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Mikey's Short Term Trading Rules

1) Make up a list of stocks, commodities or ETF's to trade. This list should be names that have good earnings and high relative strength.
2) Monitor this list and throw out the weaker names
3) Buy only stocks or ETF's that are intermediate and daily up (green) and the market is Daily and intermediate term up (green)
4) Buy pullbacks on these stocks to the 20 and 50 day averages
Usually you get 4 to 6 20 day pullback buys and 2 or 3 50 day pullback buys in an intermediate term trend
5) More agressive traders can buy the 7 day average in the first 3 to 8 weeks of the uptrend.
6) Buy pullbacks not runups. A buy should not be easy or exciting but difficult and somewhat scary. DO NOT CHASE
7) Place stop at 5% below the buy price. Do not remove
8) Sell 3 to 5 days after the stock price takes out its most recent 2 week high with at least 15% gains
9) Uptrends that are 12 weeks or more may be ripe for a correction. The first 2 pullbacks to the 50 day are usually safe.
Intermediate term uptrends and downtrends generally last from 8 to 16 weeks with 12 weeks being the norm.
10) Shorting is a viable strategy in downtrends for experienced traders only. In general, reverse the above rules
11) Tweet Mikey @themarketshadow with questions or ideas

Monday, May 6, 2013

Bonds/Utilities/Defensive Selling off tops

Money is coming out of the lead groups, the utilities, bonds, defensive issues and moving into the cyclical stocks.  Meanwhile, the market became more overbought. The Put/call ratio is now a .72/ .79 10 day, the put premium is .70 and .91 10 day.  The Mikey OB/OS is 144,119,151,162 for a total of 576.  That means that all time sectors are overbought. The VIX came in at 12.66 witch made the Mikey vix oscillator 1.09 again right on top. The CNN fear/greed came in at 74 and the % above 50 day was 67%.

Mikey


DJI Close 14968.89 -5.07
    DJI Trend Summary
    Long Term UP/ Intermediate UP/ Daily UP/Short Term up
    Hourly up 14777 5-4
    Daily Uptrend: 13412 on 1-2 (84 days)
    Intermediate Uptrend: at 13412 on 1-2( 84 days)
    Long Term Uptrend 11315 on 11-1-10  2 years + 6 months
    IBD  MARKET uptrend resumes 4-29 14818
    Current Trading range   14444 -15009
    Step Down trading Range 14050 - 14444
    Resistence: 15009
    Support 1 14434 
    Support 2 14050
    Support 3 13750

    Average watch
    50 Hour Ave: 14832 price below  
    20 Day Ave: 14738 Price above
    50 Day Ave: 14530 Price above 
    20 Week Ave: 14205 Price above
    50 Week Ave: 13573 Price above
    200 Week Ave: 11838 Price above

    NYSE A/D +609 NASDAQ A/D +483
    NYSE A/D line 99450 NH  NASDAQ A/D line -3263 NH
    Put/Call .81 10 day .82  Put Prem/Call Premium  .83 10 day .91
    % Stocks above 50 day average  67
    CNN  Fear/Greed Index 74 greed (100 Greed to 0 Fear)
    VIX 12.66 year range (27.73 to 11.05) Fear (25 high 11 low)

    Mikey total OB/OS Osilliator  Range (+550 to -550)  576
    Bulls 47.9  (58.8 to 21.3) Bears 18.8 (54.4 to 15.6)  Ratio 2.54
    Mutual Fund Pur/Redemp: 1.26 (.66 to 1.46) High public buy
    New Highs NYSE 318 NASDAQ 182
    New Lows  NYSE 11  NASDAQ 14


    Notable  trend changes


    Closing Prices
    US Stock

    DJI 14986.89 -5.07 DJT 6297.98 +79.08 SPX 1617.50 +3.08
    DJU 522.02 -7.28 Compx 3392.97 +14.34
    US Debt Markets
    US Gov: 3 mo .033% 2 yr .224% 5 yr .732% 10 yr 1.75% 30 yr  2.96%
    Mortgage Rates 30 year 3.43% 15 Yr 2.67%
    IEF(2-10 year) 107.98 -.10 TLT (US 20 yr) 120.60 -.33
    Muni Bonds 111.52 -.21  Cal Muni (NCA) 10.30 +.05
    LQD (Inv Grade Corp) 121.23 +.07 High Yield 96.01 +.05

    Commodities 
    CRB Commodities Index 290.17 +3.48
    Gold 1468 +3.80 Silver 23.96 -.06
    Copper 3.31 - Platinum 1507.70 +6.50
    Oil  96.16 +.55 Gasoline 2.87 +.05  Nat Gas 4.01 -.03

    Dollar Index 82.38 +.19
    US Dollar Long Term/ Intermediate Term / Daily Trend / Short term
     
    All Market Trends: 
     
    Commodities
    Gold: (GLD)    Long/ Intermediate   Daily / Short term
    Silver: (SLV)   Long  / Intermediate / Daily / Short term
    Copper:(JCC) Long / Intermediate / Daily  / Short term
    Oil: (USO)       Long / Intermediate / Daily/ Short term
    Gasoline (UGA) Long/ Intermediate / Daily/Short term
    Nat Gas:(UNG)Long Term/ Intermediate/ Daily/ Short term
    Commod (USCI) Long Term/ Intermediate / Daily / Short term
    Bond Markets
    US Bonds LT (TLT) Long Term/ Intermed  Daily   Short term
    US Corp BBB (LQD)  Long Term/ Intermed/ Daily  Short term 
    US Muni  (MUB)      Long Term Intermed/ Daily/ Short Trend
    High Yield  (HYG)   Long Term/ Intermed/ Daily/ Short term
    Utility stocks (XLU):Long / Intermed/ Daily  / Short term
    Stocks
    US ($DJI)      Long Term/ Intermed Term/ Daily Trend/  Short term
    Europe(IEV) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    China (FXI)    Long Term/ Intermed Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Brazil EWZ)  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    India  (PIN)   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Emerg Mkt(EEM) Long Term/ Intermed Term/ Daily Trend/Short term
    Japan (EWJ) Long Term/ Intermed Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term

    Stocks I like 
    Buy when Daily and Intermediate are green the short term turns green from
    red or price TRADES DOWN the 50 day average THE FIRST TIME
    Place stop @ -5% Sell 3 to 5 days after 20 day high or after stock double tops
    (These are not reccomendations as I am not an analyst or financial planner
     
    AAPL Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    ABX Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    AET Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    APA  Long Term/ Intermediate Term// Daily Trend  Short term
    APC  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    ATHN Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    AUY Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    AXP Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    BP  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    BWLD  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    CLNE Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    COG Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    COP Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/Short term
    COST Long Term/ Intermediate Term/  Daily Trend Short term
    CRM Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    DAL  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/  Daily Trend Short term 
    FB   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    FDX Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    GILD  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    GLW    Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    GMCR Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    HFC Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term 
    KORS Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    LCC  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    LNKD long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    MELI Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    NOV  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    ORB Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    PAA  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    PG  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    PPP   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    QCOM Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    RAX  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    SLB Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    WAG  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    WFM Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Z  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term

    Securities I like:  Long Term
SPXU (2X Short S & P) 4-14    26.48 Long / Int / Daily / Short
SJB (Short High Yield bonds) 4-14   30.92 Long / Int / Daily/  Short
SEF (Short Financials) 4-14  24.90             Long / Int / Daily/  Short
VIXY (Short term VIX futures) 4-14 9.91 Long / Int / Daily/  Short
UNG ( Gas ETF) 4-14   23.10                    Long / Int  /Daily/  Short

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