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Mikey's Short Term Trading Rules

1) Make up a list of stocks, commodities or ETF's to trade. This list should be names that have good earnings and high relative strength.
2) Monitor this list and throw out the weaker names
3) Buy only stocks or ETF's that are intermediate and daily up (green) and the market is Daily and intermediate term up (green)
4) Buy pullbacks on these stocks to the 20 and 50 day averages
Usually you get 4 to 6 20 day pullback buys and 2 or 3 50 day pullback buys in an intermediate term trend
5) More agressive traders can buy the 7 day average in the first 3 to 8 weeks of the uptrend.
6) Buy pullbacks not runups. A buy should not be easy or exciting but difficult and somewhat scary. DO NOT CHASE
7) Place stop at 5% below the buy price. Do not remove
8) Sell 3 to 5 days after the stock price takes out its most recent 2 week high with at least 15% gains
9) Uptrends that are 12 weeks or more may be ripe for a correction. The first 2 pullbacks to the 50 day are usually safe.
Intermediate term uptrends and downtrends generally last from 8 to 16 weeks with 12 weeks being the norm.
10) Shorting is a viable strategy in downtrends for experienced traders only. In general, reverse the above rules
11) Tweet Mikey @themarketshadow with questions or ideas

Wednesday, August 1, 2012

Is pre easing rally over?


The DJI has rallied 400 points on the idea of easing because of a weak economy.  The Fed says they will but not yet. Tomorrow is Europe.  Will they throw money at their bond markets. Gold turned short term down today and is resting on its 50 day. Silver culd not hold its 50 and is back in a down trend along with copper. The dollar is just slightly above its 50 day. I think the next direction we take is the right one.  Still just waiting

Mikey

DJI Trends:
Daily Up 12822 on 7-20
Long Term UP/ Intermediate Term Up/ Daily Trend Up  /Short Term UP
DJI Close 12976.13 -32.55
Current trading range:12980 -13423 
 Step up trading range  13423 - 14200
Step down support range 12500- 13030

Key Indicators

Averages
50 Hour Ave: 12899 Price above
20 Day Ave: 12876 Price above
50 Day Ave: 12657 Price above
20 Week Ave: 12826 Price above
50 Week Ave: 12373 Price above
50 Month Ave 10857 Price above

Overbought/Oversold readings (Mikey reading) +100  to -100
5 day +52  Nu   10 day Nu -33  20 day Nu -20  50 day OB -+117


MACD Readings

MACD Crosses: Negative cross = consolidation/correction Positive cross=uptrend
Short term (50 hour), up 35 Hrs) signal 7-26 12776
MACD Hourly +22.39, 7-31 Negative cross
Daily trend (50 day) Up 14 days 7-17 12805
MACD Daily +82.53 Positive cross 7-27 12775
Intermediate trend (50 week) Up (8 weeks).signal 6-1 12118
MACD Weekly (+108.05 ), Positive cross  7-30
Long term trend (50 month) Up (21 months)...signal 12/1/10 11577
MACD Monthly (+542.74) Positive Cross 9-1-09


IBD:Market in Confirmed Uptrend 7-26 12887

Volume Readings
Volume (Millions) NYSE 4275 NASDAQ 1693
Advance/Decline NYSE -748  NASDAQ -1287.
Mikey NYSE A/D line +53958 Mikey NASDAQ A/D line -16902
Trader Psychology
Put/Call day .89 10 day .86  Put Prem/Call Prem  .93 10 day .97
Bull/Bear Ratio 1.42  Bulls 39.4%, Bears 27.7%
Mutial Funds Buy/Redeem ratio 1.08
VIX 18.96 VXZ 42.49 Trin  1.06  5 day ave .86 Mikey Fear 84 (80 Low 20 High)
New Highs NYSE 219  NASDAQ 40 New Lows NYSE 41 NASDAQ 81
% Stocks above 200 day ave 58
% (above 50% uptrend)

Closing Prices

US Stocks
DJIA 12976.13 -32.55 S/P 500 1375.32 -4.00 NASDAQ 2970.21 -19.31
DJT 4986.76 -101.58 DJU489.09 -3.53
US Debt Markets
US Gov rates: 6 mo .1395% 2 yr .2350% 5 Yr .6353% 10 yr  1.52 % 30 yr 2.59%
Ave Mtg rates : 30 Yr 3.55% 15 Yr 2.96% 5/1 ARM 2.99
IEF (US 7-10 yr) 108.69 -.58 TLT (20 yr) 128.44 -1.28 High Yield 91.69 -.01
MUB (NatlMuni) 111.55 -.52 Cal Muni (NCA)10.75 +.10 BND Total Bond Index 84.94 -.29 Commodities
CRB Commodities Index 299.23 -.28 
Gold 1603.70 -6.80 Silver 27.53 Copper 3.39 --Platinum 1401.30 -15.60
Oil 88.91 +.85 RBOB 2.83 +.07  Nat Gas 3.16 -.05
US Dollar Index and World Currencies
Euro 1.2187 -.0043 Pound 1.5388 -.0138 Swiss Franc 1.0021 -.0073
Yen 1.2515 -.0059  Aussie 1.0463 -.0069 Canadian Dollar .9896 -.0018
Dollar Index 83.17 +.36
All Market Trends:

Commodities
Gold:                    Long Term/ Intermediate Term  Daily Trend// Short term
Silver:                  Long Term / Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
Copper:                Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
Oil:                       Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
Gasoline              Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/  Short term
Nat Gas:              Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
CRB                     Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term

Bond Markets
US Bonds LT       Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ / Short term
Intl  Treas             Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ / Short term
Intl Corp               Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ / Short term
US Muni               Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ / Short term
High Yield             Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ / Short term

Currencies
Aussie  Dollar        Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ / Short term
Brit PD                  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
Euro                      Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend   Short term
Yen                       Long Term/ Intermediate Term/Daily Trend//  Short term
Swiss                     Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
Can Dollar             Long Term/  Intermediate Term Daily Trend/  Short term
US Dollar              Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term

Stocks
US                       Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ / Short term
Europe                 Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ / Short term
Germany             Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ / Short term
China                  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ / Short term
Brazil                  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ / Short term
India                   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ / Short term
Emerg Mkts        Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ / Short term
Japan                  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ / Short term
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