Posting Times

Posts will be between 8:30 PM to 10:00 PM PST
Mikey's Short Term Trading Rules

1) Make up a list of stocks, commodities or ETF's to trade. This list should be names that have good earnings and high relative strength.
2) Monitor this list and throw out the weaker names
3) Buy only stocks or ETF's that are intermediate and daily up (green) and the market is Daily and intermediate term up (green)
4) Buy pullbacks on these stocks to the 20 and 50 day averages
Usually you get 4 to 6 20 day pullback buys and 2 or 3 50 day pullback buys in an intermediate term trend
5) More agressive traders can buy the 7 day average in the first 3 to 8 weeks of the uptrend.
6) Buy pullbacks not runups. A buy should not be easy or exciting but difficult and somewhat scary. DO NOT CHASE
7) Place stop at 5% below the buy price. Do not remove
8) Sell 3 to 5 days after the stock price takes out its most recent 2 week high with at least 15% gains
9) Uptrends that are 12 weeks or more may be ripe for a correction. The first 2 pullbacks to the 50 day are usually safe.
Intermediate term uptrends and downtrends generally last from 8 to 16 weeks with 12 weeks being the norm.
10) Shorting is a viable strategy in downtrends for experienced traders only. In general, reverse the above rules
11) Tweet Mikey @themarketshadow with questions or ideas

Friday, December 21, 2012

The world did not come to an end today

    I am happy to report that the world did not come to an end today.  I am surprised that the Fed did not float a rumor about it but they did have a bad day at the cliff.
    So what happened today?  The cliff deal fell apart so the market dropped.  That makes sense, right?  Well you know if you read this blog that the way the market goes up is when the FED sells dollars.

    Guess what, the debt deal problems caused the dollar to rally and the US bond market to rally. That is the flaw in their story.  If that is the case then the dollar sells off when a deal is done and so does the bond market and the stock market rallies. Make sense?  Then expect higher rates on a deal to get the budget under control. The FED is saying we will keep selling you the good stuff if you pretend that you are responsible.  Today was about bad acting.

    I am hearing that the fiscal Cliff is scaring investors to the sidelines. They all say they will return when the deal is done.  This is like 2008 when the treasury needed a deal for TARP and when the deal was done we had a one day rally and a crash. I am also hearing that things are so bad that the market should have crashed already. Some say it will still do that and some say that the underlying fundamental are still good.

    Confused? The fact is that we do not know how this is going to play out. We can follow price action and let prices tell us what big money is doing. This blog does not predict price action we watch for changes in the trend and then adjust to it. The short term market turned down today the daily and intermediate terms remained up.  DJI  remains in an uptrend the ceiling at 13344 and the floor being 13000.  Volume was heavy on options expirations today.


    Mikey
    DJI Trend Summary 
    Daily Uptrend  13248 on 12-11 10 days
    Intermediate Uptrend at 13034 on 11-7 13 days old
    Long Term Uptrend 11315 on 11-1-10 2 years old
    Last high 9-14 13653  Last Low  11-15 12471
    20 day average sell offs  since uptrend began 
    50 day average selloffs since uptrend began
    IBD Market in confirmed uptrend 11-23-12  13009
    Long Term UP/ Intermediate down/ Daily Neutral/Short Term up
    DJI Close 13190.84 -120.88
    Step up range: 13344 - 13650
    Current trading range 13043 - 13344
    Step down support range 12471- 12973

    Average watch
    50 Hour Ave: 13234 Price below
    20 Day Ave: 13118 Price above
    50 Day Ave: 13091 Price above (no long positions if this line is red)
    20 Week Ave: 13202 Price above
    50 Week Ave: 12984 Price above
    200 Week Ave 11056 Price above

    Overbought/Oversold Oscillator(Mikey reading) +150  to -150
    Take profits  at +150 readings  buy or cover at -150 readings
    3 day +2 N  7 day +33 N 20 day +62 N  50 day +63 N
    MACD Readings
    MACD Crosses: Negative cross = consolidation/correction Positive cross=uptrend
    Short term (50 hour) down (6 Hrs) signal 12-21
    MACD Hourly -23.03
    Daily trend (50 day) Up 10 days 12-11
    MACD Daily +68.81 Positive Cross 11-23
    Intermediate trend (50 week) up (13 days).signal 12-5 12932
    MACD Weekly (+51.27) Negative cross  10-23-12
    Long term trend (200 week) Up 25 months)...signal 12/1/10 11577
    MACD Monthly (+527.87) Negative Cross 11/8/12.

    Volume Readings
    Volume (Millions) NYSE 4715  NASDAQ 2499
    Advance/Decline NYSE -1031 NASDAQ -848
    Mikey NYSE A/D line +69990  Mikey NASDAQ A/D line -13999
    Trader Psychology
    Put/Call day 1.01  10 day .68 Put Prem/Call Prem .88  10 day .93
    New Highs NYSE 96  NASDAQ 46  New Lows  NYSE 25 NASDAQ 31
      
    Closing Prices

    US Stocks
    DJIA 13190.84 -120.84 S/P 500 1430.15 -13.54 NASDAQ 3021.01 -29.38
    DJT 5340.80 -17.01 DJU 457.63 -2.51
    US Debt Markets
    US Gov rates: 6 mo .145% 2 yr .276% 5 yr .758% 10 yr 1.77% 30 yr  2.93%
    IEF (US 7-10 yr) 107.63 +.29 TLT (20 yr) 122.16 +1.23 High Yield 93.38 -.52
    MUB(NatMuni) 110.81 -.03 Cal Muni(NCA)10.20 +.08
    BND Total Bnd Ind 84.52 +.12
    Commodities 
    CRB Commodities Index 294.13 -.36
    Gold  1660.10 +14.20 Silver 30.20 +.52
    Copper 3.56 +.02   Platinum 1536.90 -9.30
    Oil 88.66 -1.47  RBOB 2.72 -.02 Nat Gas 3.45-
    US Dollar Index and World Currencies
    Euro 1.3086 -.0060 Pound 1.5992 -.0110 Swiss Franc 1.0736 -.0053
    Canadian Dollar 1.0014 -.0056 Aussie Dollar 1.0420 -.0081 Yen .011875
    Dollar Index 79.71 +.40....Notice how the Yen and the dollar are joined at the hip
     
    All Market Trends:
    Short term trading rules:
    Initiate long positions when Intermediate and Daily Trends are green AND the Short term turns green from yellow or red 
    Take profits 3-5 days after 20 day high
    Enter  sell stop below the 20 day low
    Commodities
    Gold:      LongTerm/ Intermediate Term  Daily Trend/ Short term
    Silver:    Long Term / Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Copper  :Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Oil:         Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Gasoline Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/  Short term
    Nat Gas :Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    CRB        Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Bond Markets
    US Bonds LT Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/  Short term
    Intl  Treas       Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend /Short term
    Intl Corp          Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/  Short term
    US Muni        Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend   Short Trend
    High Yield     Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Currencies
    Aussie DollarLong Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ / Short term
    Brit PD         Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Euro             Long Term/Intermediate Term/Daily Trend Short term
    Yen               Long Term/ Intermediate Term/Daily Trend/  Short term
    Swiss            Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Can Dollar   Long term/ Intermediate Term Daily Trend/ Short term
    US Dollar   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Stocks
    US      Long Term    / Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/  Short term
    Europe Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    China     Long Term/ Intermediate Term Daily Trend/ / Short term
    Brazil  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    India   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Emerg Mkts   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/Short term
    Japan Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term

    Selected Stocks
    AAPLLong Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    AMZN  Long Term/Intermediate Term/Daily Trend Short term
    QCOM Long Term/ Intermediate Term/Daily Trend/ Short term
    FB Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    NKE   Long term/ Intermediate Term     Daily Trend/Short term
    MCD Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    JPM       Long Term    / Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    FDXLong Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    COST Long Term/ Intermediate Term Daily Trend/ / Short term
    APA  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    LEN  Long term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    CAT Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/Short term
    BIDU Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
 
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