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Mikey's Short Term Trading Rules

1) Make up a list of stocks, commodities or ETF's to trade. This list should be names that have good earnings and high relative strength.
2) Monitor this list and throw out the weaker names
3) Buy only stocks or ETF's that are intermediate and daily up (green) and the market is Daily and intermediate term up (green)
4) Buy pullbacks on these stocks to the 20 and 50 day averages
Usually you get 4 to 6 20 day pullback buys and 2 or 3 50 day pullback buys in an intermediate term trend
5) More agressive traders can buy the 7 day average in the first 3 to 8 weeks of the uptrend.
6) Buy pullbacks not runups. A buy should not be easy or exciting but difficult and somewhat scary. DO NOT CHASE
7) Place stop at 5% below the buy price. Do not remove
8) Sell 3 to 5 days after the stock price takes out its most recent 2 week high with at least 15% gains
9) Uptrends that are 12 weeks or more may be ripe for a correction. The first 2 pullbacks to the 50 day are usually safe.
Intermediate term uptrends and downtrends generally last from 8 to 16 weeks with 12 weeks being the norm.
10) Shorting is a viable strategy in downtrends for experienced traders only. In general, reverse the above rules
11) Tweet Mikey @themarketshadow with questions or ideas

Wednesday, May 22, 2013

Sell in May and go away?......Hell Yes!

This may or may not be the top but its close enough for me to sell.  This looked like a high volume reversal today.  New high with a lower close on volume.  Support comes at 14900.  A close below that would complete a reversal from a breakout and confirm my idea that the uptrend is over. Again, if the market is below 14900 it is a sell.

The DJIA closed right on the short term uptrend line.  Review the stock trends listed below and you see that some red is creeping in.  All the short EFT's are short term up. 

Mikey


DJI Close 15387.58 (new high intraday)
    DJI Trend Summary
    Long Term UP/ Intermediate UP/ Daily UP/Short Term nuetral
    Hourly up 14777 5-4
    Daily Uptrend: 13412 on 1-2 (97 trading days) (Ave trend 60 days-90 days)
    Intermediate Uptrend: at 13412 on 1-2( 97 trading days)
    Long Term Uptrend 11315 on 11-1-10  2 years + 6 months
    IBD  MARKET uptrend resumes 4-29 14818
    Current Trading range   14444 -15542
    Step Down trading Range 14050 - 14444
    Resistence: 15542
    Support 1 15180 
    Support 2 14800
    Support 3 14400

    Average watch
    50 Hour Ave: 15300 price at  
    20 Day Ave: 15093 Price above
    50 Day Ave: 14797 Price above
    200 Day Ave: 13764 Price above
    20 Week Ave: 14429 Price above
    50 Week Ave: 13637 Price above
    200 Week Ave: 11904 Price above

    NYSE A/D -1748 NASDAQ A/D -1238
    NYSE A/D line 102217 NASDAQ A/D line -1086 NH
    Put/Call .85 10 day .77  Put Premium/Call Premium  .80 10 day .69
    % Stocks above 50 day average  70
    CNN  Fear/Greed Index 90 EXTREME greed (100 Greed to 0 Fear)
    VIX 13.82 year range (27.73 to 11.05) Fear (25 high 11 low)

    Mikey total OB/OS Oscillator  Range (+550 to -550)  256
    Bulls 52.1  (58.8 to 21.3) Bears 19.8 (54.4 to 15.6)  Ratio 2.54
    Mutual Fund Purch/Redemp: 1.26 (.66 to 1.46) High public buy
    New Highs NYSE 493 NASDAQ 270
    New Lows  NYSE 23  NASDAQ 17


    Notable  trend changes


    Closing Prices
    US Stock
    DJI 15307.17 -80.41 DJT 6416.21 -102.74 SPX 1655.35 -13.81
    DJU 507.46 -8.03 NASDAQ 3463.20 -38.82
    US Debt Markets
    US Gov: 3 mo .046% 2 yr .251% 5 yr .909% 10 yr 2.05% 30 yr  3.22%
    Mortgage Rates 30 year 3.66% 15 Yr 2.79%
    IEF(2-10 year) 106.27 -.85 TLT (US 20 yr) 115.86 -1.98
    Muni Bonds 110.60 -.14 Cal Muni (NCA) 10.21 -.01
    LQD (Inv Grade Corp) 119.45 -.95 High Yield 95.10 -.64
    Commodities 
    CRB Commodities Index 286.33 -1.59
    Gold 1367.40 -10.20 Silver 22.47 +.01
    Copper 3.38 +.04 Platinum 1467.20 +10.80
    Oil  94.28 -1.90 Gasoline 2.82 -.02 Nat Gas 4.19 -

    Dollar Index 84.49 +.64
    US Dollar Long Term/ Intermediate Term / Daily Trend / Short term
     
    All Market Trends: 
     
    Commodities
    Gold: (GLD)    Long/ Intermediate   Daily / Short term
    Silver: (SLV)   Long  / Intermediate / Daily / Short term
    Copper:(JCC) Long / Intermediate / Daily  / Short term
    Oil: (USO)       Long / Intermediate / Daily/ Short term
    Gasoline (UGA) Long/ Intermediate / Daily/Short term
    Nat Gas:(UNG)Long Term/ Intermediate/ Daily/ Short term
    Commod (USCI) Long Term/ Intermediate / Daily / Short term
    Bond Markets
    US Bonds LT (TLT) Long Term/ Intermed/  Daily/ Short term
    US Corp BBB (LQD)  Long Term/ intermediate/Daily/ Short term 
    US Muni  (MUB)      Long Term  Intermed/ Daily/ Short Trend
    High Yield  (HYG)   Long Term/Interm/ Daily/ Short term
    Utility stocks (XLU):Long / Intermed/ Daily  / Short term
    Stocks
    US ($DJI)      Long Term/Interrmed Term/ Daily Trend/  Short term
    Europe(IEV) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    China (FXI)    Long Term/ intermed Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Brazil EWZ)  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    India  (PIN)   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Emerg Mkt(EEM) Long Term/ Interm Term/ Daily Trend/Short term
    Japan (EWJ) Long Term/ In termed Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term

    Stocks I like 
    Buy when Daily and Intermediate are green the short term turns green from
    red or price TRADES DOWN the 50 day average THE FIRST TIME
    Place stop @ -5% Sell 3 to 5 days after 20 day high or after stock double tops
    (These are not reccomendations as I am not an analyst or financial planner
     
    AAPL Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    AET Long Term/ Intermediate Term / Daily Trend/ Short term
    AGU Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    AMDLong Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend  Short term
    APA  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend  Short term
    APC  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    ATHN Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    AUY Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    AXP Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    BP  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    BWLD  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    CAT Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    CLNE Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    CLF Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/Short term
    COG Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    COP Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/Short term
    COST Long Term/ Intermediate Term/  Daily Trend Short term
    CRM Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    DAL  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/  Daily Trend Short term
    ELLI Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    FB   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    FDX Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    GILD  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    GLW    Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    GMCR Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    HFC Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term 
    KORS Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    LCC  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    LNKD Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    LEN  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    MCD Long Term/ Intermediate Term// Daily Trend  Short term
    MELI Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    NOV  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    ORB Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    P      Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    PAA  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    PG  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    PPP   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    QCOM Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    RAX  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    SLB Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    WAG  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    WFM Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Z  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term

    Short ETF's
        SPXU (2X Short S & P)  Long / Intermediate / Daily / Short
        SJB (Short High Yield bonds) Long / Intermediate / Daily/  Short
        VIXY (Short term VIX futures) Long /Intermediate / Daily/  Short
        FXP (2X Short China)              Long / Intermediate / Daily / Short
       

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