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Mikey's Short Term Trading Rules

1) Make up a list of stocks, commodities or ETF's to trade. This list should be names that have good earnings and high relative strength.
2) Monitor this list and throw out the weaker names
3) Buy only stocks or ETF's that are intermediate and daily up (green) and the market is Daily and intermediate term up (green)
4) Buy pullbacks on these stocks to the 20 and 50 day averages
Usually you get 4 to 6 20 day pullback buys and 2 or 3 50 day pullback buys in an intermediate term trend
5) More agressive traders can buy the 7 day average in the first 3 to 8 weeks of the uptrend.
6) Buy pullbacks not runups. A buy should not be easy or exciting but difficult and somewhat scary. DO NOT CHASE
7) Place stop at 5% below the buy price. Do not remove
8) Sell 3 to 5 days after the stock price takes out its most recent 2 week high with at least 15% gains
9) Uptrends that are 12 weeks or more may be ripe for a correction. The first 2 pullbacks to the 50 day are usually safe.
Intermediate term uptrends and downtrends generally last from 8 to 16 weeks with 12 weeks being the norm.
10) Shorting is a viable strategy in downtrends for experienced traders only. In general, reverse the above rules
11) Tweet Mikey @themarketshadow with questions or ideas

Tuesday, June 4, 2013

The OMEN part III or the sell off continues

How many Omens can this market take.  For the third day in a row the Omen strikes again. 86 new highs and 147 new lows.  The Omen aside this was the 7th negative day in the last 9 trading days.  The A/D line has dropped over 6000 net declines in 9 trading days.  I see many stocks at their 50 day averages or lower. The decline started on May 22 the DJI closed  at 15542, 76% 0f the stocks were above their 50 day average, today 62% of stocks are above. The DJI is only a little over 2% off its highs. It would not surprise me to see a straight shot to the 50 day by the DJI at 14905. 

The interest rate picture saw long rates rise to near 2 year high levels, 30 year mortgage rates have climbed to  4.16%.  Housing stocks touted just last week have fallen 15% as the rates stiffen. All along the Fed says they stand behind the economy and lower rates. The DJ transports are now at the 50 day and the utilities on their highs on May 1 are now at the 200 day average a decline of 12%.

Mikey


DJI Close 15177.54 -76.49
    DJI Trend Summary
    Long Term UP/ Intermediate UP/ Daily UP/Short Term down
    Hourly down 5-31 15347
    Daily Uptrend: 13412 on 1-2 (105 trading days) (Ave trend 60 days-90 days)
    Intermediate Uptrend: at 13412 on 1-2( 105 trading days)
    Long Term Uptrend 11315 on 11-1-10  2 years + 7 months
    Mikey Short term Buy/Sell signal 5/31 SELL 15347
    IBD  MARKET under pressure 5-31 15115
    Current Trading range   14444 -15542
    Step Down trading Range 14050 - 14444
    Resistence: 15542
    Support 1 15180 (broken)
    Support 2 14800
    Support 3 14400

    Average watch
    50 Hour Ave: 15293 price below 
    20 Day Ave: 15241 Price below
    50 Day Ave: 14905 Price above
    200 Day Ave: 13837 Price above
    20 Week Ave: 14589 Price above
    50 Week Ave: 13735 Price above
    200 Week Ave: 11962 Price above
    50 Month Ave: 11833 Price above

    Indicators
    NYSE A/D -777 NASDAQ A/D -884
    NYSE A/D line  97538 NASDAQ A/D line -1419
    Put/Call  .94 10 day .92  Put Prem/Call Prem  1.01  10 day .88
    % Stocks above 50 day average  62
    CNN  Fear/Greed Index 45  greed (100 Greed to 0 Fear)
    VIX 16.27 year range (27.73 to 11.05) Fear (25 high 11 low)
    Mikey total OB/OS Oscillator  Range (+550 to -550) -179
    Bulls 55.2  (58.8 to 21.3) Bears 18.8 (54.4 to 15.6)  Ratio 2.93
    Mutual Fund Purch/Redemp: 1.17 (.66 to 1.46) High public buy
    DJI PE ratio 16.9   DJI  Price/Book 3.75 (1.27 to 4.13)
    DJI Dividend Yield 2.44 (2.38 to 4.45)
    NYSE Vol (in Millions) 3845 NASDAQ Vol 1999
    New Highs NYSE 86 NASDAQ 147
    New Lows  NYSE 147  NASDAQ 18
    Closing Prices
    US Stock
    DJI 15177.54 -76.49 DJT 6257.29 -30.98 SPX 1631.38 -9.04
    DJU 481.33 -1.38 NASDAQ 3465.37 +9.46
    US Debt Markets
    US Gov: 3 mo .051% 2 yr .309% 5 yr 1.05% 10 yr 2.15% 30 yr  3.32%
    Mortgage Rates 30 year 4.10% 15 Yr 3.25%
    IEF(2-10 year) 105.14 -.19 TLT (US 20 yr) 113.55 -1.23
    Muni Bonds 107.60 -.30   Cal Muni (NCA) 9.87 -.01
    LQD (Inv Grade Corp) 116.72 -.46 High Yield 92.36 -
    Commodities 
    CRB Commodities Index 285.94 +1.04
    Gold 1397.20 -14.70 Silver 22.41 -.31
    Copper 3.37 +.04 Platinum 1491.10 -6.30
    Oil  93.31 -.14 Gasoline 2.82 +.03 Nat Gas 4.00 +.01
    Dollar Index 82.74 +.05
    US Dollar Long Term/ Intermediate Term / Daily Trend / Short term
     
    All Market Trends: 
     
    Commodities
    Gold: (GLD)    Long/ Intermediate   Daily / Short term
    Silver: (SLV)   Long  / Intermediate / Daily / Short term
    Copper:(JCC) Long / Intermediate / Daily  / Short term
    Oil: (USO)       Long / Intermediate / Daily/ Short term
    Gasoline (UGA) Long/ Intermediate / Daily/Short term
    Nat Gas:(UNG)Long Term/ Intermediate/ Daily/ Short term
    Commod (USCI) Long Term/ Intermediate / Daily / Short term
    Bond Markets
    US Bonds LT (TLT) Long Term/ Intermed/  Daily/ Short term
    US Corp BBB (LQD)  Long Term/ intermediate/Daily/ Short term 
    US Muni  (MUB)      Long Term  Intermed/ Daily/ Short Trend
    High Yield  (HYG)   Long Term/Intermed/ Daily/ Short term
    Utility stocks (XLU):Long Term/ Intermed/ Daily  / Short term
    Stocks
    US ($DJI)      Long Term/Interrmed Term/ Daily Trend/  Short term
    Europe(IEV) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    China (FXI)    Long Term/ intermed Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Brazil EWZ)  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    India  (PIN)   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Emerg Mkt(EEM) Long Term/ Interm Term/ Daily Trend/Short term
    Japan (EWJ) Long Term/ In termed Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term

    Stocks I like
    These are not recommendations as I am not an analyst or financial planner
    Buy Signal = Daily and Intermediate green, short term turns green 
    IF Long and Intermediate are green buy sell off  to 50 day average
    Buy Put 5% out of the money with less than 1 month to expiration
    or place stop 5% below purchase price
    Sell = price returns to pre selloff highs
      
    AAPL Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    ACI  Long Term/ Intermediate Term / Daily Trend/ Short term
    AET Long Term/ Intermediate Term / Daily Trend/ Short term
    AGU Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    AMDLong Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend  Short term
    APA  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend  Short term
    APC  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    ATHN Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    AUY Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    AXP Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    BP  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    BWLD  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    CAT Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    CLNE Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    CLF Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/Short term
    COG Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    COP Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/Short term
    COST Long Term/ Intermediate Term/  Daily Trend Short term
    CRM Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    DAL  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/  Daily Trend Short term
    ELLI Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    FB   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    FDX Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    GILD  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    GLW    Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    GMCR Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    GOOG Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    HAL Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    HFC Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term 
    KORS Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    LCC  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    LNKD Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    LEN  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    MCD Long Term/ Intermediate Term// Daily Trend  Short term
    MELI Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    NOV  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    ORB Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    P      Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    PAA  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    PG  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    PPP   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    QCOM Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    RAX  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    SLB Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    WAG  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    WFM Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Z  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term

    Short ETF's
        SPXU (2X Short S & P)  Long / Intermediate / Daily / Short
        SJB (Short High Yield bonds) Long / Intermediate / Daily/  Short
        VIXY (Short term VIX futures) Long /Intermediate / Daily/  Short
        FXP (2X Short China)              Long / Intermediate / Daily / Short
        DUG (2X Short Oil Stocks) Long / Intermediate / Daily / Short
       

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