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Mikey's Short Term Trading Rules

1) Make up a list of stocks, commodities or ETF's to trade. This list should be names that have good earnings and high relative strength.
2) Monitor this list and throw out the weaker names
3) Buy only stocks or ETF's that are intermediate and daily up (green) and the market is Daily and intermediate term up (green)
4) Buy pullbacks on these stocks to the 20 and 50 day averages
Usually you get 4 to 6 20 day pullback buys and 2 or 3 50 day pullback buys in an intermediate term trend
5) More agressive traders can buy the 7 day average in the first 3 to 8 weeks of the uptrend.
6) Buy pullbacks not runups. A buy should not be easy or exciting but difficult and somewhat scary. DO NOT CHASE
7) Place stop at 5% below the buy price. Do not remove
8) Sell 3 to 5 days after the stock price takes out its most recent 2 week high with at least 15% gains
9) Uptrends that are 12 weeks or more may be ripe for a correction. The first 2 pullbacks to the 50 day are usually safe.
Intermediate term uptrends and downtrends generally last from 8 to 16 weeks with 12 weeks being the norm.
10) Shorting is a viable strategy in downtrends for experienced traders only. In general, reverse the above rules
11) Tweet Mikey @themarketshadow with questions or ideas

Friday, November 23, 2012

    Gasoline usage in California has dropped from 9 million gallons a day in 2007 to just over 5 million gallons a day this year. The price has risen from 3.29 in Dec of 2007 to 3.69 today.  Make sense?   I am sure some egghead from the gasoline industry can come up with a good reason for us, but the point is that is I would have told you this would happen in 2007 you would have shorted gasoline prices. This points out the fact that economic realities and prices may not make sense.  If you invest you have to go with the trend not reality.  Keep it simple.

    Facebook  24.45 is completing a 4 month base and is now in an intermdiate term uptrend. 

    Mikey
    DJI Trend Summary For Wed 11-21
    Daily Downtrend 13344 on 10-23 
    Intermediate Downtr end  at 12932 on 11-7 12 days old
    Long Term Uptrend 11315 on 11-1-10 2 years old
    Last high 9-14 13653  Last Low  11-15 12471
    20 day average rallies since downtrend began  1
    50 day averge rallies since uptrend  began 0
    IBD Market in correction 10-13 13344
     Long Term UP/ Intermediate Term Up/ Daily Trend Down/Short Term up
    DJI Close 12836.89 +48.38
    Step up range: 13043 - 13344
    Current trading range 12471- 12973
    Step down support range 12000-12471

    Average watch
    50 Hour Ave: 12711 Price above
    20 Day Ave: 12907 Price below
    50 Day Ave: 13249 Price below (no long positions if this line is red)
    20 Week Ave: 13154 Price below
    50 Week Ave: 12904 Price below
    200 Week Ave 10973 Price above

    Overbought/Oversold Oscillator(Mikey reading) +150  to -150
    Take profits  at +150 readings  buy or cover at -150 readings
    3 day +149 OB  7 day +18 N  20 day -18 N  50 day +23
    MACD Readings
    MACD Crosses: Negative cross = consolidation/correction Positive cross=uptrend
    Short term (50 hour) up (20 Hrs) signal 11-19
    MACD Hourly +42.17
    Daily trend (50 day) Down 21 days 10-23-12
    MACD Daily -154.34 Positive Cross 11-23
    Intermediate trend (50 week) Down (12 days).signal 11-7 12932
    MACD Weekly (+31.66) Negative cross  10-23-12
    Long term trend (200 week) Up (24 months)...signal 12/1/10 11577
    MACD Monthly (+518.78) Negative Cross 11/8/12.

    Volume Readings
    Volume (Millions) NYSE 3096  NASDAQ 1402
    Advance/Decline NYSE +1053 NASDAQ +702
    Mikey NYSE A/D line +63691 Mikey NASDAQ A/D line -18015 
    Trader Psychology
    Put/Call day .77 10 day .95  Put Prem/Call Prem  1.14 10 day 1.24
    Bull/Bear Ratio 1.34  Bulls 37.2 %, Bears 27.7%
    Mutial Funds Buy/Redeem ratio 1.16
    VIX 15.31 Trin  .95  10 day ave .99
    Mikey Fear 99 (20 high, 80 low)
    New Highs NYSE 86  NASDAQ 28  New Lows NYSE 33 NASDAQ 42
    % Stocks above 200 day ave 52% (above 50% intermediate term uptrend)
     
    Closing Prices
    Stock Watch
    Facebook (FB) 24.45 Long Term Intermediate  Daily Short term
    Apple (AAPL) 564     Long Term Intermediate     Daily     Short term
    Google GOOG 665.87 Long Term   Intermediate   Daily   Short term
    Micosoft (MSFT)  Long Term Intermediate Daily Short term
    KORS 51.21Long Term Intermediate Daily Short term
    MLNX 84.41Long Term Intermediate Daily Short term
    V 146.66Long Term Intermediate Daily Short term 
    OCN 34.60 Long Term Intermediate Daily Short term
    LULU 70.29  Long Term Intermediate Daily Short term
    SLCA 16.07 Long Term Intermediate Daily Short term

    US Stocks
    DJIA 12836.89 +48.38  S/P 500 1391.03 +3.22 NASDAQ 2926.55 +9.87
    DJT 4997.18 +14.28 DJU 441.05 -1.75
    US Debt Markets
    US Gov rates: 6 mo .1413% 2 yr .2581% 5 yr .6647% 10 yr 1.67% 30 yr  2.82
    IEF (US 7-10 yr) 108.17 -.18 TLT (20 yr) 124.29 -.11 High Yield 92.13 +.04
    MUB(NatMuni) 113.41 -.02 Cal Muni(NCA)10.48 -.01
    BND Total Bnd Ind 84.73 -
    Commodities 
    CRB Commodities Index 297.59 +1.08
    Gold  1728.20 +1.70 Silver 33.34 +.29
    Copper 3.50 - Platinum 1583.90 +10.90
    Oil 87.38 +.37 RBOB 2.75 +.03 Nat Gas 3.90 +.07
    US Dollar Index and World Currencies
    Euro 1.2733 +.0003 Pound 1.5784 +.0026 Swiss Franc 1.0480 +.0010
    Yen .11884 -.0129 Aussie 1.0375 -.0029 Canadian Dollar  ..9978 +.0005
    Dollar Index 80.96 -.07
     
    All Market Trends:

    Commodities
    Gold:      LongTerm/ Intermediate Term  Daily Trend// Short term
    Silver:    Long Term / Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Copper  :Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Oil:         Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Gasoline Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/  Short term
    Nat Gas :Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    CRB        Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Bond Markets
    US Bonds LT Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/  Short term
    Intl  Treas       Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend /Short term
    Intl Corp          Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ / Short term
    US Muni        Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend   Short Trend
    High Yield     Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ / Short term
    Currencies
    Aussie DollarLong Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ / Short term
    Brit PD         Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Euro             Long Term/Intermediate Term/Daily Trend Short term
    Yen               Long Term/ Intermediate Term/Daily Trend/  Short term
    Swiss            Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Can Dollar   Long term/ Intermediate Term Daily Trend/ Short term
    US Dollar   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Stocks
    US      Long Term/     Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/  Short term
    Europe Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Germany Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    China     Long Term/ Intermediate Term Daily Trend/ / Short term
    Brazil  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    India   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Emerg Mkts   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/Short term
    Japan Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
     
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