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Mikey's Short Term Trading Rules

1) Make up a list of stocks, commodities or ETF's to trade. This list should be names that have good earnings and high relative strength.
2) Monitor this list and throw out the weaker names
3) Buy only stocks or ETF's that are intermediate and daily up (green) and the market is Daily and intermediate term up (green)
4) Buy pullbacks on these stocks to the 20 and 50 day averages
Usually you get 4 to 6 20 day pullback buys and 2 or 3 50 day pullback buys in an intermediate term trend
5) More agressive traders can buy the 7 day average in the first 3 to 8 weeks of the uptrend.
6) Buy pullbacks not runups. A buy should not be easy or exciting but difficult and somewhat scary. DO NOT CHASE
7) Place stop at 5% below the buy price. Do not remove
8) Sell 3 to 5 days after the stock price takes out its most recent 2 week high with at least 15% gains
9) Uptrends that are 12 weeks or more may be ripe for a correction. The first 2 pullbacks to the 50 day are usually safe.
Intermediate term uptrends and downtrends generally last from 8 to 16 weeks with 12 weeks being the norm.
10) Shorting is a viable strategy in downtrends for experienced traders only. In general, reverse the above rules
11) Tweet Mikey @themarketshadow with questions or ideas

Monday, March 25, 2013

DJI waffles over and under the short term trend line

The dollar is very close to a long term uptrend.  That is showing up all over the equity and asset markets.  Notice that the foreign markets are much weaker than the US and commodities as a group and in a downtrend in every time frame. I have a daily buy signal on the SMN a double short basic Materials ETF.   The  DJI is bouncing back and forth above and below the short term up/down line. A move is coming and when it does it will be convincing. 

Mikey

    DJI Trend SummaryDJI Close 14447.75 -64.28
    Long Term UP/ Intermediate UP/ Daily UP/Short Term neut
    Dollar Index 82.53 -.37
    US Dollar Long Term/ Intermediate Term / Daily Trend / Short term
    Hourly up 14485  3-22
    Daily Uptrend: 13412 on 1-2 (56 days)
    Intermediate Uptrend: at 13412 on 1-2(56 days)
    Long Term Uptrend 11315 on 11-1-10  2 years + 4 months
    IBD Market market in uptrend 14253 3-5
    Current Trading range   13700- 14539
    Step Down trading Range 12943- 13625
    Resistence: 14539
    Support 1 14379 
    Support 2 14100
    Support 3 13755

    Average watch
    50 Hour Ave: 14479 Price below
    20 Day Ave:14339 Price above
    50 Day Ave: 14045 Price above   (no long positions if this line is red)
    20 Week Ave:13672 Price above
    50 Week Ave: 13276 Price above
    200 Week Ave:11649 Price above

    NYSE A/D -542 NASDAQ A/D -101
    NYSE A/D line  88772  NASDAQ A/D line -5548
    Put/Call  .93  10 day .84  Put Prem/Call Prem  .92 10 day .92
    Mikey 3  -28 Mikey 7 -14 Mikey 20  +103 Mikey 50  +132
    Mikey Fear 105 (90 Low fear 30 High Fear)  VIX 13.74
    Bulls 47.4   Bears 18.6   Ratio 2.55
    Mutial Fund Purchase/redemption: 1.20
    New Highs NYSE 322 NASDAQ 185
    New Lows  NYSE 25   NASDAQ 24

    Noteable  trend changes
    FB INT DOWN
    SMN DAILY UP

    Closing Prices

    US Stock

    DJI 14447.75 -64.28 DJT 6134.48 -44.78 SPX 1551,69 -5.20
    DJU 496.66 -.70 Compx 3235.30 -9.70
    US Debt Markets
    US Gov rates: 6 mo .11% 2 yr .249% 5 yr .792% 10 yr 1.91% 30 yr  3.15%
    Mortgage Rates 30 year 3.73% 15 Yr 2.89%
    IEF(2-10 year) 106.99 +.10 TLT (US 20 yr) 117.27 -.06
    Muni Bonds 109.91 -.19 Cal Muni (NCA)10.05 -.08
    LQD (Investmnt Grade Corp) 119.47 - High Yield 94.17 -.14

    Commodities 
    CRB Commodities Index 294.70 -
    Gold  1605.50 -1.60  Silver 28.81 +.12
    Copper 3.45 -.01 Platinum 1582.90 -4.80
    Oil 94.81 +1.10 Gasoline 3.06 - Nat Gas 3.86 -.07

    Dollar Index 83.00 +.47
    US Dollar Long Term/ Intermediate Term / Daily Trend / Short term

    All Market Trends: 
     
    Commodities
    Gold: (GLD)    LongTerm/ Intermediate Term  Daily Trend/ Short term
    Silver: (SLV)   Long Term / Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Copper:(JCC) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Oil: (USO)       Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Gasoline (UGA) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/  Short term
    Nat Gas:(UNG)Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Commod (USCI) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Bond Markets
    US Bonds LT (TLT) Long Term/ Intermed Term/ Daily Trend/  Short term
    US Corp BBB (LQD)  Long Term/ IntermedTerm/ Daily Trend/ Short term 
    US Muni  (MUB)      Long Term IntermedTerm/ Daily Trend   Short Trend
    High Yield  (HYG)   Long Term/ IntermedTerm/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Utility stocks (XLU):Long Term/ IntermedTerm/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Stocks
    US ($DJI)     Long Term    / Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/  Short term
    Europe(IEV) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    China (FXI)    Long Term/ Intermediate Term Daily Trend/  Short term
    Brazil EWZ)  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    India  (PIN) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Emerg Mkt(EEM) Long Term/ Intermed Term/ Daily Trend/Short term
    Japan (EWJ)  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
     

    Stocks I like 

    Buy when Daily and Intermediate are green the short term turns green from
    red or price hits the 50 day average
    Place stop @ -5% Sell 3 to 5 days after 20 day high or after stock double tops
    (These are not reccomendations as I am not an analyst or financial planner
     
    AAPL Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    APA  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term /
    APC  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    ATHN Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    AUY Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    BWP  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    BWLD  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    CLNE Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    COG Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    CRM Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    DAL    Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    DVN  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    FB   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    GLW      Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    GMCR Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    HBIO  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    HFC Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    IMAX Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    KORS Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    JCP   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    LNKD  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    MELI Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    NOV Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    ORB Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    PAA  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    PPP  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    QCOM Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    RAX Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    SODA Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    SONC Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    ULTI Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    WAG  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    XCO Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short Term
    Z  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    ETF'S
    FCG  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    SMN  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    DOG Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    DXD  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    DUG  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    UNG  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
     
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