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Mikey's Short Term Trading Rules

1) Make up a list of stocks, commodities or ETF's to trade. This list should be names that have good earnings and high relative strength.
2) Monitor this list and throw out the weaker names
3) Buy only stocks or ETF's that are intermediate and daily up (green) and the market is Daily and intermediate term up (green)
4) Buy pullbacks on these stocks to the 20 and 50 day averages
Usually you get 4 to 6 20 day pullback buys and 2 or 3 50 day pullback buys in an intermediate term trend
5) More agressive traders can buy the 7 day average in the first 3 to 8 weeks of the uptrend.
6) Buy pullbacks not runups. A buy should not be easy or exciting but difficult and somewhat scary. DO NOT CHASE
7) Place stop at 5% below the buy price. Do not remove
8) Sell 3 to 5 days after the stock price takes out its most recent 2 week high with at least 15% gains
9) Uptrends that are 12 weeks or more may be ripe for a correction. The first 2 pullbacks to the 50 day are usually safe.
Intermediate term uptrends and downtrends generally last from 8 to 16 weeks with 12 weeks being the norm.
10) Shorting is a viable strategy in downtrends for experienced traders only. In general, reverse the above rules
11) Tweet Mikey @themarketshadow with questions or ideas

Friday, May 17, 2013

Something's wrong with this picture

High unemployment.  record debt, all time low in interest rates, soaring stock prices, a dollar that is turning up long term and Gold prices closing in on 1.5 year lows and turning long term trend down.  Add to  that oil prices that are rising as the dollar goes up.  If there was ever a reason to trade the trend this is it. If you try to reason this one out you can't resolve it.  

Mikey


DJI Close 15354.40 +121.18
    DJI Trend Summary
    Long Term UP/ Intermediate UP/ Daily UP/Short Term up
    Hourly up 14777 5-4
    Daily Uptrend: 13412 on 1-2 (94 days)
    Intermediate Uptrend: at 13412 on 1-2( 94 days)
    Long Term Uptrend 11315 on 11-1-10  2 years + 6 months
    IBD  MARKET uptrend resumes 4-29 14818
    Current Trading range   14444 -15357
    Step Down trading Range 14050 - 14444
    Resistence: 15357
    Support 1 14444 
    Support 2 14050
    Support 3 13750

    Average watch
    50 Hour Ave: 15177 price below  
    20 Day Ave: 14946 Price above
    50 Day Ave: 14720 Price above
    200 Day Ave: 13715 Price above
    20 Week Ave: 14328 Price above
    50 Week Ave: 13578 Price above
    200 Week Ave: 11872 Price above

    NYSE A/D 1371NASDAQ A/D 957
    NYSE A/D line 103288 NH NASDAQ A/D line -232 NH
    Put/Call .78 10 day .73  Put Prem/Call Premium  .69 10 day .67
    % Stocks above 50 day average  76
    CNN  Fear/Greed Index 91 EXTREME greed (100 Greed to 0 Fear)
    VIX 12.45 year range (27.73 to 11.05) Fear (25 high 11 low)

    Mikey total OB/OS Osilliator  Range (+550 to -550)  435
    Bulls 52.1  (58.8 to 21.3) Bears 19.8 (54.4 to 15.6)  Ratio 2.54
    Mutual Fund Pur/Redemp: 1.26 (.66 to 1.46) High public buy
    New Highs NYSE 462 NASDAQ 261
    New Lows  NYSE 30  NASDAQ 19


    Notable  trend changes


    Dollar Long Term up...This is a big deal
    Gold long term down
    Closing Prices
    US Stock
    DJI 15354.40 +121.18 DJT 6549.16 +81.47 SPX 1667.47 +17.00
    DJU 516.70 +4.83 Compx 3498.97 +33.73
    US Debt Markets
    US Gov: 3 mo .036% 2 yr .253% 5 yr .837% 10 yr 1.95% 30 yr  3.17%
    Mortgage Rates 30 year 3.43% 15 Yr 2.67%
    IEF(2-10 year) 107.50 -TLT (US 20 yr) 117.08 -1.48
    Muni Bonds 110.94 -.24 Cal Muni (NCA) 10.27 -.01
    LQD (Inv Grade Corp) 120.09 -.52 High Yield 95.46 -
    Commodities 
    CRB Commodities Index 287.60 +1.35
    Gold 1364.70 -22.20 Silver 22.35 -.31
    Copper 3.32 +.03 Platinum 1468.00 -17.60
    Oil  96.02 +.86 Gasoline 2.91 +.02 Nat Gas 4.06 +.12

    Dollar Index 84.38 +.66
    US Dollar Long Term/ Intermediate Term / Daily Trend / Short term
     
    All Market Trends: 
     
    Commodities
    Gold: (GLD)    Long/ Intermediate   Daily / Short term
    Silver: (SLV)   Long  / Intermediate / Daily / Short term
    Copper:(JCC) Long / Intermediate / Daily  / Short term
    Oil: (USO)       Long / Intermediate / Daily/ Short term
    Gasoline (UGA) Long/ Intermediate / Daily/Short term
    Nat Gas:(UNG)Long Term/ Intermediate/ Daily/ Short term
    Commod (USCI) Long Term/ Intermediate / Daily / Short term
    Bond Markets
    US Bonds LT (TLT) Long Term/ Intermed/  Daily/ Short term
    US Corp BBB (LQD)  Long Term/ intermediate/Daily/ Short term 
    US Muni  (MUB)      Long Term  Intermed/ Daily/ Short Trend
    High Yield  (HYG)   Long Term/Interm/ Daily/ Short term
    Utility stocks (XLU):Long / Intermed/ Daily  / Short term
    Stocks
    US ($DJI)      Long Term/Interrmed Term/ Daily Trend/  Short term
    Europe(IEV) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    China (FXI)    Long Term/ intermed Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Brazil EWZ)  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    India  (PIN)   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Emerg Mkt(EEM) Long Term/ Interm Term/ Daily Trend/Short term
    Japan (EWJ) Long Term/ In termed Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term

    Stocks I like 
    Buy when Daily and Intermediate are green the short term turns green from
    red or price TRADES DOWN the 50 day average THE FIRST TIME
    Place stop @ -5% Sell 3 to 5 days after 20 day high or after stock double tops
    (These are not reccomendations as I am not an analyst or financial planner
     
    AAPL Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term

    AET Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    AGU Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    AMDLong Term/ Intermediate Term// Daily Trend  Short term
    APA  Long Term/ Intermediate Term// Daily Trend  Short term
    APC  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    ATHN Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    AUY Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    AXP Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    BP  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    BWLD  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    CAT Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    CLNE Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    CLF Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/Short term
    COG Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    COP Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/Short term
    COST Long Term/ Intermediate Term/  Daily Trend Short term
    CRM Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    DAL  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/  Daily Trend Short term 
    FB   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    FDX Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    GILD  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    GLW    Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    GMCR Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    HFC Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term 
    KORS Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    LCC  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    LNKD long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    MCD Long Term/ Intermediate Term// Daily Trend  Short term
    MELI Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    NOV  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    ORB Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    PAA  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    PG  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    PPP   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    QCOM Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    RAX  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    SLB Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    WAG  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    WFM Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Z  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term

    Securities I like:  Long Term
         SPXU (2X Short S & P) 4-14    26.48 Long / Int / Daily / Short
        SJB (Short High Yield bonds) 4-14   30.92 Long / Int / Daily/  Short
        SEF (Short Financials) 4-14  24.90             Long / Int / Daily/  Short
        VIXY (Short term VIX futures) 4-14 9.91 Long / Int / daily/  Short
        UNG ( Gas ETF) 4-14   23.10                     Long / Int  /Daily/  Short
        SCO (2x Short Oil) 5-13 37.50                  Long / Int  /Daily/  Short

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