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Mikey's Short Term Trading Rules

1) Make up a list of stocks, commodities or ETF's to trade. This list should be names that have good earnings and high relative strength.
2) Monitor this list and throw out the weaker names
3) Buy only stocks or ETF's that are intermediate and daily up (green) and the market is Daily and intermediate term up (green)
4) Buy pullbacks on these stocks to the 20 and 50 day averages
Usually you get 4 to 6 20 day pullback buys and 2 or 3 50 day pullback buys in an intermediate term trend
5) More agressive traders can buy the 7 day average in the first 3 to 8 weeks of the uptrend.
6) Buy pullbacks not runups. A buy should not be easy or exciting but difficult and somewhat scary. DO NOT CHASE
7) Place stop at 5% below the buy price. Do not remove
8) Sell 3 to 5 days after the stock price takes out its most recent 2 week high with at least 15% gains
9) Uptrends that are 12 weeks or more may be ripe for a correction. The first 2 pullbacks to the 50 day are usually safe.
Intermediate term uptrends and downtrends generally last from 8 to 16 weeks with 12 weeks being the norm.
10) Shorting is a viable strategy in downtrends for experienced traders only. In general, reverse the above rules
11) Tweet Mikey @themarketshadow with questions or ideas

Wednesday, January 16, 2013

Oil intermediate term up Gold, Silver creep toward uptrend

The Fed's QE3 is finally warming up the commodities market.  Oil turned up on the intermediate term today and Gasoline is full on green now. The Gold and Silver markets are within a whisker of turning back up. The dollar continues to be beat up by the Fed.  The Mikey 7, 20 and 50 are now overbought as the DJI is approaching the Sept highs. Put/Call Ratios are very small at .67 and .76 on the 10 day. Put premiums have also fallen to .82 on the 10 day and the fear factor is non existent.  The most recent Bull/Bear is 2.38 to 1 Bullish which is a high bull to bear ratio.  New highs hit 403 on the NYSE and 163 for the NASDAQ both very healthy. The trend remains up but we are now overbought and the traders are not worried.

     
    DJI Trend Summary
    Long Term UP/ Intermediate UP/ Daily UP/Short Term UP
    DJI Close 13596.02 +84.79

    Hourly Uptrend: 13118 1-2 (77 hrs)
    Daily Uptrend: 13412 on 1-2 (12 days)
    Intermediate Uptrend: at 13412 on 1-2(12 days)
    Long Term Uptrend 11315 on 11-1-10  2 years + 2 months
    IBD Market in confirmed uptrend 13104 12-31
    Current Trading range   13043 - 13660
    Step Down trading Range 12471- 13043
    Average watch
    50 Hour Ave: 13480 Price above
    20 Day Ave: 13329 Price above
    50 Day Ave: 13114 Price above   (no long positions if this line is red)
    20 Week Ave: 13238 Price above
    50 Week Ave: 13040 Price above
    200 Week Ave 11349 Price above
    Last high 9-14 13653 Last Low 11-15 12471 
     
    MACD 
    Short term (50 hour) Uptrend(77 Hours)
    MACD +37.92
    Daily trend (50 day) Uptrend 12 days 1-2
    MACD Daily +116.49 Positive cross 1-3
    Intermediate trend (50 week) Uptrend (12 days).signal 12-31 13104
    MACD Weekly (+110.81) Positive Cross 1-7
    Long term trend (200 week) Uptrend  (26 months)...signal 12/1/10 11577
    MACD Monthly (+540.45) Negative Cross 11/8/12.
     
    Volume Readings
    Volume (Millions) NYSE 3602  NASDAQ 1711
    Advance/Decline NYSE +1582 NASDAQ +852
    Mikey NYSE A/D line +77500  Mikey NASDAQ A/D line -11316
    Trader Psychology
    Put/Call day .67 10 day .76 Put Prem/Call Prem .84 10 day .82
    Mikey 106 (90 Low fear 30 High Fear)  VIX 13.57
    Bulls 53.2 Bears 22.3  Ratio 2.38
    New Highs NYSE 403  NASDAQ 163  
    New Lows  NYSE 4 NASDAQ 9
      
    Closing Prices

    US Stocks
    DJIA 13596.02 +84.79 S/P 500 1480.94 +8.31 NASDAQ 3136 +18.46
    DJT 5681.28 +37.44  DJU 458.60 +1.19
    US Debt Markets
    US Gov rates: 6 mo .12% 2 yr 29% 5 yr .794 10 yr 1.88% 30 yr  3.07%
    Mortgage Rates 30 year 3.50% 15 Yr 2.84%
    IEF (US 7-10 yr) 106.75 -.51 TLT (20 yr) 119.01 -1.31 High Yield 94.40 +.15
    MUB(NatMuni) 112.42 +.02 Cal Muni(NCA)10.41 +.04
    BND Total Bnd Ind 83.79 -.14
    Commodities 
    CRB Commodities Index 300.33 +2.13
    Gold  1690.80 +7.60 Silver 31.81 +.28
    Copper 3.66 +.05 Platinum 1700.50 +6.40
    Oil 95.49 +1.25 RBOB 2.76 +.04 Nat Gas 3.49 +.05
    US Dollar Index
    Dollar Index 79.71 -.18
    US Dollar Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term

    All Market Trends:
    Short term trading rules:
    Initiate long positions when Intermediate and Daily Trends are green AND the Short term turns green from yellow or red  (Caution: The signal is usually the second time it turns green)
    Take profits 3-5 days after 20 day high
    Enter  sell stop below the 20 day low or at 7% loss
    Commodities
    Gold:      LongTerm/ Intermediate Term  Daily Trend/ Short term
    Silver:    Long Term / Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Copper  :Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Oil:         Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Gasoline Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/  Short term
    Nat Gas :Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    CRB        Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Bond Markets
    US Bonds LT Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/  Short term
    US Corp BBB   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term 
    US Muni        Long Term Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend   Short Trend
    High Yield     Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Stocks
    US      Long Term    / Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/  Short term
    Europe Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    China     Long Term/ Intermediate Term Daily Trend/  Short term
    Brazil  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    India   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Emerg Mkts   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/Short term
    Japan Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Selected Stocks (Updated 1/16)
    AEM Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    SLW Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    FCX Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    AAPLLong Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    BIDU Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    GOOG Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    QCOM Long Term/ Intermediate Term/Daily Trend/ Short term
    CRUS Long Term/ Intermediate Term/Daily Trend/ Short term
    NOK Long Term/Intermediate Term/Daily Trend Short term
    FB    Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    LNKD Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    MCD Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    YUM Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    CELGLong Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    AZN Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    AMGN   Long Term/Intermediate Term/Daily Trend Short term
    OPKLong Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    WMT Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    GLW  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    COST Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    AMZN Long Term/Intermediate Term/Daily Trend Short term
    NKE   Long term/ Intermediate Term Daily Trend/Short term
    DECK Long Term/Intermediate Term/Daily Trend Short term
    FDX Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    CVX Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    XOM Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    HFC Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    VLO Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    APA  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    SLB  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    HAL Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    LEN   Long term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    KBH   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    CAT Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/Short term
    DE     Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    DAL Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    LCC Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    JPM   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    WFC  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    BAC Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    MA  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    GS Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    V     Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    RHT Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    MSFT Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    INTC Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    IBM Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    RVBD Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    CRMLong Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    MRKLong Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    PFE  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    UNH Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    CI  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    CVSLong Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    WAGLong Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term

       


       
     
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