaker names
3) Buy only stocks or ETF's that are intermediate and daily up (green) and the market is Daily and intermediate term up (green)
4) Buy pullbacks on these stocks to the 20 and 50 day averages
Usually you get 4 to 6 20 day pullback buys and 2 or 3 50 day pullback buys in an intermediate term trend
5) More agressive traders can buy the 7 day average in the first 3 to 8 weeks of the uptrend.
6) Buy pullbacks not runups. A buy should not be easy or exciting but difficult and somewhat scary. DO NOT CHASE
7) Place stop at 5% below the buy price. Do not remove
8) Sell 3 to 5 days after the stock price takes out its most recent 2 week high with at least 15% gains
9) Uptrends that are 12 weeks or more may be ripe for a correction. The first 2 pullbacks to the 50 day are usually safe.
Intermediate term uptrends and downtrends generally last from 8 to 16 weeks with 12 weeks being the norm.
10) Shorting is a viable strategy in downtrends for experienced traders only. In general, reverse the above rules
11) Tweet Mikey @themarketshadow with questions or ideas
Wednesday, August 8, 2012
Rates starting to rise
The process is looking like the good old days when the rates ran up in response to higher commodity prices. They used to call them the bond vigilantes and they look like they are back from the bottle that the Fed put them in years ago. This, at some point, will be a plus for the dollar but for now the dollar is down and the Central banks look like they want to bailout Europe again for about the sixth time. I wonder how many time these racketeers can reload a dud. There has to be a limit on this kind of thing but it is way past what I ever believed it could go. The Fed is definitely letting rates seek a different level here and maybe the game will normalize somewhat.
Mikey
DJI Trends:
Daily Up 12822 on 7-20
Long Term UP/ Intermediate Term Up/ Daily Trend Up /Short Term UP
DJI Close 13175.64 +7.04
Current trading range:12980 -13423
Step up trading range 13423 - 14200
Step down support range 12500- 13030
Key Indicators
Averages
50 Hour Ave: 13078 Price above
20 Day Ave: 12901 Price above
50 Day Ave: 12715 Price above
20 Week Ave: 12837 Price above
50 Week Ave: 12413 Price above
50 Month Ave 10861 Price above
Overbought/Oversold readings (Mikey reading) +100 to -100
5 day +74 Nu 10 day Nu +100 20 day Nu +58 50 day OB -+115
MACD Readings
MACD Crosses: Negative cross = consolidation/correction Positive cross=uptrend
Short term (50 hour), up 29 Hrs) signal 8-3
MACD Hourly +31.95 , 8-8 Negative cross
Daily trend (50 day) Up 19 days 7-17 12805
MACD Daily +115.42 Positive cross 7-27 12775
Intermediate trend (50 week) Up (9 weeks).signal 6-1 12118
MACD Weekly (+136.09), Positive cross 7-30
Long term trend (50 month) Up (21 months)...signal 12/1/10 11577
MACD Monthly (+558 ) Positive Cross 9-1-09
IBD:Market in Confirmed Uptrend 7-26 12887
Volume Readings
Volume (Millions) NYSE 3166 NASDAQ 1843
Advance/Decline NYSE +62 NASDAQ -305.
Mikey NYSE A/D line +56913( new high) Mikey NASDAQ A/D line -14929
Trader Psychology
Put/Call day .68 10 day .79 Put Prem/Call Prem .72 10 day .93
Bull/Bear Ratio 1.71 Bulls 43.6%, Bears 25.5%
Mutial Funds Buy/Redeem ratio 1.08
VIX 15.32 VXZ 40.29 Trin .69 5 day ave 1.12 Mikey Fear 99 (80 Low 20 High)
New Highs NYSE 147 NASDAQ 67 New Lows NYSE 17 NASDAQ 35
% Stocks above 200 day ave 63% (above 50% uptrend)
Closing Prices
US Stocks
DJIA 13175.64 +7.04 S/P 500 1402.22 +.87 NASDAQ 3011.25 -4.61
DJT 5075.57 -16.87 DJU 483.13 -.97(trend neutral)
US Debt Markets
US Gov rates: 6 mo .1450% 2 yr .2758% 5 Yr .7274% 10 yr 1.65% 30 yr 2.75%
Ave Mtg rates : 30 Yr 3.55% 15 Yr 2.96% 5/1 ARM 2.99
IEF (US 7-10 yr) 107.79 -.12 TLT (20 yr) 125.07 -.76 High Yield 91.62 +.16
MUB (NatlMuni) 111.40 +.08 Cal Muni (NCA)10.69 +.03 BND Total Bond Index 84.63 -.02
Commodities
CRB Commodities Index 304.32 +.45
Gold 1612.90 +3.20 Silver 28.08 -- Copper 3.42 -.02 Platinum 1410.20 -.70
Oil 93.67 +.32 RBOB 2.93 -.02 Nat Gas 2.93 -.02
US Dollar Index and World Currencies
Euro 1.2393 +.0072 Pound 1.5480 +.0024 Swiss Franc 1.0166 -.0002
Yen 1.2493 -.0066 Aussie 1.0552 -.0022 Canadian Dollar .9977+.0027
Dollar Index 82.42 +.17
All Market Trends:
Commodities
Gold: Long Term/ Intermediate Term Daily Trend// Short term
Silver: Long Term / Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
Copper: Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
Oil: Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
Gasoline Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
Nat Gas: Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
CRB Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
Bond Markets
US Bonds LT Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ / Short term
Intl Treas Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ / Short term
Intl Corp Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ / Short term
US Muni Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ / Short term
High Yield Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ / Short term
Currencies
Aussie Dollar Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ / Short term
Brit PD Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
Euro Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend Short term
Yen Long Term/ Intermediate Term/Daily Trend// Short term
Swiss Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
Can Dollar Long Term/ Intermediate Term Daily Trend/ Short term
US Dollar Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
Stocks
US Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ / Short term
Europe Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ / Short term
Germany Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ / Short term
China Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ / Short term
Brazil Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ / Short term
India Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ / Short term
Emerg Mkts Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ / Short term
Japan Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ / Short term
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