Sell signal on Gold

News Highlights


Interest rates spiked today with the 30 year hitting 3.43 and the 10 year closing at 2.30. Considering that the Fed is controlling these rates the Dollar and Gold noticed the move. Gold dropped 32.18 to close at 1642.90 its lowest level in 2 months and is now in a current trend and intermediate term downtrend.  The Dollar is now in a current and intermediate term uptrend. Regardless of what you think of the Fed or the Dollar you have to respect the trend and without a reversal of this move today the trends have changed for both.

The fact is that money is moving out of the world's other currencies and into the dollar and that means that the world economy is weaker than the US economy. The Chinese market is on the edge of a cliff and I believe it is ready to resume its decline that started in August of last year. I posted an article on China yesterday that I think is saying trouble is coming. 

A strong Dollar is the death knell for commodities and until the Dollar reverses trend then commodities should be avoided. Keep a close eye on the trends now because there may be many changes coming. The NYSE had 1433 net declines today  a solid down day. The DJI masked the decline by trading up 16.42 to a new high close of 13194.10. The DJ transports and Utilites did have down days and are close to reversing the breakout of last Friday. A close below 12750 would be a short term sell signal to me.

Mikey

Key Indicators

Current trading range: 12750 -13221 DJI Close 13194.10 +16.42  (new high)
MACD Crosses: Negative cross =consolidation/correction Positive cross=uptrend
Short term (50 hour) UP (26 Hr) ...signal 3-9 12961 
MACD  Hourly +75.73
Current trend (50 day) Up (72 days)...signal 12-2-11 12019
MACD Daily (+91.82),Positive cross 3-14
Intermediate trend (50 week) Up (15 weeks)...signal 12-5-11 12294
MACD Weekly (+348.71), Positive cross 10-24-11 
Long term trend (50 month) Up (16 months)...signal 12/1/10 11577
MACD Monthly (+553.96) Positive Cross 9-1-09
IBD Current trend 12-20 Up  (59 days) Market in confirmed uptrend 12103
Volume(Millions) NYSE 850 NASDAQ 1611
Advance/Decline NYSE -1433 NASDAQ -839
Mikey A/D line 50355  Mikey NASDAQ A/D line -5419
New Highs NYSE 179 NASDAQ 164 New Lows NYSE 18 NASDAQ 25
Overbought/Oversold (+100 overbought/-100 oversold)
Mikey5 +79 N, Mikey10 +31 N, Mikey20 +45 N, Mikey50 +182 OB
% Stocks above 200 day ave 78% (above 50% uptrend)
Trader Psychology
Put/Call day .83, 10 day .82,  Put Premium .61 10 day .69,  
Bull/Bear Ratio 1.64 Bulls 43.6%, Bears 26.6%
Mutial Funds Buy/Redeem ratio 1.18
VIX 15.31 VXZ 51.66 Mikey Fear 99 (80 Low 20 High) 

Averages (uptrend 20>50)
20 hour 13078 Rising/ Price above
50 hour 12950 Flat/Price above
20 day 12956 Rising/Price above
50 day 12769 Rising /Price above
20 week 12430 Rising/ Price above
50 week 12128 Rising/ Price above
20 month 11920 Rising/Price above
50 month 10794 Rising/Price above

Closing Prices

US Stocks
DJIA 13194.10 +16.42 S/P 500 1394.28 -1.67 NYSE Comp 8185.31 -49.15
NASDAQ  3040.73 +.85 DJT 5180.39 -74.11  DJU 454.89 -6.29
US Debt Markets
US Gov rates: 6 mo .1573%  2 yr .3984% 5 Yr 1.13% 10 yr 2.30 30 yr 3.43
Ave Mtg rates : 30 Yr 3.85% 30 Yr Rifi 3.92% 15 Yr 3.13% 5/1 ARM 2.70
IEF (US 7-10 yr) 102.30 -1.59 TLT (20 yr) 111.17 -2.74
Preferred stocks 39.07 -.14 High Yield 91.09 -.27
MUB (NatlMuni) 108.35 -7.02  Cal Muni (NCA)9.80 -.13
BND Total Bond Index 82.84 -.49
Commodities
CRB Commodities Index 315.17 -2.90
Gold 1642.90 -32.70 Silver 32.18 -1.19 Copper 3.84 -.05 Platinum 1675.30 -21.30 Oil 105.33 -1.38 RBOB 3.34 -.02 Nat Gas 2.25 -.05
US Dollar Index and World Currencies
Euro 1.2969 -.0045 Pound 1.5545 -.0016 Swiss Franc 1.0600 -.0083
Yen  1.1748 -.0106 Aussie 1.0465 -.0081 Canadian Dollar 1.0011 -.0043
Dollar Index 80.60 +.34
World Debt markets
BWX (Intl Treas) 58.96 -.49 PCY (Emerg debt) 28.49 -.07 IBND (Intl Corp)32.94 -.33




All Markets Current Trends 

US SECTORS
(Green up Red down White neutral)
Utilities  Energy  Materials  Tech   Healthcare
Retail   Housing  Consumer Discrestionary   Consumer Staples

Airline    Metals and Mining    Financial

World debt markets
US Bonds: 3-7  current trend down
US Natl Muni Markets:: 3-5 current trend down
Emerging Markets Debt: 1-26 current trend up
Intl Corp Bonds 3-5 current trend neutral

Intl Treas Bonds 3-5 current trend down
US High Yield 3-5 current trend up
US Preferred Stocks 11-30 current trend up
Currencies markets

US Dollar Index 3-14 current trend up
Aussie Dollar 3-5 current trend down
Euro 3-5 current trend neutral
Brit Pd 1-26 current trend neutrall
Swiss Franc: 1-27 current trend down
Jap Yen 2-14 current trend down
Canadian Dollar 1-18 current trend upl
Mexican Peso 1-18 current trend upl
Brazilian Real 12-12 current trend up
Indian Rupe 12-12 current trend up

Commodity index
(Broad based) 1-19  current trend up
Metals

Gold: .3-5 current trend down
Silver: 3-5  current trend down
Copper3-8 current trend up
Platinum 3-8  current trend up
Palladium 3-5 current trend upl
Agg, Fiber, Wood
Grains 1-24   Current trend up
Cotton 2-14 current trend downl

Livestock 3-5 current trend down
Coffee 2-7 current trend down
Sugar 3-8 Current trend p
Lumber 2-3 current trend neutral
Energy

Oil  2-14 Current trend up
Heating Oil 1-3 Current trend up

Gasoline 12-21 current trend up
Natural Gas 7-28 current trend down

World Stock markets
US Stocks: 12-14 current trend up

Europe 3-5 current trend up
China: 3-14 current trend neutral
Brazil 3-12 current trend up
Japan 1-18 current trend up
Russia 1-18  current trend upl
India 3-8 current trend up
Total world markets 1-17 current trend up

Intermediate Term Trends
Dollar:Up    US Bonds: Neutral   Gold: Down    Silver: Down   Copper Neutral
Oil: Up   Commodities: Neutral  
International Corporate debt  Down    International Treasuries Down   Emerging Debt: Up
Emerging Markets: Up    Total World Stocks: UP
Europe: Neutral   Brazil: Up   Russia  Neutral   India: Neutral  China: Up   Japan Up