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Mikey's Short Term Trading Rules

1) Make up a list of stocks, commodities or ETF's to trade. This list should be names that have good earnings and high relative strength.
2) Monitor this list and throw out the weaker names
3) Buy only stocks or ETF's that are intermediate and daily up (green) and the market is Daily and intermediate term up (green)
4) Buy pullbacks on these stocks to the 20 and 50 day averages
Usually you get 4 to 6 20 day pullback buys and 2 or 3 50 day pullback buys in an intermediate term trend
5) More agressive traders can buy the 7 day average in the first 3 to 8 weeks of the uptrend.
6) Buy pullbacks not runups. A buy should not be easy or exciting but difficult and somewhat scary. DO NOT CHASE
7) Place stop at 5% below the buy price. Do not remove
8) Sell 3 to 5 days after the stock price takes out its most recent 2 week high with at least 15% gains
9) Uptrends that are 12 weeks or more may be ripe for a correction. The first 2 pullbacks to the 50 day are usually safe.
Intermediate term uptrends and downtrends generally last from 8 to 16 weeks with 12 weeks being the norm.
10) Shorting is a viable strategy in downtrends for experienced traders only. In general, reverse the above rules
11) Tweet Mikey @themarketshadow with questions or ideas

Thursday, March 7, 2013

Sailing along at the all time highs

Well IBD did go to market in confirmed uptrend with the new high in the market. The trend remains up for what ever reason.  We do not question the trend we go with it and this latest one is now 44 days old.  It started Jan 2 at 13412 and is now up close to 1000 points.  I am now posting stocks I like section at the end of this blog.  I would only own these stocks if the stocks are intermediate and daily green. The best time for me to pick them up is on a shot term sell off in a market that is in an uptrend.  What I do is wait for these stocks to sell off and the short term turns red.  The return of the short term back to green (usually it takes 2 greens) is the buy.  I hold them until they break above the 20 day high and sell 2 to 4 days after they do.  I then wait for the next pullback.  I must say that the market trend must also be in gear on the upside.

PS  The bond market is now getting hit and it looks like the commodities market is due for a rally. The Mikey 7 day is at 131 and that is overbought.

Mikey

    DJI Trend SummaryDJI Close 14329.49 +33.25
    Long Term UP/ Intermediate UP/ Daily UP/Short Term up
    Dollar Index  82.12 -.11
    US Dollar Long Term/ Intermediate Term up/ Daily Trend up/ Short term up 
    Hourly up 13965  2-27
    Daily Uptrend: 13412 on 1-2 (41 days)
    Intermediate Uptrend: at 13412 on 1-2(41 days)
    Long Term Uptrend 11315 on 11-1-10  2 years + 3 months
    IBD Market market in correctiom 13789 2-25
    Current Trading range   13625 - 14354
    Step Down trading Range 12943- 13625
    Resistence: 14196 From Oct 2007
    Support 1 13755
    Support 2 13444

    Average watch
    50 Hour Ave: 14158 Price above
    20 Day Ave: 14029 Price above
    50 Day Ave: 13755 Price above   (no long positions if this line is red)
    20 Week Ave:13444 Price above
    50 Week Ave: 13444 Price above
    200 Week Ave 11557 Price above
    Last high 3-7 14354 Last Low  2-26 13784 
    Group Trend changes of note:
    Bonds down

    MACD 
    Short term (50 hour) up
    MACD 50.20
    Daily trend (50 day) Uptrend 44 days SIGNAL 1-2
    MACD Daily +135.94 Positive cross 3-6
    Intermediate trend (50 week) Uptrend (44 days).signal 12-31 13104
    MACD Weekly (+305.83) Positive Cross 1-7
    Long term trend (50 week) Uptrend  (27 months)...signal 12/1/10 11577
    MACD Monthly (+669.17) Positive Cross 1/8/12. 
    Volume Readings
    Volume (Millions) NYSE 3489  NASDAQ 1638
    Advance/Decline NYSE +466 NASDAQ +530
    Mikey NYSE A/D line +87089 nh  NASDAQ A/D line -6564 nh
    Trader Psychology
    Put/Call day .71 10 day .94  Put Prem/Call Prem .97 day 1.07
    Mikey 3  +89 Mikey 7 +131 Mikey 20  +81 Mikey 50  +171
    Mikey Fear 108 (90 Low fear 30 High Fear)  VIX 13.06
    Bulls 44.2  Bears 21.1  Ratio 2.21
    Mutial Fund Purchase/redemption: 1.20
    New Highs NYSE 262 NASDAQ 16594
    New Lows  NYSE 7  NASDAQ 13
    Closing Prices

    US Stock

    DJI 14329.49 +33.22 DJT 6081.42 +29.51  SPX 1544.26 +2.89
    DJU 486.89 -1.31 Compx 3232.09 +9.73
    US Debt Markets
    US Gov rates: 6 mo .12% 2 yr .257% 5 yr .86% 10 yr 2.00% 30 yr 3.20%
    Mortgage Rates 30 year 3.61 % 15 Yr 2.88%
    IEF (2-10 year) 106.16 -.43 TLT (US 20 yr) 116.00 -.86
    Muni Bonds 110.92 -.44 Cal Muni (NCA) 10.43 -.10
    LQD (Investment Grade Corp) 119.20 -.39 High Yield 93.98 +.12
    Commodities 
    CRB Commodities Index 290.72 +.36 
    Gold  1575.10 +2.70 Silver 28.81 +.31
    Copper3.52 +.02  Platinum 1595.10 +28.10
    Oil 91.56 +1.44 RBOB 3.12 +.02 Nat Gas 3.58 +.05
    US Dollar Index
    Dollar Index 82.11-.14
    US Dollar Long Term/ Intermediate Term / Daily Trend / Short term

    All Market Trends: 
     
    Commodities
    Gold: (GLD)    LongTerm/ Intermediate Term  Daily Trend/ Short term
    Silver: (SLV)   Long Term / Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Copper:(JCC) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Oil: (USO)       Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Gasoline (UGA) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/  Short term
    Nat Gas:(UNG)Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Commod (USCI) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Bond Markets
    US Bonds LT (TLT) Long Term/ Intermed Term/ Daily Trend/  Short term
    US Corp BBB (LQD)  Long Term/ IntermedTerm/ Daily Trend/ Short term 
    US Muni  (MUB)      Long Term IntermedTerm/ Daily Trend   Short Trend
    High Yield  (HYG)   Long Term/ IntermedTerm/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Utility stocks (XLU):Long Term/ IntermedTerm/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Stocks
    US ($DJI)     Long Term    / Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/  Short term
    Europe(IEV) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    China (FXI)    Long Term/ Intermediate Term Daily Trend/  Short term
    Brazil EWZ)  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    India  (PIN) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Emerg Mkt(EEM) Long Term/ Intermed Term/ Daily Trend/Short term
    Japan (EWJ)  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Stock Groups (updated 2-26
    Utilities (XLU)  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Water (FIW) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Health (XLV) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Food/Bev (PBJ) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Home Build(XHB) Long Term/ Intermed Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Retail (XRT) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Staples (XLP) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend Short term/
    Transports (IYT) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short Term
    Global Auto (CARZ)  Long Term/ Intermed term/ Daily Trend/ Short Term
    Shipping (SEA) Long Term/ Intermed Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Aerospace ( ITA) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Energy (XLE)  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Oil Expl (IEO) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Nat Gas (FCG) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short Term
    Finance (XLF)  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Brokers (IAI) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Insurance (IAK) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Reg Bank (IAT) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Cloud (SKYY) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Tech (XLK)  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Gold Miners (GDX) Long Term/ Intermed Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Materials (XLB) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Reits (IYR) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Communication(IYZ) Long Term/ Intermed Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Pharma (XPH) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Biotech (BBH) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term

    Stocks I like 

    Buy when Daily and Intermediate are green the short term turns green from
    red or price hits the 50 day average
    Place stop @ -5% Sell 3 to 5 days after 20 day high or after stock double tops
    (These are not reccomendations as I am not an analyst or financial planner
     
    FB     Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    LNKDLong Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    MELI  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term /
    AAPL Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    IMAX Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    GMCR Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    LNKD Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    KORS Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    DOG   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    CRM  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    RAX  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    OPEN Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    SODALong Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Z       Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    EXELLong Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    UNG Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    FCG Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    COG Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    APA  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    IMAXLong Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    QCOM Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    GLWLong Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    QIHU Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    SONC Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
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