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Mikey's Short Term Trading Rules

1) Make up a list of stocks, commodities or ETF's to trade. This list should be names that have good earnings and high relative strength.
2) Monitor this list and throw out the weaker names
3) Buy only stocks or ETF's that are intermediate and daily up (green) and the market is Daily and intermediate term up (green)
4) Buy pullbacks on these stocks to the 20 and 50 day averages
Usually you get 4 to 6 20 day pullback buys and 2 or 3 50 day pullback buys in an intermediate term trend
5) More agressive traders can buy the 7 day average in the first 3 to 8 weeks of the uptrend.
6) Buy pullbacks not runups. A buy should not be easy or exciting but difficult and somewhat scary. DO NOT CHASE
7) Place stop at 5% below the buy price. Do not remove
8) Sell 3 to 5 days after the stock price takes out its most recent 2 week high with at least 15% gains
9) Uptrends that are 12 weeks or more may be ripe for a correction. The first 2 pullbacks to the 50 day are usually safe.
Intermediate term uptrends and downtrends generally last from 8 to 16 weeks with 12 weeks being the norm.
10) Shorting is a viable strategy in downtrends for experienced traders only. In general, reverse the above rules
11) Tweet Mikey @themarketshadow with questions or ideas

Monday, February 11, 2013

This pause brought to you by the stronger dollar

The chart below is the US dollar index.   Notice the market stalled when the dollar bottomed.  You can talk earnings, value, whatever, but the dollar is the driver.  The Fed has chosen to stop the madness at least for now.

Mikey



    DJI Trend Summary
    Long Term UP/ Intermediate UP/ Daily UP/Short Term Neutral
    DJI Close 13971.24 -21.73

    Hourly neutral 13942 2-7 ()
    Daily Uptrend: 13412 on 1-2 (26 days)
    Intermediate Uptrend: at 13412 on 1-2(26 days)
    Long Term Uptrend 11315 on 11-1-10  2 years + 2 months
    IBD Market in confirmed uptrend 13104 12-31
    Current Trading range   13043 - 14019
    Step Down trading Range 12471- 13043
    Resistence: 14196 From Oct 2007
    Support 1 13600
    Support 2 13360
    Support 3 12880
    Average watch
    50 Hour Ave: 13957 Price above
    20 Day Ave: 13819 Price above
    50 Day Ave: 13452 Price above   (no long positions if this line is red)
    20 Week Ave: 13339 Price above
    50 Week Ave: 13124 Price above
    200 Week Ave 11410 Price above
    Last high 2-2 14019  Last Low 11-15 12471 
    Group Trend changes of note:
    Gold to intermediate term down
    MACD 
    Short term (50 hour) neutral)
    MACD +4.56
    Daily trend (50 day) Uptrend 27 days 1-2
    MACD Daily +173.05 negative cross 2-7
    Intermediate trend (50 week) Uptrend (27 days).signal 12-31 13104
    MACD Weekly (+247.92) Positive Cross 1-7
    Long term trend (50 week) Uptrend  (26 months)...signal 12/1/10 11577
    MACD Monthly (+606.36) Positive Cross 1/8/12. 
    Volume Readings
    Volume (Millions) NYSE 2637  NASDAQ 1532
    Advance/Decline NYSE -293 NASDAQ -55
    Mikey NYSE A/D line +81992 NASDAQ A/D line -9038
    Trader Psychology
    Put/Call day .88  10 day .84  Put Prem/Call Prem 1.02 10 day .97
    Mikey 3  +13 Mikey 7 +61 Mikey 20  +90  Mikey 50  +160
    Mikey Fear 108 (90 Low fear 30 High Fear)  VIX 12.94
    Bulls 54.7  Bears 21.1  Ratio 2.59 (high for this move)
    New Highs NYSE 209  NASDAQ 150
    New Lows  NYSE 16 NASDAQ 18
     
    Closing Prices

    US Stocks
    DJIA 13971.24 -21.73  S/P 500 1517.01 -.92 NASDAQ 3192.00 -1.87
    DJT 5909.15 -2.18  DJU 474.83 +.37
    US Debt Markets
    US Gov rates: 6 mo .11% 2 yr ,258% 5 yr .844 10 yr 1.97% 30 yr  3.18%
    Mortgage Rates 30 year 3.61 % 15 Yr 2.90%
    IEF (US 7-10 yr) 106.14 -.13 TLT (US 20 yr) 117.01 -.11
    MUB(NatMuni) 111.73 -.31 Cal Muni(NCA) 10.48 -.07
    LQD (Investment Grade Corp) 119.04 -.07   High Yield 93.13 +.13
    Commodities 
    CRB Commodities Index 300.71 -.35
    Gold  1649.10 -17.80 Silver 30.91 -.53
    Copper 3.72 -.04 Platinum 1696.10 -17.80
    Oil 97.03 +1.31 RBOB 3.02-.04  Nat Gas 3.28 +.01
    US Dollar Index
    Dollar Index 80.29 -.02
    US Dollar Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term

    All Market Trends:
    Short term trading rules:
    Initiate long positions when Intermediate and Daily Trends are green AND the Short term turns green from yellow or red  The best signal occurs on the second green signal. The first will usually reverse to red then buy the second green
    Take profits 3-5 days after 20 day high
    Enter  sell stop below the 20 day low or at 7% loss
    Commodities
    Gold: (GLD)    LongTerm/ Intermediate Term  Daily Trend/ Short term
    Silver: (SLV)   Long Term / Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Copper:(JCC) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Oil: (USO)       Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Gasoline (UGA) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/  Short term
    Nat Gas:(UNG)Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Commod (USCI) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Bond Markets
    US Bonds LT (TLT) Long Term/ Intermed Term/ Daily Trend/  Short term
    US Corp BBB (LQD)  Long Term/ IntermedTerm/ Daily Trend/ Short term 
    US Muni  (MUB)      Long Term IntermedTerm/ Daily Trend   Short Trend
    High Yield  (HYG)   Long Term/ IntermedTerm/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Utility stocks (XLU):Long Term/ IntermedTerm/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Stocks
    US ($DJI)     Long Term    / Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/  Short term
    Europe(IEV) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    China (FXI)    Long Term/ Intermediate Term Daily Trend/  Short term
    Brazil EWZ)  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    India  (PIN) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Emerg Mkt(EEM) Long Term/ Intermed Term/ Daily Trend/Short term
    Japan (EWJ)  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Stock Groups (updated 2-8
    Utilities (XLU)  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Water (FIW) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Health (XLV) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Food/Bev (PBJ) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Home Build(XHB) Long Term/ Intermed Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Retail (XRT) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Staples (XLP) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Transports (IYT) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short Term
    Global Auto (CARZ)  Long Term/ Intermed term/ Daily Trend/ Short Term
    Shipping (SEA) Long Term/ Intermed Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Aerospace ( ITA) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Energy (XLE)  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Oil Expl (IEO) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Nat Gas (FCG) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short Term
    Finance (XLF)  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Brokers (IAI) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Insurance (IAK) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Reg Bank (IAT) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Cloud (SKYY) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Tech (XLK)  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Gold Miners (GDX) Long Term/ Intermed Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Materials (XLB) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Reits (IYR) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Communication(IYZ) Long Term/ Intermed Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Pharma (XPH) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Biotech (BBH) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term 
    Selected Stocks (Updated 2-8)
    BRK.B Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    AEM Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    FCX  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    SLW Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    AAPLLong Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    BBRY Long Term/ Intermediate Term/Daily Trend/ Short term
    BIDU Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    QCOM Long Term/ Intermediate Term/Daily Trend/ Short term
    CRUS Long Term/ Intermediate Term/Daily Trend/ Short term
    FB    Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    MCD Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    YUM Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    SONCLong Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    BWLDLong Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    TGT  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    WMT  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    COST Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    WFMLong Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    AMZN  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    NKE  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    DECK   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    FDX   Long Term/Intermediate Term/Daily Trend Short term
    CVX Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    COG  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    COP  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    FSLR  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    HFC  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    APA Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    SLB Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
     
    CLNE   Long term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    CLR  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/Short term
    KMI Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/Short term
    LNG Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/Short term
    LEN  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    CAT   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    DAL Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    LCC Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    JPM  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    BAC Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    GS Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    V Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    IBM  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    CSCO Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    RAX Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    ORCL  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    CRM  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    PFE Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    CI Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    WLPLong Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term

    BA Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    LMT Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    AGU  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    ADM Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    DUKLong Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    D  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term


       


       
     
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