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Mikey's Short Term Trading Rules

1) Make up a list of stocks, commodities or ETF's to trade. This list should be names that have good earnings and high relative strength.
2) Monitor this list and throw out the weaker names
3) Buy only stocks or ETF's that are intermediate and daily up (green) and the market is Daily and intermediate term up (green)
4) Buy pullbacks on these stocks to the 20 and 50 day averages
Usually you get 4 to 6 20 day pullback buys and 2 or 3 50 day pullback buys in an intermediate term trend
5) More agressive traders can buy the 7 day average in the first 3 to 8 weeks of the uptrend.
6) Buy pullbacks not runups. A buy should not be easy or exciting but difficult and somewhat scary. DO NOT CHASE
7) Place stop at 5% below the buy price. Do not remove
8) Sell 3 to 5 days after the stock price takes out its most recent 2 week high with at least 15% gains
9) Uptrends that are 12 weeks or more may be ripe for a correction. The first 2 pullbacks to the 50 day are usually safe.
Intermediate term uptrends and downtrends generally last from 8 to 16 weeks with 12 weeks being the norm.
10) Shorting is a viable strategy in downtrends for experienced traders only. In general, reverse the above rules
11) Tweet Mikey @themarketshadow with questions or ideas

Saturday, May 11, 2013

Bonds and stocks part ways Dollar resumes uptrend

During the last five trading days, volume in put options has lagged volume in call options by 50.60% as investors make bullish bets in their portfolios. This is among the lowest levels of put buying seen during the last two years, indicating extreme greed on the part of investors.

Gold and commodities turned down Friday with the dollar's return to an intermediate term uptrend. All bets are off on the cyclicals and gold with the rally in the dollar.  The bonds also parted ways with the dollar resuming its intermediate term downtrend. 

Mikey


DJI Close 15105.12 +48.82
    DJI Trend Summary
    Long Term UP/ Intermediate UP/ Daily UP/Short Term up
    Hourly up 14777 5-4
    Daily Uptrend: 13412 on 1-2 (88 days)
    Intermediate Uptrend: at 13412 on 1-2( 88 days)
    Long Term Uptrend 11315 on 11-1-10  2 years + 6 months
    IBD  MARKET uptrend resumes 4-29 14818
    Current Trading range   14444 -15144
    Step Down trading Range 14050 - 14444
    Resistence: 15144
    Support 1 14444 
    Support 2 14050
    Support 3 13750

    Average watch
    50 Hour Ave: 14998 price below  
    20 Day Ave: 14794 Price above
    50 Day Ave: 14620 Price above 
    20 Week Ave: 14211 Price above
    50 Week Ave: 13515 Price above
    200 Week Ave: 11838 Price above

    NYSE A/D +817 NASDAQ A/D +815
    NYSE A/D line 101852 NASDAQ A/D line -1955 NH
    Put/Call .76 10 day .76  Put Prem/Call Premium  .71 10 day .78
    % Stocks above 50 day average  71
    CNN  Fear/Greed Index 81 greed (100 Greed to 0 Fear)
    VIX 12.66 year range (27.73 to 11.05) Fear (25 high 11 low)

    Mikey total OB/OS Osilliator  Range (+550 to -550)  509
    Bulls 52.1  (58.8 to 21.3) Bears 19.8 (54.4 to 15.6)  Ratio 2.54
    Mutual Fund Pur/Redemp: 1.26 (.66 to 1.46) High public buy
    New Highs NYSE 353 NASDAQ 205
    New Lows  NYSE 13  NASDAQ 26


    Notable  trend changes


    APA INTERM UP
    RAX INTERM DOWN
    Z AT 50 DAY
    US DOLLAR INTERM UP LONG TERM NEUTRAL
    Closing Prices
    US Stock
    DJI 15118.49 +35.87 DJT 6375.52 +36.53 SPX 1633.70 +7.03
    DJU 513.71 +1.02 Compx 3436.58 +27.41
    US Debt Markets
    US Gov: 3 mo .043% 2 yr .253% 5 yr .83% 10 yr 1.89% 30 yr  3.09%
    Mortgage Rates 30 year 3.43% 15 Yr 2.67%
    IEF(2-10 year) 107.33 -.61 TLT (US 20 yr) 118.45 -1.59
    Muni Bonds 110.77 -.42 Cal Muni (NCA) 10.34 +.03
    LQD (Inv Grade Corp) 120.77 -.13  High Yield 95.50 -.50
    Commodities 
    CRB Commodities Index 288.68 -2.77
    Gold 1436.60 -32.00 Silver 23.66 -.25
    Copper 3.35 +.01 Platinum 14.86 -30.50  
    Oil  96.04 -.35 Gasoline 2.86 -.02 Nat Gas 3.91 -.07

    Dollar Index 83.23 +.35
    US Dollar Long Term/ Intermediate Term / Daily Trend / Short term
     
    All Market Trends: 
     
    Commodities
    Gold: (GLD)    Long/ Intermediate   Daily / Short term
    Silver: (SLV)   Long  / Intermediate / Daily / Short term
    Copper:(JCC) Long / Intermediate / Daily  / Short term
    Oil: (USO)       Long / Intermediate / Daily/ Short term
    Gasoline (UGA) Long/ Intermediate / Daily/Short term
    Nat Gas:(UNG)Long Term/ Intermediate/ Daily/ Short term
    Commod (USCI) Long Term/ Intermediate / Daily / Short term
    Bond Markets
    US Bonds LT (TLT) Long Term/ Intermed  Daily   Short term
    US Corp BBB (LQD)  Long Term/ Intermed/ Daily  Short term 
    US Muni  (MUB)      Long Term Intermed/ Daily/ Short Trend
    High Yield  (HYG)   Long Term/ Intermed/ Daily/ Short term
    Utility stocks (XLU):Long / Intermed/ Daily  / Short term
    Stocks
    US ($DJI)      Long Term/ Intermed Term/ Daily Trend/  Short term
    Europe(IEV) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    China (FXI)    Long Term/ Intermed Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Brazil EWZ)  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    India  (PIN)   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Emerg Mkt(EEM) Long Term/ Intermed Term/ Daily Trend/Short term
    Japan (EWJ) Long Term/ Intermed Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term

    Stocks I like 
    Buy when Daily and Intermediate are green the short term turns green from
    red or price TRADES DOWN the 50 day average THE FIRST TIME
    Place stop @ -5% Sell 3 to 5 days after 20 day high or after stock double tops
    (These are not reccomendations as I am not an analyst or financial planner
     
    AAPL Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term

    AET Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    AGU Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    APA  Long Term/ Intermediate Term// Daily Trend  Short term
    APC  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    ATHN Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    AUY Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    AXP Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    BP  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    BWLD  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    CAT Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    CLNE Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    COG Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    COP Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/Short term
    COST Long Term/ Intermediate Term/  Daily Trend Short term
    CRM Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    DAL  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/  Daily Trend Short term 
    FB   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    FDX Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    GILD  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    GLW    Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    GMCR Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    HFC Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term 
    KORS Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    LCC  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    LNKD long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    MELI Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    NOV  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    ORB Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    PAA  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    PG  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    PPP   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    QCOM Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    RAX  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    SLB Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    WAG  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    WFM Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Z  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term

    Securities I like:  Long Term
SPXU (2X Short S & P) 4-14    26.48 Long / Int / Daily / Short
SJB (Short High Yield bonds) 4-14   30.92 Long / Int / Daily/  Short
SEF (Short Financials) 4-14  24.90             Long / Int / Daily/  Short
VIXY (Short term VIX futures) 4-14 9.91 Long / Int / Daily/  Short
UNG ( Gas ETF) 4-14   23.10                    Long / Int  /Daily/  Short

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