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Mikey's Short Term Trading Rules

1) Make up a list of stocks, commodities or ETF's to trade. This list should be names that have good earnings and high relative strength.
2) Monitor this list and throw out the weaker names
3) Buy only stocks or ETF's that are intermediate and daily up (green) and the market is Daily and intermediate term up (green)
4) Buy pullbacks on these stocks to the 20 and 50 day averages
Usually you get 4 to 6 20 day pullback buys and 2 or 3 50 day pullback buys in an intermediate term trend
5) More agressive traders can buy the 7 day average in the first 3 to 8 weeks of the uptrend.
6) Buy pullbacks not runups. A buy should not be easy or exciting but difficult and somewhat scary. DO NOT CHASE
7) Place stop at 5% below the buy price. Do not remove
8) Sell 3 to 5 days after the stock price takes out its most recent 2 week high with at least 15% gains
9) Uptrends that are 12 weeks or more may be ripe for a correction. The first 2 pullbacks to the 50 day are usually safe.
Intermediate term uptrends and downtrends generally last from 8 to 16 weeks with 12 weeks being the norm.
10) Shorting is a viable strategy in downtrends for experienced traders only. In general, reverse the above rules
11) Tweet Mikey @themarketshadow with questions or ideas

Tuesday, March 12, 2013

First net decline day in 12 days

Net declines were 525 today which was the first net decline day in the last 12 trading days. Put/call ratios stayed low at .75 and put premiums were also low at .84.  The Mikey fear was 111 near its all time lows and volume was low.  Gold and commodities turned higher with most turning up short term.  The numbers say that a sell of would not be a surprise right now. 

Mikey

    DJI Trend SummaryDJI Close 14450.06 +2.77
    Long Term UP/ Intermediate UP/ Daily UP/Short Term up
    Dollar Index 82.54 -.13
    US Dollar Long Term/ Intermediate Term up/ Daily Trend up/ Short term up 
    Hourly up 13965  2-27
    Daily Uptrend: 13412 on 1-2 (47 days)
    Intermediate Uptrend: at 13412 on 1-2(47 days)
    Long Term Uptrend 11315 on 11-1-10  2 years + 3 months
    IBD Market market in uptrend 14253 3-5
    Current Trading range   13625 - 14476
    Step Down trading Range 12943- 13625
    Resistence: 14476
    Support 1 13755
    Support 2 13444

    Average watch
    50 Hour Ave: 14307 Price above
    20 Day Ave: 14100 Price above
    50 Day Ave: 13834 Price above   (no long positions if this line is red)
    20 Week Ave: 13516 Price above
    50 Week Ave: 13214 Price above
    200 Week Ave 11568 Price above
    Last high 3-12 14476 Last Low  2-26 13784 
    Group or Stock Trend changes of note:
    Bonds down
    Nat Gas Interm up
    CLNE int up
    KORS Daily donw

    MACD 
    Short term (50 hour) up
    MACD 44.34
    Daily trend (50 day) Uptrend 48 days SIGNAL 1-2
    MACD Daily +172.18 Positive cross 3-6
    Intermediate trend (50 week) Uptrend (48 days).signal 12-31 13104
    MACD Weekly (+341.49) Positive Cross 1-7
    Long term trend (50 week) Uptrend  (27 months)...signal 12/1/10 11577
    MACD Monthly (+677.00) Positive Cross 1/8/12. 
    Volume Readings
    Volume (Millions) NYSE 3173 NASDAQ 1630
    Advance/Decline NYSE -525 NASDAQ -432
    Mikey NYSE A/D line +87833 NASDAQ A/D line -6050 NH
    Trader Psychology
    Put/Call day .75 10 day .86  Put Prem/Call Prem .84 day 1.01
    Mikey 3  +30 Mikey 7 +95 Mikey 20  +83 Mikey 50  +196
    Mikey Fear 111 (90 Low fear 30 High Fear)  VIX 12.27
    Bulls 44.2  Bears 21.1  Ratio 2.21
    Mutial Fund Purchase/redemption: 1.20
    New Highs NYSE 245 NASDAQ 161
    New Lows  NYSE 21  NASDAQ 15

    Closing Prices

    US Stock

    DJI 14450.06 +2.77 DJT 6132.85 -18.27  SPX 1552.48 -3.74
    DJU 6132.85 -18.27 Compx 3242.32 -10.55
    US Debt Markets
    US Gov rates: 6 mo .12% 2 yr .261% 5 yr .902% 10 yr 2.07% 30 yr  3.27%
    Mortgage Rates 30 year 3.61 % 15 Yr 2.88%
    IEF (2-10 year) 106.01 +.31 TLT (US 20 yr) 116.02 +1.16
    Muni Bonds 110.12 +.09 Cal Muni (NCA) 10.43 +.01
    LQD (Investment Grade Corp) 119.10 +.24 High Yield 94.01 -.12
    Commodities 
    CRB Commodities Index 295.7 +.97  
    Gold  1595 +7.00 Silver 29.16 +.30
    Copper 3.55 +.03  Platinum 1596 -6.20
    Oil 92.54 +.48 RBOB 3.15 - Nat Gas 3.64 -
    US Dollar Index
    Dollar Index 82.54 -.13
    US Dollar Long Term/ Intermediate Term / Daily Trend / Short term

    All Market Trends: 
     
    Commodities
    Gold: (GLD)    LongTerm/ Intermediate Term  Daily Trend/ Short term
    Silver: (SLV)   Long Term / Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Copper:(JCC) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Oil: (USO)       Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Gasoline (UGA) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/  Short term
    Nat Gas:(UNG)Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Commod (USCI) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Bond Markets
    US Bonds LT (TLT) Long Term/ Intermed Term/ Daily Trend/  Short term
    US Corp BBB (LQD)  Long Term/ IntermedTerm/ Daily Trend/ Short term 
    US Muni  (MUB)      Long Term IntermedTerm/ Daily Trend   Short Trend
    High Yield  (HYG)   Long Term/ IntermedTerm/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Utility stocks (XLU):Long Term/ IntermedTerm/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Stocks
    US ($DJI)     Long Term    / Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/  Short term
    Europe(IEV) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    China (FXI)    Long Term/ Intermediate Term Daily Trend/  Short term
    Brazil EWZ)  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    India  (PIN) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Emerg Mkt(EEM) Long Term/ Intermed Term/ Daily Trend/Short term
    Japan (EWJ)  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Stock Groups (updated 2-26
    Utilities (XLU)  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Water (FIW) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Health (XLV) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Food/Bev (PBJ) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Home Build(XHB) Long Term/ Intermed Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Retail (XRT) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Staples (XLP) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend Short term/
    Transports (IYT) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short Term
    Global Auto (CARZ)  Long Term/ Intermed term/ Daily Trend/ Short Term
    Shipping (SEA) Long Term/ Intermed Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Aerospace ( ITA) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Energy (XLE)  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Oil Expl (IEO) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Nat Gas (FCG) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short Term
    Finance (XLF)  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Brokers (IAI) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Insurance (IAK) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Reg Bank (IAT) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Cloud (SKYY) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Tech (XLK)  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Gold Miners (GDX) Long Term/ Intermed Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Materials (XLB) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Reits (IYR) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Communication(IYZ) Long Term/ Intermed Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Pharma (XPH) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Biotech (BBH) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term

    Stocks I like 

    Buy when Daily and Intermediate are green the short term turns green from
    red or price hits the 50 day average
    Place stop @ -5% Sell 3 to 5 days after 20 day high or after stock double tops
    (These are not reccomendations as I am not an analyst or financial planner
     
    AAPL Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    APA  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term /
    ATHN Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    AUY Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    BWP  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    CLNE Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    COG Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    CRM Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    DOG   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    DVN  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    EXEL Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    FB   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    FCG   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    GG Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    GLW      Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    GMCR Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    HBIO  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    IMAX Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    KORS Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    JMBA Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    JCP   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    LNKD  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    MELI Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    MNTA Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    OPEN Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    ORB Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    PAA  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    PPP  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    QCOM Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    QIHULong Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    RAX Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    SODA Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    SONC Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    ULTI Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    UNG Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    XCO Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short
    YNDX Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Z  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
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