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Mikey's Short Term Trading Rules

1) Make up a list of stocks, commodities or ETF's to trade. This list should be names that have good earnings and high relative strength.
2) Monitor this list and throw out the weaker names
3) Buy only stocks or ETF's that are intermediate and daily up (green) and the market is Daily and intermediate term up (green)
4) Buy pullbacks on these stocks to the 20 and 50 day averages
Usually you get 4 to 6 20 day pullback buys and 2 or 3 50 day pullback buys in an intermediate term trend
5) More agressive traders can buy the 7 day average in the first 3 to 8 weeks of the uptrend.
6) Buy pullbacks not runups. A buy should not be easy or exciting but difficult and somewhat scary. DO NOT CHASE
7) Place stop at 5% below the buy price. Do not remove
8) Sell 3 to 5 days after the stock price takes out its most recent 2 week high with at least 15% gains
9) Uptrends that are 12 weeks or more may be ripe for a correction. The first 2 pullbacks to the 50 day are usually safe.
Intermediate term uptrends and downtrends generally last from 8 to 16 weeks with 12 weeks being the norm.
10) Shorting is a viable strategy in downtrends for experienced traders only. In general, reverse the above rules
11) Tweet Mikey @themarketshadow with questions or ideas

Thursday, May 2, 2013

Greed hits a 4 week high market nears all time high

Jobs are tomorrow and they have downplayed the numbers so much that it has to beat.  The CNN greed index hit 64 today a 4 week high, meaning that investors are throwing caution to the wind and just jumping in.

I have been reading about computers and algorithms running the stock market. The recent flash crash was blamed on twitter and computers running wild.  This get me thinking. Usually when a top comes it is something that comes out of left field and a computer created crash is buried deep in the left field corner... Just saying...

Mikey


DJI Close 14700.95 -138.85
    DJI Trend Summary
    Long Term UP/ Intermediate UP/ Daily UP/Short Term up
    Dollar Index 82.57 -.39
    US Dollar Long Term/ Intermediate Term / Daily Trend / Short term
    Hourly up 14759   5-2
    Daily Uptrend: 13412 on 1-2 (82 days)
    Intermediate Uptrend: at 13412 on 1-2( 82 days)
    Long Term Uptrend 11315 on 11-1-10  2 years + 5 months
    IBD  MARKET uptrend resumes 4-29 14818
    Current Trading range   14700- 14887
    Step Down trading Range 14334- 14700
    Resistence: 14887
    Support 1 14700 
    Support 2 14434
    Support 3 14050

    Average watch
    50 Hour Ave: 14759 price below
    20 Day Ave: 14700 Price above
    50 Day Ave: 14503 Price above 
    20 Week Ave: 14103 Price above
    50 Week Ave: 13457 Price above
    200 Week Ave: 11803 Price above

    NYSE A/D +1593 NASDAQ A/D +1263
    NYSE A/D line 97453 NASDAQ A/D line -4932
    Put/Call .70 10 day .84  Put Prem/Call Prem .87 10 day 1.00
    % Stocks above 50 day average 56
    CNN  Fear/Greed Index 64 greed (100 Greed to 0 Fear)
    VIX 13.59 year range (27.73 to 11.05) Fear (25 high 11 low)
    Bulls 47.9  (58.8 to 21.3) Bears 18.8 (54.4 to 15.6)  Ratio 2.54
    Mutual Fund Pur/Redemp: 1.26 (.66 to 1.46) High public buy
    New Highs NYSE 295 NASDAQ 121
    New Lows  NYSE 17  NASDAQ 34


    Notable  trend change s


    Closing Prices
    US Stock

    DJI 14831.58 DJT 6094.02 +59.17 SPX 1597.59 +14.18
    DJU 530.15 -1.21 Compx 3340.62 +41.42
    US Debt Markets
    US Gov: 3 mo .058% 2 yr .20% 5 yr .652% 10 yr 1.62% 30 yr  2.82%
    Mortgage Rates 30 year 3.43% 15 Yr 2.67%
    IEF(2-10 year) 109.05 - TLT (US 20 yr) 124.05 +.04
    Muni Bonds 111.83 +.14 Cal Muni (NCA) 10.34 -.08
    LQD (Inv Grade Corp) 122.31 - High Yield 95.72 +.52

    Commodities 
    CRB Commodities Index 286.69 +3.42
    Gold 1467.50 +21.40 Silver 23.83 +.48
    Copper 3.08 -.11 Platinum 1469.50 -37.70
    Oil 93.99 +2.96 Gasoline 2.78 +.06  Nat Gas 4.02 -.30

    Dollar Index 82.25 +.57
    US Dollar Long Term/ Intermediate Term / Daily Trend / Short term
     
    All Market Trends: 
     
    Commodities
    Gold: (GLD)    Long/ Intermediate   Daily / Short term
    Silver: (SLV)   Long  / Intermediate / Daily / Short term
    Copper:(JCC) Long / Intermediate / Daily  / Short term
    Oil: (USO)       Long / Intermediate / Daily/ Short term
    Gasoline (UGA) Long/ Intermediate / Daily/Short term
    Nat Gas:(UNG)Long Term/ Intermediate/ Daily/ Short term
    Commod (USCI) Long Term/ Intermediate / Daily / Short term
    Bond Markets
    US Bonds LT (TLT) Long Term/ Intermed  Daily   Short term
    US Corp BBB (LQD)  Long Term/ Intermed/ Daily  Short term 
    US Muni  (MUB)      Long Term Intermed/ Daily/ Short Trend
    High Yield  (HYG)   Long Term/ Intermed/ Daily/ Short term
    Utility stocks (XLU):Long / Intermed/ Daily  / Short term
    Stocks
    US ($DJI)      Long Term/ Intermed Term/ Daily Trend/  Short term
    Europe(IEV) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    China (FXI)    Long Term/ Intermed Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Brazil EWZ)  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    India  (PIN)   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Emerg Mkt(EEM) Long Term/ Intermed Term/ Daily Trend/Short term
    Japan (EWJ) Long Term/ Intermed Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term


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