Posting Times

Posts will be between 8:30 PM to 10:00 PM PST
Mikey's Short Term Trading Rules

1) Make up a list of stocks, commodities or ETF's to trade. This list should be names that have good earnings and high relative strength.
2) Monitor this list and throw out the weaker names
3) Buy only stocks or ETF's that are intermediate and daily up (green) and the market is Daily and intermediate term up (green)
4) Buy pullbacks on these stocks to the 20 and 50 day averages
Usually you get 4 to 6 20 day pullback buys and 2 or 3 50 day pullback buys in an intermediate term trend
5) More agressive traders can buy the 7 day average in the first 3 to 8 weeks of the uptrend.
6) Buy pullbacks not runups. A buy should not be easy or exciting but difficult and somewhat scary. DO NOT CHASE
7) Place stop at 5% below the buy price. Do not remove
8) Sell 3 to 5 days after the stock price takes out its most recent 2 week high with at least 15% gains
9) Uptrends that are 12 weeks or more may be ripe for a correction. The first 2 pullbacks to the 50 day are usually safe.
Intermediate term uptrends and downtrends generally last from 8 to 16 weeks with 12 weeks being the norm.
10) Shorting is a viable strategy in downtrends for experienced traders only. In general, reverse the above rules
11) Tweet Mikey @themarketshadow with questions or ideas

Friday, February 22, 2013

Backtracking

Tops have many false starts.  The short term usually breaks then rallies back.  The 20 day then breaks and rallies back  the 50 day then breaks and rallies back.  The 200 day breaks and rallies back.  In each case,  the lows reverse quickly and strand the sellers making them instant losers.  This is a conditioning process the takes the will out of sellers  

This recent break has just had the first short term break and is rallying back today.  The intermediate term and the daily are still up.  At some point the daily will break and  there will be a rally off of that break.  That will be when the game begins on the downside.

 This is the nature of the market you may not like it and you would not be alone. I call it backtracking.  The point at which the seller make their move and sell will be covered by a rally at a future point.  That is the point at which that sell looks and feels like a bad sell.  If you want to short, you need to wait until the market rallies back to the last sell point and then confirms the prevailing trend.

Mikey

    DJI Trend Summary
    Long Term UP/ Intermediate UP/ Daily UP/Short Term up
    Dollar Index 81.54 unch
    US Dollar Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term

    DJI Close 14000.57 +119.95

    Hourly up 14000 2-22
    Daily Uptrend: 13412 on 1-2 (37 days)
    Intermediate Uptrend: at 13412 on 1-2(37 days)
    Long Term Uptrend 11315 on 11-1-10  2 years + 2 months
    IBD Market market under pressure 13927 2-20
    Current Trading range   13043 - 14038
    Step Down trading Range 12471- 13043
    Resistence: 14196 From Oct 2007
    Support 1 13600
    Support 2 13360
    Support 3 12880
    Average watch
    50 Hour Ave: 13970 Price above
    20 Day Ave: 13953 Price below
    50 Day Ave: 13600 Price above   (no long positions if this line is red)
    20 Week Ave: 13359 Price above
    50 Week Ave: 13146 Price above
    200 Week Ave 11499 Price above
    Last high 2-12 14038 Last Low 11-15 12471 
    Group Trend changes of note:

    MACD 
    Short term (50 hour) up
    MACD -2.44
    Daily trend (50 day) Uptrend 37 days SIGNAL 1-2
    MACD Daily +114.22 negative cross 2-7
    Intermediate trend (50 week) Uptrend (37 days).signal 12-31 13104
    MACD Weekly (+114.99) Positive Cross 1-7
    Long term trend (50 week) Uptrend  (26 months)...signal 12/1/10 11577
    MACD Monthly (+607.66) Positive Cross 1/8/12. 
    Volume Readings
    Volume (Millions) NYSE 3339 NASDAQ 1546
    Advance/Decline NYSE =1535 NASDAQ =1108
    Mikey NYSE A/D line +83235 NASDAQ A/D line -8553
    Trader Psychology
    Put/Call day .97  10 day .82  Put Prem/Call Prem 1.13 10 day .98
    Mikey 3  -49 Mikey 7 +11  Mikey 20  +48 Mikey 50  +154
    Mikey Fear 103 (90 Low fear 30 High Fear)  VIX 14.17
    Bulls 48.4  Bears 22.1  Ratio 2.19
    Mutial Fund Purchase/redemption: 1.20
    New Highs NYSE 125  NASDAQ 98
    New Lows  NYSE 19  NASDAQ 28
     
    Closing Prices

    US Stocks
    DJIA 14000.57 +119.95 S/P 500 1515.60 +13.18 NASDAQ 3161.82 +30.33
    DJT 5943.89 +68.33 DJU 477.91 +5.35
    US Debt Markets
    US Gov rates: 6 mo .14% 2 yr .27% 5 yr .842% 10 yr 1.96% 30 yr  3.15%
    Mortgage Rates 30 year 3.61 % 15 Yr 2.90%
    IEF (US 7-10 yr) 106.28 +.18 TLT (US 20 yr) 116.95 +.68
    MUB(NatMuni) 111.59 -.03   Cal Muni(NCA) 10.51 +.07
    LQD (Investment Grade Corp) 119.63 -.06 High Yield 93.93 +.41
    Commodities 
    CRB Commodities Index 293.52 +.39
    Gold  1572.80 -5.80 Silver 28.46 -.24
    Copper 3.53 -.02 Platinum 1607.40 -12.60
    Oil 93.13 +.29   RBOB 3.08 +.05 Nat Gas 3..29 +.04
    US Dollar Index
    Dollar Index 81.54 unch
    US Dollar Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term

    All Market Trends:
    Short term trading rules:
    Initiate long positions when Intermediate and Daily Trends are green AND the Short term turns green from yellow or red  The best signal occurs on the second green signal. The first will usually reverse to red then buy the second green
    Take profits 3-5 days after 20 day high
    Enter  sell stop below the 20 day low or at 7% loss
    Commodities
    Gold: (GLD)    LongTerm/ Intermediate Term  Daily Trend/ Short term
    Silver: (SLV)   Long Term / Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Copper:(JCC) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Oil: (USO)       Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Gasoline (UGA) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/  Short term
    Nat Gas:(UNG)Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Commod (USCI) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Bond Markets
    US Bonds LT (TLT) Long Term/ Intermed Term/ Daily Trend/  Short term
    US Corp BBB (LQD)  Long Term/ IntermedTerm/ Daily Trend/ Short term 
    US Muni  (MUB)      Long Term IntermedTerm/ Daily Trend   Short Trend
    High Yield  (HYG)   Long Term/ IntermedTerm/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Utility stocks (XLU):Long Term/ IntermedTerm/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Stocks
    US ($DJI)     Long Term    / Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/  Short term
    Europe(IEV) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    China (FXI)    Long Term/ Intermediate Term Daily Trend/  Short term
    Brazil EWZ)  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    India  (PIN) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Emerg Mkt(EEM) Long Term/ Intermed Term/ Daily Trend/Short term
    Japan (EWJ)  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Stock Groups (updated 2-22
    Utilities (XLU)  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Water (FIW) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Health (XLV) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Food/Bev (PBJ) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Home Build(XHB) Long Term/ Intermed Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Retail (XRT) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Staples (XLP) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Transports (IYT) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short Term
    Global Auto (CARZ)  Long Term/ Intermed term/ Daily Trend/ Short Term
    Shipping (SEA) Long Term/ Intermed Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Aerospace ( ITA) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Energy (XLE)  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Oil Expl (IEO) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Nat Gas (FCG) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short
    Finance (XLF)  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Brokers (IAI) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Insurance (IAK) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Reg Bank (IAT) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Cloud (SKYY) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Tech (XLK)  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Gold Miners (GDX) Long Term/ Intermed Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Materials (XLB) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Reits (IYR) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Communication(IYZ) Long Term/ Intermed Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Pharma (XPH) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Biotech (BBH) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term 
    Selected Stocks (Updated 2-22)
    BRK.B Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    AEM Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    FCX  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    SLW Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    AGU Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    AAPLLong Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    BBRY Long Term/ Intermediate Term/Daily Trend/ Short term
    BIDU Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    QCOM Long Term/ Intermediate Term/Daily Trend/ Short term
    CRUS Long Term/ Intermediate Term/Daily Trend/ Short term
    FB    Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    LNKD Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term 
    MCD Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    YUM Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    SONCLong Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    BWLDLong Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    TGT  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    WMT  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    COST Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    WFMLong Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    AMZN  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    NKE  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    DECK   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    FDX   Long Term/Intermediate Term/Daily Trend Short term
    CVX Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    COG  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    COP  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    FSLR  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    HFC  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    APA Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    SLB Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    CLNE   Long term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    CLR  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/Short term
    KMI Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/Short term
    LNG Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/Short term
    LEN  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    CAT   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    DAL Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    LCC Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    JPM  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    BAC Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    GS Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    V Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    IBM  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    CSCO Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    RAX Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    ORCL  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    CRM  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    PFE Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    CI Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    WLPLong Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    BA Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    LMT Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    ADM Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    DUKLong Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    D  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term

       


       
     
Posted by at

No comments:

Post a Comment

Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom)