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Mikey's Short Term Trading Rules

1) Make up a list of stocks, commodities or ETF's to trade. This list should be names that have good earnings and high relative strength.
2) Monitor this list and throw out the weaker names
3) Buy only stocks or ETF's that are intermediate and daily up (green) and the market is Daily and intermediate term up (green)
4) Buy pullbacks on these stocks to the 20 and 50 day averages
Usually you get 4 to 6 20 day pullback buys and 2 or 3 50 day pullback buys in an intermediate term trend
5) More agressive traders can buy the 7 day average in the first 3 to 8 weeks of the uptrend.
6) Buy pullbacks not runups. A buy should not be easy or exciting but difficult and somewhat scary. DO NOT CHASE
7) Place stop at 5% below the buy price. Do not remove
8) Sell 3 to 5 days after the stock price takes out its most recent 2 week high with at least 15% gains
9) Uptrends that are 12 weeks or more may be ripe for a correction. The first 2 pullbacks to the 50 day are usually safe.
Intermediate term uptrends and downtrends generally last from 8 to 16 weeks with 12 weeks being the norm.
10) Shorting is a viable strategy in downtrends for experienced traders only. In general, reverse the above rules
11) Tweet Mikey @themarketshadow with questions or ideas

Tuesday, February 5, 2013

The Bicycle is shaking

Many years I have looked for tops and bottoms and have tried to trade against the trend.  These tops and bottoms are very painful to go against.  I have leaned a few things about them however.  The last move is a study relentless move and when you get near to the top or bottom the market spikes up and down and this is what is called  the bicycle is shaking.  You get up 100 one day and down 100 the next and there is no follow through.  Whipsaws are the most common thing is these kinds of markets.  The trend will dip and break support and then recover.  You will swear the thing has topped or bottomed and it bounces right back.  Keep locked in on the group trends and individual stocks and when the top sets in you will see it.
 

Mikey
    DJI Trend Summary
    Long Term UP/ Intermediate UP/ Daily UP/Short Term up
    DJI Close 13979.20 +99.22

    Hourly Uptrend 13919 2-4 (6 hrs)
    Daily Uptrend: 13412 on 1-2 (23 days)
    Intermediate Uptrend: at 13412 on 1-2(23 days)
    Long Term Uptrend 11315 on 11-1-10  2 years + 2 months
    IBD Market in confirmed uptrend 13104 12-31
    Current Trading range   13043 - 14019
    Step Down trading Range 12471- 13043
    Resistence: 14196 From Oct 2007
    Support 1 13600
    Support 2 13360
    Support 3 12880
    Average watch
    50 Hour Ave: 13934 Price above
    20 Day Ave: 13708 Price above
    50 Day Ave: 13371 Price above   (no long positions if this line is red)
    20 Week Ave: 13311 Price above
    50 Week Ave: 13104 Price above
    200 Week Ave 11410 Price above
    Last high 2-2 14019  Last Low 11-15 12471 
    Group Trend changes of note:
    Tech group to all green
    Nat Gas group daily and short term both up

    MACD 
    Short term (50 hour) Uptrend  6 Hours)
    MACD +18.97
    Daily trend (50 day) Uptrend 24 days 1-2
    MACD Daily +189.81 Positive cross 1-3
    Intermediate trend (50 week) Uptrend (24 days).signal 12-31 13104
    MACD Weekly (+227.87) Positive Cross 1-7
    Long term trend (50 week) Uptrend  (26 months)...signal 12/1/10 11577
    MACD Monthly (+606.09) Positive Cross 1/8/12. 
    Volume Readings
    Volume (Millions) NYSE 3527  NASDAQ 2087
    Advance/Decline NYSE +1370  NASDAQ +1123
    Mikey NYSE A/D line +81129  new high  NASDAQ A/D line -9297
    Trader Psychology
    Put/Call day .89  10 day .84  Put Prem/Call Prem 1.02 90 10 day .915
    Mikey 3  +50  Mikey 7 +14 Mikey 20  +108  Mikey 50  +174
    Mikey Fear 105 (90 Low fear 30 High Fear)  VIX 13.72
    Bulls 54.3  Bears 22.3  Ratio 2.43
    New Highs NYSE 273  NASDAQ 144
    New Lows  NYSE 16 NASDAQ  8
     
    Closing Prices

    US Stocks
    DJIA 13979.20 +99.22  S/P 500 1511.29 +15.58 NASDAQ 3171.58 +40.41
    DJT 5884.39 +64.08 DJU472.52 +1.16
    US Debt Markets
    US Gov rates: 6 mo .11% 2 yr ,266% 5 yr .87 10 yr 2.01% 30 yr  3.22%
    Mortgage Rates 30 year 3.59 % 15 Yr 2.91%
    IEF (US 7-10 yr) 105.80 -.40 TLT (US 20 yr) 116.04 -.98
    MUB(NatMuni) 111.84 -.06 Cal Muni(NCA) 10.48 +.05
    LQD (Investment Grade Corp) 118.90 -.23 High Yield 9330 +.21
    Commodities 
    CRB Commodities Index 304.14 +1.23
    Gold  1673.60 -1.80 Silver 31.87 +.15
    Copper 3.77 +.01 Platinum 1707.20 + 9.10
    Oil 96.64 +.47 RBOB 3.04 +.03  Nat Gas 3.40 +.09
    US Dollar Index
    Dollar Index 79.54 -.03
    US Dollar Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term

    All Market Trends:
    Short term trading rules:
    Initiate long positions when Intermediate and Daily Trends are green AND the Short term turns green from yellow or red  The best signal occurs on the second green signal. The first will usually reverse to red then buy the second green
    Take profits 3-5 days after 20 day high
    Enter  sell stop below the 20 day low or at 7% loss
    Commodities
    Gold: (GLD)    LongTerm/ Intermediate Term  Daily Trend/ Short term
    Silver: (SLV)   Long Term / Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Copper:(JCC) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Oil: (USO)       Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Gasoline (UGA) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/  Short term
    Nat Gas:(UNG)Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Commod (USCI) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Bond Markets
    US Bonds LT (TLT) Long Term/ Intermed Term/ Daily Trend/  Short term
    US Corp BBB (LQD)  Long Term/ IntermedTerm/ Daily Trend/ Short term 
    US Muni  (MUB)      Long Term IntermedTerm/ Daily Trend   Short Trend
    High Yield  (HYG)   Long Term/ IntermedTerm/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Utility stocks (XLU):Long Term/ IntermedTerm/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Stocks
    US ($DJI)     Long Term    / Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/  Short term
    Europe(IEV) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    China (FXI)    Long Term/ Intermediate Term Daily Trend/  Short term
    Brazil EWZ)  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    India  (PIN) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Emerg Mkt(EEM) Long Term/ Intermed Term/ Daily Trend/Short term
    Japan (EWJ)  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Stock Groups (updated 2-5
    Utilities (XLU)  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Water (FIW) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Health (XLV) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Food/Bev (PBJ) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Home Build(XHB) Long Term/ Intermed Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Retail (XRT) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Staples (XLP) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Transports (IYT) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short Term
    Global Auto (CARZ)  Long Term/ Intermed term/ Daily Trend/ Short Term
    Shipping (SEA) Long Term/ Intermed Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Aerospace ( ITA) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Energy (XLE)  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Oil Expl (IEO) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Nat Gas (FCG) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short Term
    Finance (XLF)  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Brokers (IAI) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Insurance (IAK) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Reg Bank (IAT) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Cloud (SKYY) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Tech (XLK)  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Gold Miners (GDX) Long Term/ Intermed Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Materials (XLB) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Reits (IYR) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Communication(IYZ) Long Term/ Intermed Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Pharma (XPH) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Biotech (BBH) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term 
    Selected Stocks (Updated 2-5)
    BRK.B Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    AEM Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    FCX  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    SLW Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    AAPLLong Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    BBRY Long Term/ Intermediate Term/Daily Trend/ Short term
    BIDU Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    QCOM Long Term/ Intermediate Term/Daily Trend/ Short term
    CRUS Long Term/ Intermediate Term/Daily Trend/ Short term
    FB    Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    MCD Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    YUM Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    TGT  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    WMT  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    COST Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    AMZN  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    NKE  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    DECK   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    FDX   Long Term/Intermediate Term/Daily Trend Short term
    CVX Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    COG  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    COP  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    XOM  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    HFC  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    APA Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    SLB Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    NOV  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    CLNE   Long term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    CLR  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/Short term
    LEN  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    CAT   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    DAL Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    LCC Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    JPM  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    BAC Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    GS Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    V Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    IBM  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    CSCO Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    RAX Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    ORCL  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    CRM  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    PFE Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    CI Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    CVS Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    BA Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    LMT Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    ATK  Long Term/ Interm Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    AGU Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    ADM Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    DUKLong Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    D  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    NATURAL GASPLAYS
    APC Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    EQT Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    COG Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    NBL Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    XEC Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    ECA Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    DVN Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    CHK Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    BUFFETT STOCKS
    JNJ, PG, DVA, IBM, USB,COP,WMT, AXP.CVS,NOV
       


       
     
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