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Mikey's Short Term Trading Rules

1) Make up a list of stocks, commodities or ETF's to trade. This list should be names that have good earnings and high relative strength.
2) Monitor this list and throw out the weaker names
3) Buy only stocks or ETF's that are intermediate and daily up (green) and the market is Daily and intermediate term up (green)
4) Buy pullbacks on these stocks to the 20 and 50 day averages
Usually you get 4 to 6 20 day pullback buys and 2 or 3 50 day pullback buys in an intermediate term trend
5) More agressive traders can buy the 7 day average in the first 3 to 8 weeks of the uptrend.
6) Buy pullbacks not runups. A buy should not be easy or exciting but difficult and somewhat scary. DO NOT CHASE
7) Place stop at 5% below the buy price. Do not remove
8) Sell 3 to 5 days after the stock price takes out its most recent 2 week high with at least 15% gains
9) Uptrends that are 12 weeks or more may be ripe for a correction. The first 2 pullbacks to the 50 day are usually safe.
Intermediate term uptrends and downtrends generally last from 8 to 16 weeks with 12 weeks being the norm.
10) Shorting is a viable strategy in downtrends for experienced traders only. In general, reverse the above rules
11) Tweet Mikey @themarketshadow with questions or ideas

Tuesday, January 29, 2013

DJI nears all time highs Commodities warming up


Stocks are closing in on all time highs as the central banks are pushing asset and allowing inflationary pressures to build. Oil is pushing 100 again and the commodities index is read to turn positive. The US bond maket is still under pressure with yield rising to where they were before the last QE was launched. The Mikey50 is a whopping 211 meaning it is extremely overbought.  This is a top like reading.

Mikey
    DJI Trend Summary
    Long Term UP/ Intermediate UP/ Daily UP/Short Term UP
    DJI Close 13954.42 +72.49

    Hourly Uptrend: 13118 1-2 (123 hrs)
    Daily Uptrend: 13412 on 1-2 (19 days)
    Intermediate Uptrend: at 13412 on 1-2(19 days)
    Long Term Uptrend 11315 on 11-1-10  2 years + 2 months
    IBD Market in confirmed uptrend 13104 12-31
    Current Trading range   13043 - 13895
    Step Down trading Range 12471- 13043
    Resistence: 14196 From Oct 2007
    Support 1 13600
    Support 2 13360
    Support 3 12880
    Average watch
    50 Hour Ave: 13794 Price above
    20 Day Ave: 13562 Price above
    50 Day Ave: 13249 Price above   (no long positions if this line is red)
    20 Week Ave: 13289 Price above
    50 Week Ave: 13083 Price above
    200 Week Ave 11410 Price above
    Last high 1-29 13969  Last Low 11-15 12471 
    Group Trend changes of note:
    WMT To all trends up
    AXP To all trends up
     
    MACD 
    Short term (50 hour) Uptrend( 107 Hours)
    MACD +47.20
    Daily trend (50 day) Uptrend 19 days 1-2
    MACD Daily +192.53 Positive cross 1-3
    Intermediate trend (50 week) Uptrend (19 days).signal 12-31 13104
    MACD Weekly (+195.27) Positive Cross 1-7
    Long term trend (50 week) Uptrend  (26 months)...signal 12/1/10 11577
    MACD Monthly (+570.24) Positive Cross 1/8/12.
     
    Volume Readings
    Volume (Millions) NYSE 3843  NASDAQ 2011
    Advance/Decline NYSE +493 NASDAQ +239
    Mikey NYSE A/D line +80699 new high  NASDAQ A/D line -9785
    Trader Psychology
    Put/Call day .70 10 day .77  Put Prem/Call Prem .93 10 day .87
    Mikey 3  32 Mikey 7  91  Mikey 20  194  Mikey 50  211
    Mikey Fear 107 (90 Low fear 30 High Fear)  VIX 13.31
    Bulls 53.2 Bears 22.3  Ratio 2.38
    New Highs NYSE 307  NASDAQ 182
    New Lows  NYSE 14 NASDAQ  9
     
    Closing Prices

    US Stocks
    DJIA 13954.42 +72.49  S/P 500 1507.84 +7.56 NASDAQ 3153.66 -.64
    DJT 5874.60 -.96 DJU 472.88 +3.63
    US Debt Markets
    US Gov rates: 6 mo .12% 2 yr 285% 5 yr .904 10 yr 2.02% 30 yr  3.20%
    Mortgage Rates 30 year 3.59 % 15 Yr 2.91%
    IEF (US 7-10 yr) 105.94 -.17 TLT (US 20 yr) 116.92 -.68
    MUB(NatMuni) 111.45 -.07 Cal Muni(NCA) 10.42 -
    LQD (Investment Grade Corp) 119.59 -.41 High Yield 94.58 -.22
    Commodities 
    CRB Commodities Index 301.83 +1.64
    Gold  1660.80 +7.80 Silver 31.18 +.30
    Copper 3.69 +.03 Platinum 1678.90 +16.70
    Oil 97.58 +1.14 RBOB 2.97 +.04 Nat Gas 3.26 -.01
    US Dollar Index
    Dollar Index 79.62 -.25
    US Dollar Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term

    All Market Trends:
    Short term trading rules:
    Initiate long positions when Intermediate and Daily Trends are green AND the Short term turns green from yellow or red  The best signal occurs on the second green signal. The first will usually reverse to red then buy the second green
    Take profits 3-5 days after 20 day high
    Enter  sell stop below the 20 day low or at 7% loss
    Commodities
    Gold: (GLD)    LongTerm/ Intermediate Term  Daily Trend/ Short term
    Silver: (SLV)   Long Term / Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Copper:(JCC) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Oil: (USO)       Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Gasoline (UGA) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/  Short term
    Nat Gas:(UNG)Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Commod (USCI) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Bond Markets
    US Bonds LT (TLT) Long Term/ Intermed Term/ Daily Trend/  Short term
    US Corp BBB (LQD)  Long Term/ IntermedTerm/ Daily Trend/ Short term 
    US Muni  (MUB)      Long Term IntermedTerm/ Daily Trend   Short Trend
    High Yield  (HYG)   Long Term/ IntermedTerm/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Utility stocks (XLU):Long Term/ IntermedTerm/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Stocks
    US ($DJI)     Long Term    / Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/  Short term
    Europe(IEV) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    China (FXI)    Long Term/ Intermediate Term Daily Trend/  Short term
    Brazil EWZ)  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    India  (PIN) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Emerg Mkt(EEM) Long Term/ Intermed Term/ Daily Trend/Short term
    Japan (EWJ)  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Stock Groups (updated 1-29)
    Utilities (XLU)  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Water (FIW) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Health (XLV) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Food/Bev (PBJ) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Home Build(XHB) Long Term/ Intermed Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Retail (XRT) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Staples (XLP) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Transports (IYT) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short
    Global Auto (CARZ)  Long Term/ Intermed term/ Daily Trend/ Short
    Shipping (SEA) Long Term/ Intermed Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Aerospace ( ITA) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Energy (XLE)  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Oil Expl (IEO) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Nat Gas (FCG) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short Term
    Finance (XLF)  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Brokers (IAI) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Insurance (IAK) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Reg Bank (IAT) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Mortgage (KME) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Tech (XLK)  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Gold Miners (GDX) Long Term/ Intermed Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Materials (XLB) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Reits (IYR) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Communication(IYZ) Long Term/ Intermed Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Pharma (XPH) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Biotech (BBH) Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term 
    Selected Stocks (Updated 1/25)
    BRK.B Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    AEM Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    FCX  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    AAPLLong Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    AGU Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    BIDU Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    GOOG Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    QCOM Long Term/ Intermediate Term/Daily Trend/ Short term
    CRUS Long Term/ Intermediate Term/Daily Trend/ Short term
    NOK  Long Term/Intermediate Term/Daily Trend Short term
    FB    Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    MCD Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    CELG Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    BIIB  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    BMY Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    OPK  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    WMT Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    GLW  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    AMZN Long Term/Intermediate Term/Daily Trend Short term
    FDX Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    XOM Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    HFC Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    COP  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    COG Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    SLB  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    LEN   Long term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    CAT Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/Short term
    DAL Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    JPM   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    AXP Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    USB Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    GS  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    IBM Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    CRM Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    BMYLong Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    CI  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    DVA Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    WAGLong Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    CVS Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    JNJ Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    PG Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    NATURAL GAS PLAYS
    APC Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    EQT Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    COG Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    NBL Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    XEC Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    ECA Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    DVN Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    CHK Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    BUFFETT STOCKS
    JNJ, PG, DVA, IBM, USB,COP,WMT, AXP.CVS
       


       
     
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