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Mikey's Short Term Trading Rules

1) Make up a list of stocks, commodities or ETF's to trade. This list should be names that have good earnings and high relative strength.
2) Monitor this list and throw out the weaker names
3) Buy only stocks or ETF's that are intermediate and daily up (green) and the market is Daily and intermediate term up (green)
4) Buy pullbacks on these stocks to the 20 and 50 day averages
Usually you get 4 to 6 20 day pullback buys and 2 or 3 50 day pullback buys in an intermediate term trend
5) More agressive traders can buy the 7 day average in the first 3 to 8 weeks of the uptrend.
6) Buy pullbacks not runups. A buy should not be easy or exciting but difficult and somewhat scary. DO NOT CHASE
7) Place stop at 5% below the buy price. Do not remove
8) Sell 3 to 5 days after the stock price takes out its most recent 2 week high with at least 15% gains
9) Uptrends that are 12 weeks or more may be ripe for a correction. The first 2 pullbacks to the 50 day are usually safe.
Intermediate term uptrends and downtrends generally last from 8 to 16 weeks with 12 weeks being the norm.
10) Shorting is a viable strategy in downtrends for experienced traders only. In general, reverse the above rules
11) Tweet Mikey @themarketshadow with questions or ideas

Wednesday, April 17, 2013

Weight of evidence suggests the the stock market has topped

The Transports and the NASDAQ both closed below their daily sell lines.  The NYSE had 72 new highs and 102 new lows the NASDAQ had 37 new highs and 81 new lows.
Volume has been heavy on the 2 recent sell offs indicating that money wants out. Tangible assets have been under pressure for the last 3 months.  The BRIC's are all in long term downtrends.  Disturbing news is coming out of China. Gold is in full retreat indicating that there is a liquidity problem and oil is breaking down with weak demand.  Copper is completing a massive head and shoulders top and nearing a 3 year low.  Strong economies have strong copper prices and oil demand.  The world economies are under siege and the stocks are showing it.  The DJI and its 30 big names are hiding the all of this as they hover around the highs.  IBD went to market in confirmed correction today and I agree. Something's very wrong but we have not been told yet.   The DJI is still above the 50 day average.  The chart below show the % of stocks abobe the 50 day average.  This will give a truer picture of what is happening

Mikey


    DJI Trend SummaryDJI Close 14618.58 -138.19
    Long Term UP/ Intermediate UP/ Daily UP/Short Term down
    Dollar Index82.71 +.42
    US Dollar Long Term/ Intermediate Term / Daily Trend / Short term
    Hourly down 14739 4-17
    Daily Uptrend: 13412 on 1-2 (73 days)
    Intermediate Uptrend: at 13412 on 1-2(73 days)
    Long Term Uptrend 11315 on 11-1-10  2 years + 5 months
    IBD  MARKET confirmed correction 4-17 14618
    Current Trading range   14539- 14826
    Step Down trading Range 14050- 14539
    Resistence: 14826
    Support 1 14539 
    Support 2 14344
    Support 3 14036

    Average watch
    50 Hour Ave: 14739 Price below
    20 Day Ave: 14622 Price at
    50 Day Ave: 14334 Price above 
    20 Week Ave: 13963 Price above
    50 Week Ave: 13379 Price above
    200 Week Ave: 11741 Price above

    NYSE A/D -1663 NASDAQ A/D -1532
    NYSE A/D line 90119 NASDAQ A/D line -8374
    Put/Call  1.21 10 day .97  Put Prem/Call Prem 1.04 10 day 1.00
    CNN  Fear/Greed Index 39 fear (100 Greed to 0 Fear)
    VIX 16.51 1 year range (27.73 to 11.05) Fear (25 high 11 low)
    Bulls 47.4  (58.8 to 21.3) Bears 20.6 (54.4 to 15.6)  Ratio 2.30
    Mutial Fund Pur/Redemp: 1.25 (.66 to 1.46) High public buy
    New Highs NYSE 72 NASDAQ 37
    New Lows  NYSE 102   NASDAQ 81


    Notable  trend changes




    Closing Prices
    US Stock

    DJI 14618.59 -138.19 DJT 5940.40 -91.94 SPX 1552.01 -22.56
    DJU 519.44 Compx 3204.67 -59.96
    US Debt Markets
    US Gov: 3 mo .06% 2 yr .234% 5 yr .689% 10 yr 1.69% 30 yr  2.87%
    Mortgage Rates 30 year 3.54% 15 Yr 2.77%
    IEF(2-10 year) 108.60 +.22 TLT (US 20 yr)122.79 +.81
    Muni Bonds 111.45 +.20 Cal Muni (NCA) 10.10 -
    LQD (Inv Grade Corp) 121.42 +.17 High Yield 94.53 -.27

    Commodities 
    CRB Commodities Index 280.88 -2.35
    Gold 1382.70  Silver 23.21 -.32
    Copper 3.19 -.12 Platinum 1424.80 -71.10
    Oil 88.71 -2.58 Gasoline 2.76 -.04 Nat Gas 4.14 -.08

    Dollar Index 82.71 +.42 
    US Dollar Long Term/ Intermediate Term / Daily Trend / Short term
     
    All Market Trends: 
     
    Commodities
    Gold: (GLD)    Long/ Intermediate   Daily / Short term
    Silver: (SLV)   Long  / Intermediate / Daily / Short term
    Copper:(JCC) Long / Intermediate / Daily  / Short term
    Oil: (USO)       Long / Intermediate / Daily/ Short term
    Gasoline (UGA) Long/ Intermediate / Daily/Short term
    Nat Gas:(UNG)Long Term/ Intermediate/ Daily/ Short term
    Commod (USCI) Long Term/ Intermediate / Daily / Short term
    Bond Markets
    US Bonds LT (TLT) Long Term/ Intermed  Daily   Short term
    US Corp BBB (LQD)  Long Term/ Intermed/ Daily  Short term 
    US Muni  (MUB)      Long Term Intermed/  Daily/ Short Trend
    High Yield  (HYG)   Long Term/ Intermed/ Daily/ Short term
    Utility stocks (XLU):Long / Intermed/ Daily  / Short term
    Stocks
    US ($DJI)      Long Term/ Intermed Term/ Daily Trend/  Short term
    Europe(IEV) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    China (FXI)    Long Term/ Intermed Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Brazil EWZ)  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    India  (PIN)   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Emerg Mkt(EEM) Long Term/ Intermed Term/ Daily Trend/Short term
    Japan (EWJ) Long Term/ Intermed Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term

    Stocks I like 
    Buy when Daily and Intermediate are green the short term turns green from
    red or price TRADES DOWN the 50 day average THE FIRST TIME
    Place stop @ -5% Sell 3 to 5 days after 20 day high or after stock double tops
    (These are not reccomendations as I am not an analyst or financial planner
     
    AAPL Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    ABX Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    APA  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    APC  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    ATHN Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    AUY Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    AXP Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    BP  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    BWLD  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    CLNE Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    COG Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    COP Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/Short term
    CRM Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    DAL    Long Term/ Intermediate Term//  Daily Trend Short term 
    FB   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    FDX Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    GG  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    GLW      Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    GMCR Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    HFC Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term 
    KORS Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    LCC  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    LNKD  L Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    MELI Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    NOV  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    ORB Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    PAA  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    PG  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    PPP   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    QCOM Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    RAX  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    SLB Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    WAG  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    WFM Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Z  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term

    Securities I like:  Long Term
SPXU (2X Short S & P) 4-14    26.48 Long  Int  Daily  Short
SJB (Short High Yield bonds) 4-14   30.92 Long  Int  Daily  Short
SEF (Short Financials) 4-14  24.90             Long  Int  Daily  Short
VIXY (Short term VIX futures) 4-14 9.91 Long  Int  Daily  Short
UNG ( Gas ETF) 4-14   23.10                    Long  Int  Daily  Short
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