Posting Times

Posts will be between 8:30 PM to 10:00 PM PST
Mikey's Short Term Trading Rules

1) Make up a list of stocks, commodities or ETF's to trade. This list should be names that have good earnings and high relative strength.
2) Monitor this list and throw out the weaker names
3) Buy only stocks or ETF's that are intermediate and daily up (green) and the market is Daily and intermediate term up (green)
4) Buy pullbacks on these stocks to the 20 and 50 day averages
Usually you get 4 to 6 20 day pullback buys and 2 or 3 50 day pullback buys in an intermediate term trend
5) More agressive traders can buy the 7 day average in the first 3 to 8 weeks of the uptrend.
6) Buy pullbacks not runups. A buy should not be easy or exciting but difficult and somewhat scary. DO NOT CHASE
7) Place stop at 5% below the buy price. Do not remove
8) Sell 3 to 5 days after the stock price takes out its most recent 2 week high with at least 15% gains
9) Uptrends that are 12 weeks or more may be ripe for a correction. The first 2 pullbacks to the 50 day are usually safe.
Intermediate term uptrends and downtrends generally last from 8 to 16 weeks with 12 weeks being the norm.
10) Shorting is a viable strategy in downtrends for experienced traders only. In general, reverse the above rules
11) Tweet Mikey @themarketshadow with questions or ideas

Friday, November 16, 2012

Fiscal Cliff ...They are going to throw the kitchen sink at this thing

    This blog will not enter into a discussion on the economics of the private sector or the government or the President or moves by foreign governments or anything that does not make you  money. I will let the expert sweet talkers make sense out of the price moves. I will say that the sense comes after most of the price move takes place.

    The market is a place where egos come to be gratified.  The idea of predicting the outcome of the stock market, the bond market or the economy is the reward.  The money you make tells everyone that you were right.  That kind of thinking will ultimately kill you. To be successful you must focus on direction.  Do not predict anything because unless you are the Fed. .  Admit you do not know anything and go with the price.  This is called detachment. You must also accept the outcome of  markets and not fight the price. Remain focused on price and be disciplined. Do not fight the price.  I cannot stress this enough.

    This blog will spot the moves as they take place and let you know what is happening before you feel compelled to take a loss because the news is so bad. That being said it appears that the news is not going to be pretty over the next 6 months to a year.  There are reasons for this other than what will be said.  This blog will focus on making or saving money.  Just track the trends and play it by the book.  Don't try to be a hero and protect your capital.    The sun will shine again at some other point in time and then we can go when the price tells us too.
    The trend remains down wait on the sideline until it changes.

    Mikey
    DJI Trend Summary
    Daily Downtrend 13344 on 10-23 
    Intermediate Downtrend  at 12932 on 11-7 5 days old
    Long Term Uptrend 11315 on 11-1-10 2 years old
    Last high 9-14 13653  Last Low  11-15 12471
    20 day average rallies since downtrend began  0
    50 day averge rallies since uptrend  began 0
    IBD Market in correction 10-13 13344
     Long Term UP/ Intermediate Term Up/ Daily Trend Down/Short Term up
    DJI Close 12588.88 +45.93
    Step up range: 13043 - 13344
    Current trading range 12471- 12973
    Step down support range 12000-12966

    Average watch
    50 Hour Ave: 12739 Price below
    20 Day Ave: 13011 Price below
    50 Day Ave: 13287 Price below (no long positions if this line is red)
    20 Week Ave: 13153 Price below
    50 Week Ave: 12891 Price below
    200 Week Ave 10973 Price above

    Overbought/Oversold Oscillator(Mikey reading) +150  to -150
    Take profits  at +150 readings  buy or cover at -150 readings
    3 day -81 7 day -135 OS 20 day -99 OS  50 day +9
    MACD Readings
    MACD Crosses: Negative cross = consolidation/correction Positive cross=uptrend
    Short term (50 hour) down (43 Hrs) signal 11-7
    MACD Hourly -64.01
    Daily trend (50 day) Down 18 days 10-23-12
    MACD Daily -203.89 Negative cross 9-26
    Intermediate trend (50 week) Down (8 days).signal 11-7 12932
    MACD Weekly (+60.05) Negative cross  10-23-12
    Long term trend (200 week) Up (24 months)...signal 12/1/10 11577
    MACD Monthly (+502.19) Negative Cross 11/8/12.

    Volume Readings
    Volume (Millions) NYSE 3957  NASDAQ 2140
    Advance/Decline NYSE +1474 NASDAQ +443
    Mikey NYSE A/D line +59965 Mikey NASDAQ A/D line -20023 
    Trader Psychology
    Put/Call day 1.02 10 day .94  Put Prem/Call Prem  1.59 10 day 1.16
    Bull/Bear Ratio 1.33  Bulls 38.3 %, Bears 28.7%
    Mutial Funds Buy/Redeem ratio 1.16
    VIX 16.49 Trin  1.29 10 day ave 1.26
    Mikey Fear 94 (20 high, 80 low)
    New Highs NYSE 18  NASDAQ 13  New Lows NYSE 153 NASDAQ 173
    % Stocks above 200 day ave 44% (above 50% intermediate term uptrend)

    Closing Prices
     
    US Stocks
    DJIA 12588.34 +45.93  S/P 500 1359.88 +6.55 NASDAQ 2853.15 +16.18
    DJT 4891.27 -22.63 DJU 443.08 +5.03
    US Debt Markets
    US Gov rates: 6 mo .1362% 2 yr .2460% 5 yr .6217% 10 yr 1.58% 30 yr  2.73
    IEF (US 7-10 yr) 109.05 +.99 TLT (20 yr) 126.50 -.01  High Yield 90.58 -.09
    MUB(NatMuni) 112.97 +.18 Cal Muni(NCA)10.44 +.15
    BND Total Bnd Ind 84.95 -.05
    Commodities 
    CRB Commodities Index 293.56 +.72
    Gold  1714.70 +.90 Silver 32.37 -.30
    Copper 3.50 -.02 Platinum 1561.80 -11.50
    Oil 86.92 +1.05   RBOB 2.71 +.10 Nat Gas 3.79 +.09
    US Dollar Index and World Currencies
    Euro 1.2651 -.0029 Pound 1.5723 +.0032 Swiss Franc 1.0408 -.0029
    Yen .12068 -.0020 Aussie 1.0355 +.0011 Canadian Dollar  .9933 +.0002
    Dollar Index 81.31 +.17
     
    All Market Trends:

    Commodities
    Gold:      LongTerm/ Intermediate Term  Daily Trend// Short term
    Silver:    Long Term / Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Copper  :Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Oil:         Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Gasoline Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/  Short term
    Nat Gas :Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    CRB        Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Bond Markets
    US Bonds LT Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/  Short term
    Intl  Treas       Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend /Short term
    Intl Corp          Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ / Short term
    US Muni        Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend   Short Trend
    High Yield     Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ / Short term
    Currencies
    Aussie DollarLong Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ / Short term
    Brit PD         Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Euro             Long Term/Intermediate Term/Daily Trend Short term
    Yen               Long Term/ Intermediate Term/Daily Trend/  Short term
    Swiss            Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Can Dollar   Long term/ Intermediate Term Daily Trend/ Short term
    US Dollar   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
    Stocks
    US      Long Term/     Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/  Short term
    Europe Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Germany Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    China     Long Term/ Intermediate Term Daily Trend/ / Short term
    Brazil  Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    India   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
    Emerg Mkts   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/Short term
    Japan Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
     
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