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Mikey's Short Term Trading Rules

1) Make up a list of stocks, commodities or ETF's to trade. This list should be names that have good earnings and high relative strength.
2) Monitor this list and throw out the weaker names
3) Buy only stocks or ETF's that are intermediate and daily up (green) and the market is Daily and intermediate term up (green)
4) Buy pullbacks on these stocks to the 20 and 50 day averages
Usually you get 4 to 6 20 day pullback buys and 2 or 3 50 day pullback buys in an intermediate term trend
5) More agressive traders can buy the 7 day average in the first 3 to 8 weeks of the uptrend.
6) Buy pullbacks not runups. A buy should not be easy or exciting but difficult and somewhat scary. DO NOT CHASE
7) Place stop at 5% below the buy price. Do not remove
8) Sell 3 to 5 days after the stock price takes out its most recent 2 week high with at least 15% gains
9) Uptrends that are 12 weeks or more may be ripe for a correction. The first 2 pullbacks to the 50 day are usually safe.
Intermediate term uptrends and downtrends generally last from 8 to 16 weeks with 12 weeks being the norm.
10) Shorting is a viable strategy in downtrends for experienced traders only. In general, reverse the above rules
11) Tweet Mikey @themarketshadow with questions or ideas

Tuesday, February 26, 2013

Backtracking short term downtrend



Mikey

    DJI Trend Summary
    Long Term UP/ Intermediate UP/ Daily UP/Short Term down
    Dollar Index 81.94 +.16
    US Dollar Long Term/ Intermediate Term up/ Daily Trend up/ Short term up

    DJI Close 13900.13 +115.96

    Hourly down 13965  2-25
    Daily Uptrend: 13412 on 1-2 (39 days)
    Intermediate Uptrend: at 13412 on 1-2(39 days)
    Long Term Uptrend 11315 on 11-1-10  2 years + 2 months
    IBD Market market in correctiom 13789 2-25
    Current Trading range   13043 - 14038
    Step Down trading Range 12471- 13043
    Resistence: 14196 From Oct 2007
    Support 1 13600
    Support 2 13360
    Support 3 12880
    Average watch
    50 Hour Ave: 13952 Price below
    20 Day Ave: 13948 Price below
    50 Day Ave: 13624 Price above   (no long positions if this line is red)
    20 Week Ave: 13387 Price above
    50 Week Ave: 13624 Price above
    200 Week Ave 11527 Price above
    Last high 2-12 14038 Last Low 11-15 12471 
    Group Trend changes of note:

    MACD 
    Short term (50 hour) up
    MACD -21.62
    Daily trend (50 day) Uptrend 39 days SIGNAL 1-2
    MACD Daily +84.70 negative cross 2-7
    Intermediate trend (50 week) Uptrend (39 days).signal 12-31 13104
    MACD Weekly (+264.36) Positive Cross 1-7
    Long term trend (50 week) Uptrend  (26 months)...signal 12/1/10 11577
    MACD Monthly (+599.80) Positive Cross 1/8/12. 
    Volume Readings
    Volume (Millions) NYSE 3862 NASDAQ 1810
    Advance/Decline NYSE +981 NASDAQ +519
    Mikey NYSE A/D line +82511 NASDAQ A/D line -9610
    Trader Psychology
    Put/Call day 1.02 10 day .86  Put Prem/Call Prem 1.06 10 day .99
    Mikey 3  +32 Mikey 7 -26 Mikey 20  +33 Mikey 50  +137
    Mikey Fear 92 (90 Low fear 30 High Fear)  VIX 16.87
    Bulls 48.4  Bears 22.1  Ratio 2.19
    Mutial Fund Purchase/redemption: 1.20
    New Highs NYSE 70  NASDAQ 42
    New Lows  NYSE 34  NASDAQ 27
     
    Closing Prices

    US Stock 
    DJI 13900.13 +115.96 DJT 5820.75 +4.58 SPX 1496.94 +9.09
    DJU 473.91 +1.67
    US Debt Markets
    US Gov rates: 6 mo .14% 2 yr .25% 5 yr .776% 10 yr 1.88% 30 yr 3.07%
    Mortgage Rates 30 year 3.59 % 15 Yr 2.87%
    IEF (US 7-10 yr) 107.23 -.03 TLT (US 20 yr) 8.70 -.63



    Muni Bonds 111.61 +.06 Cal Muni(NCA) 10.46 +.10
    LQD (Investment Grade Corp)120.44 -.04 High Yield 93.75 +.29
    Commodities 
    CRB Commodities Index 293.22 -.59
    Gold  1615.50 +29.10 Silver 29.26 +.27
    Copper 3.57 +.02 Platinum 1616.50 -4.20
    Oil 92.63 -.48 RBOB 2.99 -.07 Nat Gas 3.46 +.04
    US Dollar Index
    Dollar Index 81.94 +.16
    US Dollar Long Term/ Intermediate Term up/ Daily Trend up/ Short term up

    All Market Trends:
    Short term trading rules:
    Initiate long positions when Intermediate and Daily Trends are green AND the Short term turns green from yellow or red  The best signal occurs on the second green signal. The first will usually reverse to red then buy the second green
    Take profits 3-5 days after 20 day high
    Enter  sell stop below the 20 day low or at 7% loss
    Commodities
    Gold: (GLD)    LongTerm/ Intermediate Term  Daily Trend/ Short term
    Silver: (SLV)   Long Term / Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Copper:(JCC) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Oil: (USO)       Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Gasoline (UGA) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/  Short term
    Nat Gas:(UNG)Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Commod (USCI) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Bond Markets
    US Bonds LT (TLT) Long Term/ Intermed Term/ Daily Trend/  Short term
    US Corp BBB (LQD)  Long Term/ IntermedTerm/ Daily Trend/ Short term 
    US Muni  (MUB)      Long Term IntermedTerm/ Daily Trend   Short Trend
    High Yield  (HYG)   Long Term/ IntermedTerm/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Utility stocks (XLU):Long Term/ IntermedTerm/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Stocks
    US ($DJI)     Long Term    / Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/  Short term
    Europe(IEV) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    China (FXI)    Long Term/ Intermediate Term Daily Trend/  Short term
    Brazil EWZ)  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    India  (PIN) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Emerg Mkt(EEM) Long Term/ Intermed Term/ Daily Trend/Short term
    Japan (EWJ)  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Stock Groups (updated 2-26
    Utilities (XLU)  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Water (FIW) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Health (XLV) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Food/Bev (PBJ) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Home Build(XHB) Long Term/ Intermed Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Retail (XRT) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Staples (XLP) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend Short term/
    Transports (IYT) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short Term
    Global Auto (CARZ)  Long Term/ Intermed term/ Daily Trend/ Short Term
    Shipping (SEA) Long Term/ Intermed Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Aerospace ( ITA) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Energy (XLE)  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Oil Expl (IEO) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Nat Gas (FCG) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short
    Finance (XLF)  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Brokers (IAI) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Insurance (IAK) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Reg Bank (IAT) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Cloud (SKYY) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Tech (XLK)  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Gold Miners (GDX) Long Term/ Intermed Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Materials (XLB) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Reits (IYR) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Communication(IYZ) Long Term/ Intermed Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Pharma (XPH) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Biotech (BBH) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term 

     

     
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