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Mikey's Short Term Trading Rules

1) Make up a list of stocks, commodities or ETF's to trade. This list should be names that have good earnings and high relative strength.
2) Monitor this list and throw out the weaker names
3) Buy only stocks or ETF's that are intermediate and daily up (green) and the market is Daily and intermediate term up (green)
4) Buy pullbacks on these stocks to the 20 and 50 day averages
Usually you get 4 to 6 20 day pullback buys and 2 or 3 50 day pullback buys in an intermediate term trend
5) More agressive traders can buy the 7 day average in the first 3 to 8 weeks of the uptrend.
6) Buy pullbacks not runups. A buy should not be easy or exciting but difficult and somewhat scary. DO NOT CHASE
7) Place stop at 5% below the buy price. Do not remove
8) Sell 3 to 5 days after the stock price takes out its most recent 2 week high with at least 15% gains
9) Uptrends that are 12 weeks or more may be ripe for a correction. The first 2 pullbacks to the 50 day are usually safe.
Intermediate term uptrends and downtrends generally last from 8 to 16 weeks with 12 weeks being the norm.
10) Shorting is a viable strategy in downtrends for experienced traders only. In general, reverse the above rules
11) Tweet Mikey @themarketshadow with questions or ideas

Tuesday, April 9, 2013

DJI week to week double top

The DJI is back to pre jobs number highs today. The number to watch is 14343 a close below would signal a short term top.  The dollar has returned to its August 15 area.  The commodities and foreign markets have responded as they normally have and have pulled back to the same levels. In addition, the bond market has rallied back to those levels.   The DJI has not.  I believe that this will also happen to the DJI>  My expectations are for the DJI to return to those levels which would be 13311 or the 200 day. 

Initiating Fear/Greed index 100 is extreme greed 0 is extreme fear starting at 54 neutral. Removing Mikey fear index.

Mikey

    DJI Trend SummaryDJI Close 14673.46 +59.98
    Long Term UP/ Intermediate UP/ Daily UP/Short Term up
    Dollar Index 82.36 -.18
    US Dollar Long Term/ Intermediate Term / Daily Trend / Short term
    Hourly up 14572 4-8
    Daily Uptrend: 13412 on 1-2 (67 days)
    Intermediate Uptrend: at 13412 on 1-2(67 days)
    Long Term Uptrend 11315 on 11-1-10  2 years + 4 months
    IBD Market market under pressure14253 3-5
    Current Trading range   13700- 14585
    Step Down trading Range 12943- 13625
    Resistence: 14585
    Support 1 14379 
    Support 2 14100
    Support 3 13755

    Average watch
    50 Hour Ave:14586 Price above
    20 Day Ave: 14520 Price above
    50 Day Ave: 14230 Price above 
    20 Week Ave: 13858 Price above
    50 Week Ave: 13338 Price above
    200 Week Ave: 11708 Price above

    NYSE A/D +505 NASDAQ A/D -241
    NYSE A/D line 90513 NASDAQ A/D line -7174
    Put/Call  .80 10 day .91  Put Prem/Call Prem 1.02 10 day .98
    CNN  Fear/Greed Index 54 Neutral (100 Greed to 0 Fear)
    VIX 12.84 1 year range (27.73 to 11.05) Fear (25 high 11 low)
    Bulls 52 (58.8 to 21.3) Bears 19.4 (54.4 to 15.6)  Ratio 2.68
    Mutial Fund Pur/Redemp: 1.25 (.66 to 1.46) High public buy
    New Highs NYSE 224 NASDAQ 91
    New Lows  NYSE 20   NASDAQ 28

    Noteable  trend changes

    Gold, Silver and Commodities short term up
    Closing Prices

    US Stock

    DJI 14673.46 +59.98 DJT 6072.86 -1.80 SPX 1568.61
    DJU517.23 -.92 Compx3237.86 +15.61
    US Debt Markets
    US Gov: 6 mo .10% 2 yr .234% 5 yr .70% 10 yr 1.75% 30 yr  2.93%
    Mortgage Rates 30 year 3.54% 15 Yr 2.77%
    IEF(2-10 year) 108.18 -.04 TLT (US 20 yr)120.93
    Muni Bonds 110.88 -.24  Cal Muni (NCA) 10.08 +.02
    LQD (Inv Grade Corp) 120.93 -.02  High Yield 94.42 +.30

    Commodities 
    CRB Commodities Index 290.98 +1.81
    Gold  1586.70 +14.20 Silver 27.88 +.74
    Copper3.44 +.07 Platinum 1553.10 +16.10
    Oil 94.20 +.84 Gasoline 2.94 +.03  Nat Gas 4.02 -.06

    Dollar Index 82.36 -.18
    US Dollar Long Term/ Intermediate Term / Daily Trend / Short term

    All Market Trends: 
     
    Commodities
    Gold: (GLD)    Long/ Intermediate   Daily / Short term
    Silver: (SLV)   Long  / Intermediate / Daily / Short term
    Copper:(JCC) Long / Intermediate / Daily  / Short term
    Oil: (USO)       Long / Intermediate / Daily/ Short term
    Gasoline (UGA) Long/ Intermediate / Daily /  Short term
    Nat Gas:(UNG)Long Term/ Intermediate / Daily  / Short term
    Commod (USCI) Long Term/ Intermediate / Daily  / Short term
    Bond Markets
    US Bonds LT (TLT) Long Term/ Intermed  Daily   Short term
    US Corp BBB (LQD)  Long Term/ Intermed/ Daily  Short term 
    US Muni  (MUB)      Long Term Intermed/  Daily    Short Trend
    High Yield  (HYG)   Long Term/ Intermed/ Daily/ Short term
    Utility stocks (XLU):Long / Intermed/ Daily  / Short term
    Stocks
    US ($DJI)      Long Term/ Intermed Term/ Daily Trend/  Short term
    Europe(IEV) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    China (FXI)    Long Term/ Intermed Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Brazil EWZ)  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    India  (PIN)   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Emerg Mkt(EEM) Long Term/ Intermed Term/ Daily Trend/Short term
    Japan (EWJ) Long Term/ Intermed Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
     


    Stocks I like 
    Buy when Daily and Intermediate are green the short term turns green from
    red or price TRADES DOWN the 50 day average THE FIRST TIME
    Place stop @ -5% Sell 3 to 5 days after 20 day high or after stock double tops
    (These are not reccomendations as I am not an analyst or financial planner
     
    AAPL Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    ABX Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    APA  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    APC  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    ATHN Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    AUY Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    AXP Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    BP  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    BWLD  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    CLNE Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    COG Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    CRM Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    DAL    Long Term/ Intermediate Term//  Daily Trend Short term 
    FB   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    FDX Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    GG  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    GLW      Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    GMCR Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    HFC Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term 
    KORS Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    LCC  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    LNKD  L Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    MELI Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    NOV  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    ORB Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    PAA  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    PG  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    PPP   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    QCOM Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    RAX  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    SLB Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    WAG  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    WFM Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Z  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term

    (2x)  SHORT  ETF'S
    DXD  Long Term/ Intermediate / Daily Trend/ Short term
    SPXU Long Term/ Intermediate / Daily Trend/ Short term
    DUG  Long Term/ Intermediate  Daily Trend/ Short term
    SMN Long Term/ Intermediate  Daily Trend/ Short term
    SKF Long Term/ Intermediate /Daily Trend/ Short term
    FXP Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term


     
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