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Mikey's Short Term Trading Rules

1) Make up a list of stocks, commodities or ETF's to trade. This list should be names that have good earnings and high relative strength.
2) Monitor this list and throw out the weaker names
3) Buy only stocks or ETF's that are intermediate and daily up (green) and the market is Daily and intermediate term up (green)
4) Buy pullbacks on these stocks to the 20 and 50 day averages
Usually you get 4 to 6 20 day pullback buys and 2 or 3 50 day pullback buys in an intermediate term trend
5) More agressive traders can buy the 7 day average in the first 3 to 8 weeks of the uptrend.
6) Buy pullbacks not runups. A buy should not be easy or exciting but difficult and somewhat scary. DO NOT CHASE
7) Place stop at 5% below the buy price. Do not remove
8) Sell 3 to 5 days after the stock price takes out its most recent 2 week high with at least 15% gains
9) Uptrends that are 12 weeks or more may be ripe for a correction. The first 2 pullbacks to the 50 day are usually safe.
Intermediate term uptrends and downtrends generally last from 8 to 16 weeks with 12 weeks being the norm.
10) Shorting is a viable strategy in downtrends for experienced traders only. In general, reverse the above rules
11) Tweet Mikey @themarketshadow with questions or ideas

Tuesday, November 27, 2012

Stock remain in intermediate down trend

    Stock sell off on dollar strength. Retail stocks get hit on strong sales. Hey that is what happened. IBD remained in confirmed uptrend but I don't see it yet. Still would be short or on the sidelines. Gold and silver pullback and are still hanging on to new uptrend. I would and will be shorting weakness if it starts here. The Mikey 50 went negative today and the Put/Call ratio ran and measly .79 today with the market selling off.  The Mikey fear is still very low at 96. These all indicate there is room for a large sell off.

    Mikey
    DJI Trend Summary 
    Daily Downtrend 13344 on 10-23 
    Intermediate Downtrend  at 12932 on 11-7 12 days old
    Long Term Uptrend 11315 on 11-1-10 2 years old
    Last high 9-14 13653  Last Low  11-15 12471
    20 day average rallies since downtrend began  1
    50 day averge rallies since uptrend  began 0
    IBD Market in confirmed uptrend 11-23-12  13009
     Long Term UP/ Intermediate Term down/ Daily Trend Down/Short Term up
    DJI Close 12878.13 -89.24
    Step up range: 13043 - 13344
    Current trading range 12471- 12973
    Step down support range 12000-12471

    Average watch
    50 Hour Ave: 12799 Price above
    20 Day Ave: 12899 Price below
    50 Day Ave: 13245 Price below (no long positions if this line is red)
    20 Week Ave: 13170 Price below
    50 Week Ave: 12929 Price above
    200 Week Ave 10973 Price above

    Overbought/Oversold Oscillator(Mikey reading) +150  to -150
    Take profits  at +150 readings  buy or cover at -150 readings
    3 day +48 OB  7 day +183 OB 20 day +15 N  50 day -1
    MACD Readings
    MACD Crosses: Negative cross = consolidation/correction Positive cross=uptrend
    Short term (50 hour) up (34 Hrs) signal 11-19
    MACD Hourly +31.29
    Daily trend (50 day) Down 23 days 10-23-12
    MACD Daily -112.08  Positive Cross 11-23
    Intermediate trend (50 week) Down (16 days).signal 11-7 12932
    MACD Weekly (+29.76) Negative cross  10-23-12
    Long term trend (200 week) Up (24 months)...signal 12/1/10 11577
    MACD Monthly (+525.49) Negative Cross 11/8/12.

    Volume Readings
    Volume (Millions) NYSE 3225  NASDAQ 1699
    Advance/Decline NYSE -347 NASDAQ -229
    Mikey NYSE A/D line +64893 Mikey NASDAQ A/D line -16806
    Trader Psychology
    Put/Call day .79 10 day .88  Put Prem/Call Prem  .93 10 day 1.20
    Bull/Bear Ratio 1.34  Bulls 37.2 %, Bears 27.7%
    Mutial Funds Buy/Redeem ratio 1.16
    VIX 15.92 Trin  1.84  10 day ave 1.03
    Mikey Fear 96 (20 high, 80 low)
    New Highs NYSE 111  NASDAQ 57 New Lows NYSE 13 NASDAQ 27
    % Stocks above 200 day ave 56% (above 50% intermediate term uptrend)
     
    Closing Prices

    US Stocks
    DJIA 12878.13 -89.24 S/P 500 1398.94 -7.35  NASDAQ 2967.79 -8.94
    DJT 5077.07 -7.42 DJU 446.18 +.30
    US Debt Markets
    US Gov rates: 6 mo .1420% 2 yr .2703% 5 yr .6466% 10 yr 1.64  30 yr  2.79
    IEF (US 7-10 yr) 108.57 +.25 TLT (20 yr) 125.20 +.40 High Yield 92.48 +.09
    MUB(NatMuni) 113.38+.02   Cal Muni(NCA)10.25 -.02
    BND Total Bnd Ind 84.90 +.08
    Commodities 
    CRB Commodities Index 297.77 +03
    Gold  1742.30 -7.30 Silver 33.98 -.16
    Copper 3.53 - Platinum 1618.50 +7.50
    Oil 87.21 -.63 RBOB 2.73 +.01 Nat Gas 3.76 +.03
    US Dollar Index and World Currencies
    Euro 1.2845 -.0031 Pound 1.5852 -.0002 Swiss Franc 1.0572 -0031
    Yen .11937 -.0017 Aussie 1.0455 -.0031 Canadian Dollar  1.0000 -.0009
    Dollar Index 80.42+.28
     
    All Market Trends:
    (long positions only when Intermediate term and Daily Trend is green)
    Commodities
    Gold:      LongTerm/ Intermediate Term  Daily Trend// Short term
    Silver:    Long Term / Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Copper  :Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Oil:         Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Gasoline Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/  Short term
    Nat Gas :Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    CRB        Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Bond Markets
    US Bonds LT Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/  Short term
    Intl  Treas       Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend /Short term
    Intl Corp          Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ / Short term
    US Muni        Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend   Short Trend
    High Yield     Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ / Short term
    Currencies
    Aussie DollarLong Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ / Short term
    Brit PD         Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Euro             Long Term/Intermediate Term/Daily Trend Short term
    Yen               Long Term/ Intermediate Term/Daily Trend/  Short term
    Swiss            Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Can Dollar   Long term/ Intermediate Term Daily Trend/ Short term
    US Dollar   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Stocks
    US      Long Term/     Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/  Short term
    Europe Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    China     Long Term/ Intermediate Term Daily Trend/ / Short term
    Brazil  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    India   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Emerg Mkts   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/Short term
    Japan Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
     
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