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Mikey's Short Term Trading Rules

1) Make up a list of stocks, commodities or ETF's to trade. This list should be names that have good earnings and high relative strength.
2) Monitor this list and throw out the weaker names
3) Buy only stocks or ETF's that are intermediate and daily up (green) and the market is Daily and intermediate term up (green)
4) Buy pullbacks on these stocks to the 20 and 50 day averages
Usually you get 4 to 6 20 day pullback buys and 2 or 3 50 day pullback buys in an intermediate term trend
5) More agressive traders can buy the 7 day average in the first 3 to 8 weeks of the uptrend.
6) Buy pullbacks not runups. A buy should not be easy or exciting but difficult and somewhat scary. DO NOT CHASE
7) Place stop at 5% below the buy price. Do not remove
8) Sell 3 to 5 days after the stock price takes out its most recent 2 week high with at least 15% gains
9) Uptrends that are 12 weeks or more may be ripe for a correction. The first 2 pullbacks to the 50 day are usually safe.
Intermediate term uptrends and downtrends generally last from 8 to 16 weeks with 12 weeks being the norm.
10) Shorting is a viable strategy in downtrends for experienced traders only. In general, reverse the above rules
11) Tweet Mikey @themarketshadow with questions or ideas

Friday, April 5, 2013

Stocks get hit DJI holds

Many stocks are crumbing but the DJI is holding on to the short term neutral pattern.

Mikey

    DJI Trend SummaryDJI Close 14565.25 -40.86
    Long Term UP/ Intermediate UP/ Daily UP/Short Term Neutral
    Dollar Index 82.57 -.16
    US Dollar Long Term/ Intermediate Term / Daily Trend / Short term
    Hourly neut 14556  4-3
    Daily Uptrend: 13412 on 1-2 (65 days)
    Intermediate Uptrend: at 13412 on 1-2(65 days)
    Long Term Uptrend 11315 on 11-1-10  2 years + 4 months
    IBD Market market under pressure14253 3-5
    Current Trading range   13700- 14585
    Step Down trading Range 12943- 13625
    Resistence: 14585
    Support 1 14379 
    Support 2 14100
    Support 3 13755

    Average watch
    50 Hour Ave: 14568 Price at
    20 Day Ave: 14513 Price above
    50 Day Ave: 14201 Price above 
    20 Week Ave: 13780 Price above
    50 Week Ave: 13312 Price above
    200 Week Ave: 11680 Price above

    NYSE A/D -137 NASDAQ A/D -454
    NYSE A/D line  88255 NASDAQ A/D line -7648
    Put/Call  .90 10 day .93 Put Prem/Call Prem  1.06 10 day .95
    Mikey 3 -50 Mikey 7 -46 Mikey 20  +25 Mikey 50  +93
    Mikey Fear 104 (90 Low fear 30 High Fear)  VIX 14.21
    Bulls 52 (58.8 to 21.3)   Bears 19.4 (54.4 to 15.6)  Ratio 2.68
    Mutial Fund Purchase/Redemption: 1.25 (.66 to 1.46) 
    New Highs NYSE 107 NASDAQ 46
    New Lows  NYSE 42   NASDAQ 44

    Noteable  trend changes

    Bonds int trend up
    Nat Gas new high
    Closing Prices

    US Stock

    DJI 14565.25 -40.86 DJT 6037.36 +27.70 SPX 1553.28 -6.70
    DJU 514.73 +2.69 Compx 3203.86 -21.12
    US Debt Markets
    US Gov rates: 6 mo .10% 2 yr .246% 5 yr .68% 10 yr 1.69% 30 yr  2.86%
    Mortgage Rates 30 year 3.59% 15 Yr 2.80%
    IEF(2-10 year) 108.39 +.24 TLT (US 20 yr) 122.77 +2.38
    Muni Bonds 110.97 +.33 Cal Muni (NCA)10.16 +.12
    LQD (Investmnt Grade Corp) 120.84 +.37 High Yield 94.23 +.30

    Commodities 
    CRB Commodities Index 288.28 -.19
    Gold  1575.90 +23.50  Silver 27.22 +.45
    Copper 3.34 - Platinum 1535.50 +17.70
    Oil 92.70 -.56 Gasoline 2.86 -.03 Nat Gas 4.12 +.18

    Dollar Index 82.57 -.16
    US Dollar Long Term/ Intermediate Term / Daily Trend / Short term

    All Market Trends: 
     
    Commodities
    Gold: (GLD)    Long/ Intermediate   Daily / Short term
    Silver: (SLV)   Long  / Intermediate / Daily / Short term
    Copper:(JCC) Long / Intermediate / Daily  / Short term
    Oil: (USO)       Long / Intermediate / Daily/ Short term
    Gasoline (UGA) Long/ Intermediate / Daily /  Short term
    Nat Gas:(UNG)Long Term/ Intermediate / Daily  / Short term
    Commod (USCI) Long Term/ Intermediate / Daily  / Short term
    Bond Markets
    US Bonds LT (TLT) Long Term/ Intermed  Daily   Short term
    US Corp BBB (LQD)  Long Term/ Intermed/ Daily  Short term 
    US Muni  (MUB)      Long Term Intermed/  Daily    Short Trend
    High Yield  (HYG)   Long Term/ Intermed/ Daily/ Short term
    Utility stocks (XLU):Long / Intermed/ Daily  / Short term
    Stocks
    US ($DJI)         Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/  Short term
    Europe(IEV) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    China (FXI)    Long Term/ Intermediate Term Daily Trend/  Short term
    Brazil EWZ)  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    India  (PIN) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Emerg Mkt(EEM) Long Term/ Intermed Term/ Daily Trend/Short term
    Japan (EWJ)  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
     

    Stocks I like 

    Buy when Daily and Intermediate are green the short term turns green from
    red or price TRADES DOWN the 50 day average THE FIRST TIME
    Place stop @ -5% Sell 3 to 5 days after 20 day high or after stock double tops
    (These are not reccomendations as I am not an analyst or financial planner
     
    AAPL Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    APA  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    APC  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    ATHN Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    AUY Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    AXP Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    BWP  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    BWLD  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    CLNE Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    COG Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    CRM Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    DAL    Long Term/ Intermediate Term//  Daily Trend Short term
    DVN  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    FB   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    GG  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    GLW      Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    GMCR Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    HBIO  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    HFC Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    IMAX Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    KORS Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    JCP   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    LCC  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    LNKD  L Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    MELI Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    NOV  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    ORB Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    PAA  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    PPP   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    QCOM Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    RAX  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    SODA Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    SONC Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term

    WAG  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    XCO Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short Term
    Z  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term

    (2x)  SHORT  ETF'S
    DXD  Long Term/ Intermediate / Daily Trend/ Short term
    SPXU Long Term/ Intermediate / Daily Trend/ Short term
    DUG  Long Term/ Intermediate  Daily Trend/ Short term
    SMN Long Term/ Intermediate  Daily Trend/ Short term
    SKF Long Term/ Intermediate /Daily Trend/ Short term
    FXP Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term


     
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