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Mikey's Short Term Trading Rules

1) Make up a list of stocks, commodities or ETF's to trade. This list should be names that have good earnings and high relative strength.
2) Monitor this list and throw out the weaker names
3) Buy only stocks or ETF's that are intermediate and daily up (green) and the market is Daily and intermediate term up (green)
4) Buy pullbacks on these stocks to the 20 and 50 day averages
Usually you get 4 to 6 20 day pullback buys and 2 or 3 50 day pullback buys in an intermediate term trend
5) More agressive traders can buy the 7 day average in the first 3 to 8 weeks of the uptrend.
6) Buy pullbacks not runups. A buy should not be easy or exciting but difficult and somewhat scary. DO NOT CHASE
7) Place stop at 5% below the buy price. Do not remove
8) Sell 3 to 5 days after the stock price takes out its most recent 2 week high with at least 15% gains
9) Uptrends that are 12 weeks or more may be ripe for a correction. The first 2 pullbacks to the 50 day are usually safe.
Intermediate term uptrends and downtrends generally last from 8 to 16 weeks with 12 weeks being the norm.
10) Shorting is a viable strategy in downtrends for experienced traders only. In general, reverse the above rules
11) Tweet Mikey @themarketshadow with questions or ideas

Wednesday, January 2, 2013

Shorts blown out as Fed pulls market back from the cliff.

    The shorts were blown out today as the Fed set up Cliff blew up their face. New highs were 460 on the NYSE and 245 on the NASDAQ. Volume was heavy with 4 billion and 2 billion respectively. The DJI closed up 308.41 to 13412. Gold and Silver rallied back to their recent breakdowns near their 50 day averages both are still in daily downtrends. Natural gas was the sole loser in commodities down .12 to 3.23. Oil closed up 1.30 to 93.12 and stayed in a daily uptrend. The Mikey 3 is now overbought at 145 and the AD line closed at a 2 year high at 71855.   The cliff is at 13065 and that is the number to watch on any sell offs.

    Mikey
    DJI Trend Summary
    Hourly Uptrend: 13104 12-31 (12 hrs)
    Daily Uptrend: 13412 on 1-2 (1 days)
    Intermediate Uptrend: at 13412 on 1-2(1 days)
    Long Term Uptrend 11315 on 11-1-10  2 years + 2 months
    IBD Market in confirmed uptrend 13104 12-31
    Long Term UP/ Intermediate down/ Daily Down/Short Term Down
    DJI Close 13412.55 +308.41

    Current Trading range   13043 - 13660
    Step Down trading Range 12471- 13043

    Average watch
    50 Hour Ave: 13128 Price below
    20 Day Ave: 13166 Price below
    50 Day Ave: 13056 Price above (no long positions if this line is red)
    20 Week Ave: 13195 Price below
    50 Week Ave: 13008 Price above
    200 Week Ave 11287 Price above
    Last high 9-14 13653 Last Low 11-15 12471 
     
    MACD 
    Short term (50 hour) Uptrend(6 Hours)
    MACD +33.85
    Daily trend (50 day) Uptrend 1 days 1-2
    MACD Daily +37.47 Negative Cross 1-2
    Intermediate trend (50 week) Neutral (1 days).signal 12-31 13104
    MACD Weekly (+57.68) Negative cross  10-23-12
    Long term trend (200 week) Up 25 months)...signal 12/1/10 11577
    MACD Monthly (+532.33) Negative Cross 11/8/12.
     
    Volume Readings
    Volume (Millions) NYSE 4058  NASDAQ 2053
    Advance/Decline NYSE +2543 NASDAQ +1872
    Mikey NYSE A/D line +71855 new high  Mikey NASDAQ A/D line -12985
    Trader Psychology
    Put/Call day .80 10 day .79 Put Prem/Call Prem .94 10 day .96
    Mikey 101 90 (Low fear 30 High Fear)VIX 14.68
    New Highs NYSE 460 new high  NASDAQ 245 new high  New Lows  NYSE 5 NASDAQ 17
      
    Closing Prices

    US Stocks
    DJIA 13412.55 +308.41 S/P 500 1462.42 +36.23 NASDAQ 3112.26 +92.75
    DJT 5435.74 +128.97 DJU 461.46 +8.37
    US Debt Markets
    US Gov rates: 6 mo .145% 2 yr .271% 5 yr .721% 10 yr 1.84% 30 yr  3.04%
    IEF (US 7-10 yr) 107.06 -.42  TLT (20 yr) 119.59 -1.59 High Yield 94.23 +.88
    MUB(NatMuni) 111.44 +.80 Cal Muni(NCA)10.26 +.23
    BND Total Bnd Ind 83.90 -.13
    Commodities 
    CRB Commodities Index 297.54 +2.53
    Gold  1688.80 +.13.00   Silver 31.01 +.79
    Copper 3.74 +.09 Platinum 1568.00 +25.20  
    Oil 93.12 +1.30 RBOB 2.79 +.03 Nat Gas .23 -.12
    US Dollar Index
    Dollar Index 79.95 +.06
    US Dollar Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term

    All Market Trends:
    Short term trading rules:
    Initiate long positions when Intermediate and Daily Trends are green AND the Short term turns green from yellow or red  (Caution: The signal is usually the second time it turns green)
    Take profits 3-5 days after 20 day high
    Enter  sell stop below the 20 day low or at 7% loss
    Commodities
    Gold:      LongTerm/ Intermediate Term  Daily Trend/ Short term
    Silver:    Long Term / Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Copper  :Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Oil:         Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Gasoline Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/  Short term
    Nat Gas :Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    CRB        Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Bond Markets
    US Bonds LT Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/  Short term
    US Corp BBB   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term 
    US Muni        Long Term Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend   Short Trend
    High Yield     Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Stocks
    US      Long Term    / Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/  Short term
    Europe Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    China     Long Term/ Intermediate Term Daily Trend/ / Short term
    Brazil  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    India   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Emerg Mkts   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/Short term
    Japan Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term


    Selected Stocks
    AAPLLong Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    BIDU Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    GOOG Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    QCOM Long Term/ Intermediate Term/Daily Trend/ Short term
    NOK Long Term/Intermediate Term/Daily Trend Short term
    VZ    Long Term/Intermediate Term/Daily Trend Short term
    T      Long Term/Intermediate Term/Daily Trend Short term
    FB     Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    MCD Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    YUM   Long Term/Intermediate Term/Daily Trend Short term
    WMT Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    JWN Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    COST Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    AMZN Long Term/Intermediate Term/Daily Trend Short term
    NKE Long term/ Intermediate Term Daily Trend/Short term
    DECK Long Term/Intermediate Term/Daily Trend Short term
    FDX Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    UPS  Long Term/Intermediate Term/Daily Trend Short term
    CVX Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    XOM Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    HFC Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    VLO Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    APA  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    DVN Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    SLB Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    HAL Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    LEN  Long term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    KBH Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    CAT Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/Short term
    DE     Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    DAL Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    LCC Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    NUE Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    X      Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    JPM   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    WFC Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    BAC Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    MA Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    V     Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    ADBE Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term 
    RHT Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    MSFT Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    IBM Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    MOLong Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    PGLong Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    CLXLong Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    MRKLong Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    PFELong Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    AETLong Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    BRK.BLong Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term




       


       
     
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